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Premium member Presentation Transcript Slide1: Dart Marketing, LLC Company Introduction & ServicesSlide2: We Provide Solutions to Your Toughest Challenges… Pricing Strategy - Identify price elastic products and customers Mail Optimization Brand Mapping for better positioning, up-selling and new opportunities Message Targeting Custom Decision Making Tools for "what if" scenarios "Natural Selection" Recommendation System OUR MISSION is to provide insightful and financially responsible marketing strategies, based on solid experience, sound market data, and state of the art statistical techniques and data analysis. OUR APPROACH is data driven and our results are measurable. We will better define and target your most profitable customers, increase your response rates, and improve your marketing results. OUR EXPERIENCE includes work with leading publishers (such as Hachette Filipacchi Media), loyalty programs (such as General Motors lease loyalty), subscription services (such as Gevalia Kaffe), and the largest direct mail new product launch ever (the GM Card). OUR GOAL is to return multiples of your cost in increased sales and efficiency. Slide3: Database Analysis, design, and management Data mining, data quality and data conversion Merge/Purge/De-dupe Analysis Customer Relationships (CRM) Customer profiles and segmentation Lifetime value of a customer Market sizing and definition Marketing Mix Allocation Sales forecasting and tracking Determine price elasticities Price testing and strategy Time series analysis Analyze sales patterns, markets and behavior Perceptual mapping - product & customer matching Recommendation Systems Analysis (Financial) Financial modeling - "what-if" scenario testing ROI and NPV of cash flows Business case development Research Customer behavior, program evaluations, consumer studies Market sizing, product pricing and configuration, customer segment definition Test design, sample size and definition, questionnaires and reporting Targeting / Modeling Maximize objective using regression (i.e. response, incremental sales, marketing mix, product pricing) Segmentation - cluster and factor analysis Significance testing Other Services: Custom Analytic Software ”Point-and-click" marketing and budgeting tools Strategic decision making tools New business presentation models Internet Website development, promotion, and strategic assessment Creative DM creative strategy, copy, design, and consultation Specializing in publishing for the last 20 years Services / CapabilitiesMarketing Analysis: Marketing Analysis Overview: Customer and employee relationships (CRM) - Customer profiles and segmentation, lifetime value of a customer, market sizing and definition, market and customer behavior, time series analysis, response forecasting and tracking, analyze sales patterns, perceptual mapping. Customer Profiles and Segmentation Compare mutually exclusive audience types (buyers versus non buyers, heavy users versus light users, and employees versus non employees) and product types (premium versus value or newsstand versus subscription) by demographics (i.e. age, income) and other information such as purchase and payment history. Results are tested for statistical significance to identify actionable targets. Lifetime Value of a Customer Determined lifetime value for GM Card accounts. The value differed widely by the method they were booked (i.e. direct mail, outbound phones or "take one" applications). The value also differed widely by customer segment. These findings led them to avoid acquiring accounts through outbound telemarketing and to increase retention spending on select people. Price Elasticities, Testing & Strategy Identify which products and people to raise (and lower) prices to scientifically. Follow with price testing, coordinated with prices from other channels, such as online and in retail outlets. Market Sizing and Definition Sized the market for a new drug for Bristol-Myers Squibb based on population demographics, mortality rates, and treated and untreated universe. Markets were defined by the disease for which the drug could be applied. Marketing Analysis: Marketing Analysis Market and Customer Behavior Presented the results of Gold Card analysis to GM Card senior management before its launch, demonstrating its impact on the number of accounts and total profits under different rewards scenarios. Response Forecasting and Tracking Models Ability to forecast and track response to your direct mail. Built accurate response forecasting and tracking models for mail waves ranging from 15 to 30 million pieces. The GM Card relied on these forecasts to execute the next mail wave within a tight window of opportunity, maximizing response. Time Series Analysis Track sales over time, accounting for seasonality. Pre and post marketing event analysis. Example: Showed changes in response to various methods of account acquisition over time by demographics, credit variables and the vehicle ownership of those solicited for a GM credit card. Also used for tracking and forecasting and optimizing newsstand sales and returns. Analyze Sales Patterns Identify seasonality and region brand strength by comparing your sales to your competitors. Example: Measured sale rates for Cadillac brands versus competitors by city to identify regions of brand strength and weakness for direct mail campaign. Perceptual Mapping / Competitive Perceptual Maps 3-D bubble plots illustrate how products correlate with each other on various dimensions, such as by sales correlations, price/offer and demographics. The size of each bubble represents volume, such as the number of subscribers/sales or revenue. See an example on the next page. Taken a step further, we can create an individualized product selection model to determine which product each customer will most likely want next.Personalized Recommendation Systems: Personalized Recommendation Systems According to ValueBeat, Amazon.com attributes 35% of their product sales to recommendations. We create a truly personal shopping experience with My-Store, WishLists, email alerts, smart-search System becomes your virtual aisle clerk, assisting customers at time of decision-making Simple to integrate and automatically