2006 poll pp sept11

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll  House 2006 and President 2008 Polls: 

Cook Political Report/ RT Strategies Poll House 2006 and President 2008 Polls 10 am September 8, 2006 Thomas Riehle, Partner, RT Strategies (Additional analysis by Peter Ventimiglia of Lombardo Consulting Group) REPORT President 2008 Election RT Strategies, LLC 806 D Street SE * Washington, D.C. * 20003 * 202 544 2550 www.rtstrategies.com House 2006 Election

Labor Day Look at Midterm Elections: 

Labor Day Look at Midterm Elections House 2006 Election Conducted August 25-27, 2006 N=801 registered voters nationwide, Margin of Error + 3.4%, And focus on R.V.’s who are N=300 Democrats and Democratic leaners (+ 5.7%), and N=291 Republicans and Republican leaners (+ 5.7%). President 2008 Election … and looking ahead to 2008 One caveat: Registered voters are hard to reach the last week of August. We don’t see data problems, but we learned again who vacations and who doesn’t. Voters aren’t home, but non-voters are. Why would political insiders in a state (we’re looking at you, Connecticut, Michigan) schedule a primary in August?

“Lack of Leadership” is an Indicator Fish: 

“Lack of Leadership” is an Indicator Fish From Roper Reports U.S. in-person survey of 1,878 adults nationwide conducted May-June 2006. www.gfkamerica.com Observations increase when pols are acting badly: Watergate (1973-74), anti-tax revolt (1979), Clinton impeachment era (1998-2000) and again today. Who cares most? Independent voters Who pays the price? Incumbents

Bush Approval Ratings: 

Recovery fizzles A late spring recovery led to abiding improvement, but indications of a second recovery in late July and early August fizzle. Bush fails to convert not sure’s to approval, or soft disapproval to not sure, and now is back down to early April levels. Intense negative at 46%--is it steady, or rising to 50%+ strong disapprove? House 2006 Election Bush Approval Ratings President 2008 Election Registered Voters

Party Control Preference: 

Registered Voters Party Control Preference Regardless of how you might plan to vote in your own district, which party would you like to see in control of Congress after the congressional elections in November? House 2006 Election Northeast: 61-31 Midwest: 49-40 South: 47-45 West: 48-41 (Pacific Coast: 60-29)

Motivation to Vote: 

Motivation to Vote 10s are more likely to want Dems to control Congress (56% vs 51% of all RV’s) Disapprove of job performance of Congress (61% vs 58% of all RV’s) 10s more likely to be Dems (39% vs 30%) And are disproportionately White Suburban Female Some college experience House 2006 Election

Who is Going to Win the House?: 

Who is Going to Win the House? 30-House race IVR polling project Majority Watch by Constituent Dynamics (Seattle) and RT Strategies www.constituentdynamics.com / mw/2006/index2.html Bottom line: 25 R seats, 5 D seats, 1000 interviews per district 5 R seats significantly vulnerable, 8R somewhat vulnerable for D +13 (5 R seats the R significantly ahead, plus 2R somewhat ahead) 5 D seats the D leads significantly (4) or somewhat (1) It might come down to whether D’s win 2 or 3 out of 5 R seats that are statistical tie: CO-07, KY-04, NM-01, IL-06, WA-08 House 2006 Election

Republican 2008 Primary: 

Republican 2008 Primary President 2008 Election Giuliani doubles McCain among self-ID’d Republicans. GOPers: RUDY 35% McC 18% Indies: RUDY 24% McC 25% ------------------------------ Giuliani leads with GOP/Leaner Women, also Men GOP/Leaner Women: RUDY 34% McC 16% GOP/Leaner Men: RUDY 31% McC 24% ------------------------------ Giuliani leads among all GOP/Leaner age groups except 65+

Happy Republicans = GiulianiUnhappy Republicans = McCain: 

Happy Republicans = Giuliani Unhappy Republicans = McCain Republicans/Republican-leaners who support Giuliani for the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination are: significantly more approving of President Bush, think that the country is going in the “Right Direction” and approve of the job that Congress is doing, Among McCain voters, majorities believe the country is on “Wrong Track,” and disapprove of the job Congress is doing. President 2008 Election

Despite it All, Rudy: 

Despite it All, Rudy Majorities of Republicans aged 18-64 believe that the GOP should nominate Giuliani even after hearing criticisms of his stances on key social issues. Support in the face of criticisms is strongest among those 18-34, where 7 in 10 think GOP should nominate him President 2008 Election

Embraceable You: 

Embraceable You President 2008 Election On a 0-to-100 scale, like as a person… Giuliani likeability 13 + points higher among self-identified Republicans (73.1) than among all voters (59.4), McCain’s likeability among Reps (57.9) only 3 points higher than among all voters (54.8) Clinton likeability 37.1 among men, but 50.1 among women—but her 50.1 among women is the same as Kerry (50.1)… not as good as Edwards (53.5), McCain (55.0) or Giuliani (62.1)!

Democratic 2008 Primary: 

Democratic 2008 Primary President 2008 Election If she is the nominee… …I am worried that she cannot win the election for President 49% …she’ll have as good a chance as any Democratic nominee to be elected President 46%

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Pollsand special thanks toPeter Ventimiglia,Lombardo Consulting Group1850 M Street, Suite 430  202.223.3460: 

Cook Political Report/ RT Strategies Polls and special thanks to Peter Ventimiglia, Lombardo Consulting Group 1850 M Street, Suite 430 202.223.3460 Thomas Riehle, Partner RT Strategies, LLC 806 D Street SE * Washington, D.C. * 20003 * 202 544 2550 www.rtstrategies.com and www.constituentdynamics.com