Colin Butler SD Oct2

Climate Change &Sustainable Development Dr Colin ButlerNCEPH: 

Climate Change & Sustainable Development Dr Colin Butler NCEPH Climate change & health short course Oct 2, 2003

Outline: 

Outline The Peasant’s Revolt .. a metaphor for SD Inequality in the Global Village SD: more than sustainability – more than development Obstacles to development Public private partnerships GHG emissions – a weapon? Happy ending??

The Peasant’s Revolt, 1381: 

The Peasant’s Revolt, 1381 “Richard II, now 14, is presented with a list of demands by Wat Tyler at Mile End June 14 and replies with empty promises to demands for abolition of serfdom, the poll tax, restrictions on labor and trade, and game laws, with a ceiling of fourpence per acre on land rents and a ceiling on road tolls.”

Now: 

Now “nature in the raw” US Bd buffer

Future: 

Future “nature in the raw” US Bd buffer

Future?: 

Future? “nature in the raw” US Bd buffer

Nice ideas: 

Nice ideas Tobin Tax Universal removal of subsidies Lomborg’s exhortation to fix poverty Recognition of “natural debt” Leapfrog fund for ozone depleting substance replacements 0.7% of GNP for genuine foreign development Debt cancellation A new Marshall Plan (Al Gore)

Global Lorenz curve & Gini coefficient (1997) (US$): 

Global Lorenz curve & Gini coefficient (1997) (US$)

Global income inequality (US$) 1964-2000: 

Global income inequality (US$) 1964-2000 raw data World Bank, UN population division

Slide10: 

Global income inequality (PPP$) 1960-1995

PPP limitations: 

PPP limitations Applies to domestic rather than global purchasing power Ignores public goods, such as governance, personal security and food safety Very limited data sets Measure applied selectively

paying for TB treatment: 

paying for TB treatment Tanzania - 500 hours Switzerland - 84 minutes WHO, cited by Guardian Weekly Sep 11-17, 2003

Maximum & minimum life expectancy: A widening gap : 

Maximum & minimum life expectancy: A widening gap Raw data: Oeppen and Vaupel, 2002, UN Population Division

Slide14: 

Nancy Scheper-Hughes: Keeping an eye on the global traffic in human organs, Lancet (2003) 361: 1645-8.

Slide15: 

Giovanni Diffidenti/AP PHOTOS)

Sustainable Development: 

Sustainable Development Sustainability Development

Development: 

Development Risks bursting of consumption balloon Risks strengthening of competitors

Non-development: 

Non-development Perpetuates inequality, resentment, immorality Still risks bursting of consumption balloon

SD & Australia: 

SD & Australia Claiming Australia is a modest contributor to climate change and that countries in the Third World must first sign the Kyoto Protocol is disingenuous, at best. per cap Natural Debt Australia 70t 4.1t India 2.7t 0.33t Ratio 26 12.4

Obstacles to development: 

Obstacles to development No “fifth world” to exploit No cheap fossil fuels Limited capacity (including corruption) Risk of adverse global environmental change vs Robots? .. a substitute 5th world More knowledge? Better understanding of demographic dividend?

Public private partnerships: 

Public private partnerships Adam Smith – promotion of private goods could enhance public good of prosperity David Ricardo – free trade could escape zero sum game limitations

Adam Smith: 

Adam Smith “People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.”

Slide24: 

Comparative advantage: A tale of 10 workers pre-specialisation

Slide25: 

Comparative advantage: A tale of 10 workers post-specialisation

List/Mehmet: 

List/Mehmet Mutual gain sustainable only if power remains roughly equal Production may increase but price determined by supply, demand and market power Specialisation may lock in disadvantage eg coffee vs software

Slide27: 

The Economist

Oxfam (2003): 

Oxfam (2003) "Rich countries overplayed their hand and misjudged the strength of feeling and unity of the developing world, who want to make trade fair and have a stake in global prosperity"

GHG emissions – a weapon?: 

GHG emissions – a weapon? In a global village – IF climate change becomes severe – GHG emissions from developing countries may be seen as a weapon (even if the Third World suffers disproportionately) This COULD drive sustainability transition from enlightened self-interest (Magna Carta metaphor)

Magna Carta: 

Magna Carta “granted by King John of England to the English barons in 1215, and considered the basis of English constitutional liberties. King John's military failures, his stringent taxation, and his abuse of privileges provoked his barons to rebellion. A group of barons drew up a charter, which they sent to the king for confirmation. When John refused, the barons captured the city of London. John met the barons at Runnymede on June 15 and sealed and issued the charter.”

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Failure of global democracy fuels global environmental experiment Sustainable development will remain largely rhetorical until/if high income populations realise (comparative) climatic/ecosystem stability is in their own self-interest Delaying this recognition delays SD, risks failure of adaptation and enhanced “human greenlash”

Slide33: 

Impacts of ecosystem/climate change

Lake Tanganyika: 

Lake Tanganyika Verschuren, Nature, 2003

Lake Tanganyika: 

Lake Tanganyika “The human implications of such subtle, but progressive, environmental changes are potentially dire in this densely populated region of the world, where large lakes are essential natural resources for regional economies”. (O’Reilly et al, Nature, 2003) Third (majority) World behaves Ecosystems highly resilient Climate change mild Social systems (even among poor populations) also resilient Accelerated demographic transition

2080: rain-fed cereal production: 

2080: rain-fed cereal production Fischer et al, 2001 (IIASA) ECHAM4 model (Max Planck Institute Meteorology)

Risk of systems failure: 

Risk of systems failure  

Research Questions: 

Research Questions Characterisation of social resilience Quantifying and predicting social hysteresis Predicting and tracking socio-climatic-ecological-economic scenarios (eg “economic optimism” vs “fortress”)