tunes its results and runs in real time without any investment in infrastructure, training or maintenance. We provide personalized recommendations that… Are relevant. Match customers tastes. Lead to discovery of new products. And, engage the customer. We then customize it to… Leverage profit margin or price. Remove out of stock merchandise. Promote sale items or overstock. Make layered recommendations, such as best “in category” and “out of category”. Be controlled by the user to guide recommendations, even for New Shoppers. Treat customers differently based on tastes. Compare our movie recommendations to other world-class systems. Try Our Demo Notes: Results taken from Netflix.com, Blockbuster.com, and FamilyVideo.com in November 2006.Slide7: Overview Financial modeling projects range from a single mail campaign to a multi-year cash flow projection of your entire business. It brings together assumptions about the product, customers, budgets, and marketing effectiveness using historical data, market research and experience. We will help you establish a base case and enable you to test marketing investment trade-offs, identify high leverage opportunities, find break-even points, measure performance against plan and test “what-ifs.” The model tracks a prospect from solicitation to sale to customer retention. Modeling allows you to evaluate the big picture, with the ability to understand differences in performance segmented by market and product. The model evolves over time, becoming increasingly accurate and relevant, as it is continuously updated with future program results and further customized. It serves as an excellent custom reporting device (i.e. automated scorecard). Financial ModelingSlide8: Examples GM Card: Provided business analysis for the GM Card program in the U.S., as well as subsequent models for launches in Canada, Mexico, England and Brazil. The models provide a complete picture of the company, incorporating assumptions about the product, economic factors, banking fees, marketing budgets and the effectiveness of each marketing channel. As a result of these models, GM confidently expanded into Canada and England, cautiously entered Brazil and avoided Mexico. Different product configurations were offered in each country based on maximizing the results from each financial model. After the launch, the U.S. model was updated to include actual data and drove decision making for ten years, including the decisions to: Discontinue the partner program Eliminate to the gold card product Shift to a new tiered rewards program Bristol-Myers Squibb: Our custom financial and marketing planning tool sized the market for a new drug based on population demographics, mortality rates, and treated and untreated universe by disease for which the drug can be marketed. It incorporated details about media spending, DTC, professional spending, and a compliance and persistency program. The user could then test various marketing strategies and budgets, and learn the expected sales mix and financial results. Financial ModelingSlide9: Product Perceptual Mapping This plot shows sales correlations, between baseball card sets. There were 16 products classified into 5 product segments. The products were plotted on three dimensions, where the x and y axis represent sales correlations between the products and the z axis represents unit sales volume (sometime revenue is used instead) shown by the size of the bubble. Demand appears to be higher on the left part of the map. The products of each segment tended to form mini-clusters and larger "segment clusters" tended to form as well, giving both a macro and micro view on one page. The scales of these maps are highly interpretive. The horizontal axis is a scale of how “exotic” the product is The vertical axis appears to be a scale of real life “best of.” The more exotic the product the more pricing powerSlide10: Competitive Perceptual Maps Purpose: Illustrate how products correlate with each other on various dimensions. Types of Maps: In this simple example, a broad array of magazines were plotted by their similarity to each other on two dimensions, median age and gender. The size of each bubble represents the number of subscribers. If we focused only on men’s magazines, the gender dimension would be replaced with something more salient, such as price. More sophisticated plots, which require advanced statistical analysis, are even more compelling because they show sales correlations, based on past acquisition mailings or cross-promotions.Custom Software: Custom Software Acquisitions Models Track entire marketing effort including all budgets and expected results for each media, compare results to benchmarks and link to a financial model. Example: Pre launch research and marketing plan for the Chrysler Credit Card. The model demonstrates how any change in the marketing assumptions impacts the bottom line. Analytic Marketing Tools / Scenario Testing We build custom "point-and-click" analytic marketing tools using Excel and Visual Basic. Example: Showed changes in response to various methods of account acquisition over time by demographics, credit variables and the vehicle ownership of those solicited for a GM credit card. This analysis identified highly responsive targets, making the GM Card's marketing team more efficient in acquiring millions of new accounts. Another model tested different product configurations to determine their pricing strategy. User-Friendly Front Ends to Databases and Statistical Forecasts Example: Built easy to use software enabling the GM Card marketing team to access revenue and redemption expense forecasts in graphical and table form, which were tied to a historical database. New Business Presentations Create "point and click" models to demonstrate the proposed marketing plan and its effectiveness on sales and ROI. Example: Bristol-Myers Squibb Ortho birth control pills. Ask to see demos of these types of solutions.Market Research: Market Research Overview: We research new products and services, do program evaluations, understand customer behavior, do consumer studies, and do on-the-fly cover testing. We use everything from phone surveys to mall intercepts to online research. Test Design We will help you identify relevant