TRB2007 MA

All Hazards Risk ManagementChallenges & Opportunities: 

All Hazards Risk Management Challenges & Opportunities Mark Abkowitz Vanderbilt University 2007 Annual TRB Meeting

Recent Risk Management Developments: 

Recent Risk Management Developments Dramatic shift in focus to security (intentional acts) Allocation of resources away from natural hazards & man-made accidents Hurricane Katrina exposes the downside of this decision-making Lesson learned – We cannot “stovepipe” risk management

Slide3: 

Security $ Risk Security Risks Safety Risks A B C Potential Tradeoffs in Isolated Management of Safety and Security Risk

The Emergence of All Hazards Risk Management (AHRM): 

The Emergence of All Hazards Risk Management (AHRM) Individual & collective risk are evaluated in a unified context natural hazards man-made accidents intentional acts Several advantages to this approach understand & prioritize among the risks being faced identify risk management strategies that offer the greatest return on investment have confidence that a systematic & comprehensive approach is being used

Slide5: 

Natural Disasters Man-Made Accidents Intentional Acts All Hazards All Hazards Risk Management Components

How Is This Possible?: 

How Is This Possible? Safety & security risk management share a common objective …. To reduce the likelihood & consequences of undesirable events so as to protect human health, quality of life & the environment

Consequential Impacts: 

Consequential Impacts Fatalities & injuries Property damage Traffic delay Business disruption Evacuation Environmental clean-up Higher insurance premiums Litigation costs & punitive damages Diminished investor & consumer confidence

An Ambitious Task: 

An Ambitious Task Highways Railroads Navigable waterways Pipelines Air transport networks Fixed facilities traffic management centers terminals transfer and storage sites rest areas Infrastructure hot spots bridges tunnels “Vehicles” that use these facilities Transportation infrastructure is typically large & diverse, comprised of a variety of system components:

Further Complications: 

Further Complications Targets include historical, cultural & economic “iconic” structures in close proximity to the transportation system National landmarks Government buildings Religious shrines Elements of the transportation system itself may also be targets Bridges Tunnels

Natural Hazards: 

Natural Hazards Avalanche Drought Earthquake Flood Fog Hail Heat Hurricane/Tropical Storm Landslide Snow & Ice Thunderstorm/ Lightning Tornado/Cyclone Tsunami Wildfire Wind Focus on consequence mitigation

Man-Made Accidents: 

Man-Made Accidents Multiple causes Human error Poor design Faulty technology Institutional failure Focus on prevention & consequence mitigation Lower societal tolerance for these events

Intentional Acts: 

Intentional Acts Types Violent crime (assault, theft, arson, murder) Sabotage Attacks on critical infrastructure or assets Disruption of high profile events Key considerations Threat and vulnerability of potential target Consequences of a successful attack Focus on prevention & consequence mitigation Even lower societal tolerance?

Determining Likelihood & Consequence: 

Determining Likelihood & Consequence Coast Guard National Response Center Marine Accident Database Federal Railroad Administration, Railroad Accident Database Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration Pipeline Accident Database Hazardous Materials Incident Database Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, Truck Accident Data U.S. Bureau of the Census, Demographic Data Environmental Protection Agency Hazardous Waste Facility Database National Emission Inventory Toxic Release Inventory Safe Drinking Water Information System Superfund Information System Enforcement and Compliance Database National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Storm Events Database Drought Information Center Tsunami Database U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics Political boundaries Urban areas Transportation networks U.S. Geological Survey Spatial Hazard Events & Losses Database National Hydrography Dataset Landslide Incidence & Susceptibility Data Earthquake Hazard & Incident Data Volcano Incident Data Tornado Data U.S. Fire Administration, Fire Incident Data Federal Emergency Management Agency, Flood Data Federal Bureau of Investigation, Crime Database

Challenging Questions: 

Challenging Questions Should risks associated with natural hazards, man-made accidents & intentional acts be weighted differently? How to normalize qualitative and quantitative measures of safety and security likelihood & consequence? Use of expert panel needed to provide appropriate guidance?

Case Study Scenario: 

Case Study Scenario Terminal facility manager of a major national freight railroad Responsible for investing (limited) available risk management resources Terminal facilities consist primarily of railroad yards where railcars are transferred from one train to another Many yards located in densely populated areas & involve a large number of hazardous materials shipments For each yard, risks are estimated based on identified hazards & the consequences of corresponding events

Slide16: 

TOTAL ALL HAZARD RISK Natural Disaster Risk Unintentional Man-Made Risk Intentional Act Risk Risk Summary Report: Yard No. 10-683

Slide17: 

Natural Disaster Risk Report: Yard No. 10-683

Case Study Results: 

Case Study Results Yard No. 10-683 warrants immediate attention Tornado risk management is a high priority there Process moves forward to a more detailed evaluation existing level of tornado preparedness improvements that are practical & cost-effective whether improvements can be co-financed by government and industry Need to also consider potential value-added of improvements in mitigating the risks associated with other natural, accidental & intentional hazards e.g., a call-out system to notify the affected population of a tornado alert could also be used for notification of a bomb threat or chemical release

Concluding Remarks: 

Concluding Remarks The need for practicing all-hazards transportation risk management has come of age – and so has the ability to assess risks with this perspective in mind Rather than managing safety and security risks in separate silos, all hazards can be evaluated, controlled & monitored in a single, integrated fashion As a result, better overall risk management strategies can emerge and the likelihood of producing undesirable risk management results can be avoided The net result is the best protection we can provide society with the means that are available