Presentation Transcript
SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE RECESSION DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE PRESENTATION: SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE RECESSION DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE PRESENTATION Pierre, SD
5/2/02
WHAT RECESSION?: WHAT RECESSION? Have we had a recession?
What is a recession?
NBER definition:
“A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade.”
SO WHAT DOES THE NBER LOOK AT?: SO WHAT DOES THE NBER LOOK AT? PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
REAL PERSONAL INCOME LESS TRANSFERS
REAL SALES –MFG & W/R
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
All monthly
“The committee gives relatively little weight to real GDP because it is only measured quarterly and it is subject to continuing, large revisions.”
Let’s look at the single best indicator
Best Single Indicator SD Labor Bulletin http://www.state.sd.us/dol/lmic/industries.htm: Best Single Indicator SD Labor Bulletin http://www.state.sd.us/dol/lmic/industries.htm
More Recent Trends: More Recent Trends
Job Losses : Job Losses NonAg Employment
Peak 2001:03 379.9 thous
Trough 2002:03 375.3 thous
Loss 4.6 thous -1.2%
Mfg Employment
Peak 1999:05 50.6 thous
Trough 2002:02 43.1 thous
Loss 7.5 thous -14.8%
All Feel the Pain: All Feel the Pain
Most Hard Hit: Most Hard Hit
4th Quarter Drop-US: 4th Quarter Drop-US
Farm Income Down Since 2001: Farm Income Down Since 2001
U.S. Economy Grew Strongly in First Quarter (5.8%) : U.S. Economy Grew Strongly in First Quarter (5.8%)
Old Economy Impacted: Old Economy Impacted
Housing Remains Strong: Housing Remains Strong
Which Industry is Largest?: Which Industry is Largest? INDUSTRY PI EMP GSP
Farm 9.1% 7.2% 6.1%
Ag. Ser 0.8% 1.4% 0.8%
Mining 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
Const 6.2% 5.5% 4.1%
Mfg 13.3% 10.0% 14.0%
Tran & PU 6.4% 4.4% 8.2%
Wh Tr 5.6% 4.2% 7.0%
Ret Tr 9.6% 17.2% 10.7%
FIR 7.5% 8.2% 18.1%
Serv 24.3% 28.0% 17.6%
Govt 16.7% 13.6% 12.6%
DRI-WEFA FORECASTS: DRI-WEFA FORECASTS
RISKS: RISKS OIL PRICE SHOCKS
MIDEAST VIOLENCE
TRADE DEFICIT