groups to study or compare. If you are looking at buyer behavior for example, look at non buyer behavior or have a control group or program norms as a reference. We may collect surveys from people different each time periods to remove seasonality or create sales weights. New Product Research New product pre-launch research. Example: Safe-card's child protection program tested different prices and different offer combinations. It also established target segmentation for each service. Program Evaluations Measure program effectiveness and achieve higher sales rates. Example: Found insights into consumer behavior for GM's North American automotive marketing team, enabling them to achieve higher (more than double in some cases) incremental sales rates in subsequent programs. Behavioral Studies Determine best motivational factors for each target group. Example: Measured GM employee attitudes and willingness to participate GM’s Ambassador Program for hourly, salaried and retired employees. On-the-Fly Cover Testing Get quantifiable consumer reactions to magazine covers before choosing which to use. Measure lift of cover choice to sales by calibrating to survey responses. Predict the overall success of the issue before release, based on live consumer feedback.Database Management: Database Management Overview: Customer Relationship Management is at the core of database analysis and purpose. Our methods follow...database design and management, data mining, data quality, data hygiene, merge/purge/de-dupe, and data conversion. Database Management Experience with files containing millions of records. Examples: GM sales files, GM Credit Card customer files, and various other transactions level data. Reorganized Prodigy Internet's customer database under intense time pressure to produce marketing recommendations for new acquisitions, by identifying heavy users of their service and their characteristics. Data Quality/Hygiene Is your data a mess? Try this one on for size. GM had a direct mail program, where people responded by hand writing in the brand they were interested in buying. Many of these were misspelled or invalid and we wrote an algorhythn, which identified the brands with over 98% accuracy. Merge/Purge/De-dupe Do you have lists that need to be combined or reworked? Are you mailing twice to the same address? Do you want to mail only to certain segments of your list? Need help identifying who those people should be? No list is too big for us to manage. Data Conversion Translate files from one file format into another, such as from ASCII fixed column to a SAS dataset.Slide14: Overview: Maximize response, incremental sales and marketing mix, forecasting and tracking,and significance testing. Maximize Objective Using Various Regression Techniques – Such as response rates for acquisitions, renewals, incremental sales, customer targeting, and marketing mix. Example: built models for GM Card identifying prospects most likely to not only respond to an offer, but to pass the credit check and become a booked account. Target Models – identify affinity points programs redeemers, likely program defectors, product switchers & migrators within program, brand preference, the timing of market entry, and heavy users. Example: built a GM Card redeemer model identifying the likelihood each customer would redeem their rewards and how soon for millions of cardholders. Profiling and Segmentation - identify audience types such as defectors, in market buyers, ethnic groups, military/college buyers, employees, owners/loyalty, competitors/conquest, and unique segmentation schemes using multivariate analysis. Example: Segmented GM’s hourly, salaried and retired employees into research defined “attitude and energy” dimensions for inclusion in their Ambassador Program, designed to encourage and empower employees to sell cars. Forecasting and Tracking – forecasting; including seasonality and other patterns using previous months or years of data and assumptions about future trends. Results are tracked and compared to forecasts. Example: account and revenue forecasts for the GM Card. Significance Testing - Distinguish between results that are directionally and statistically significant. Statistical ModelingSlide15: Craig Tomarkin founded DART Marketing with the vision of providing intelligent, financially responsible marketing strategies through custom analysis. His team is well suited for any analytic challenge. About Craig Tomarkin Background After completing business school in 1990, Craig joined InterData (a privately held spin-off of DMB&B's direct marketing group), where he immediately became a key member of the GM Card launch team. His sophisticated financial models were used to establish the expected business case and allowed them to play what-if scenarios on pricing, product configuration, and rewards payments. In the first year of business, the program booked five million accounts, the most successful launch of its kind. After the launch, he updated the U.S. model to include actual data and drove decision making for ten years, including the decisions to: - Discontinue the partner program - Eliminate the gold card product - Shift to a new tiered rewards product Other Highlights Include: Improving Hachette Filipacchi's magazine renewals using regression models combined with an innovative mail strategy. Titles modeled include: Woman's Day, Home, Road & Track and others. Unique product perceptual mapping of Gevalia's coffees. Brands clustered into Flavored, Roasts, and Exotic. When price was later added as a factor, the more expensive coffees moved up the exoticness scale. This had implictions for pricing strategy, new product positioning, and targeted up-selling. Also to his credit, Craig invented the “Natural Selection” Product Recommendation System and founded Baseballguru.com, a popular baseball web site that continues to grow in popularity and profits.Clients Served: Clients ServedSlide17: Craig Tomarkin DART Marketing, LLC 2333 Congress St. Fairfield, CT 06824 CTomarkin@dartm.net 203-259-0676 Fax 419-858-8545 Getting Started… Apply the science of precision marketing. Learn more about your customers and improve your bottom line. Contact us today! You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.