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SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE RECESSION DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE PRESENTATION: 

SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE RECESSION DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE PRESENTATION Pierre, SD 5/2/02

WHAT RECESSION?: 

WHAT RECESSION? Have we had a recession? What is a recession? NBER definition: “A recession is a significant decline in activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, visible in industrial production, employment, real income, and wholesale-retail trade.”

SO WHAT DOES THE NBER LOOK AT?: 

SO WHAT DOES THE NBER LOOK AT? PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT REAL PERSONAL INCOME LESS TRANSFERS REAL SALES –MFG & W/R INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION All monthly “The committee gives relatively little weight to real GDP because it is only measured quarterly and it is subject to continuing, large revisions.” Let’s look at the single best indicator

Best Single Indicator SD Labor Bulletin http://www.state.sd.us/dol/lmic/industries.htm: 

Best Single Indicator SD Labor Bulletin http://www.state.sd.us/dol/lmic/industries.htm

More Recent Trends: 

More Recent Trends

Job Losses : 

Job Losses NonAg Employment Peak 2001:03 379.9 thous Trough 2002:03 375.3 thous Loss 4.6 thous -1.2% Mfg Employment Peak 1999:05 50.6 thous Trough 2002:02 43.1 thous Loss 7.5 thous -14.8%

All Feel the Pain: 

All Feel the Pain

Most Hard Hit: 

Most Hard Hit

4th Quarter Drop-US: 

4th Quarter Drop-US

Farm Income Down Since 2001: 

Farm Income Down Since 2001

U.S. Economy Grew Strongly in First Quarter (5.8%) : 

U.S. Economy Grew Strongly in First Quarter (5.8%)

Old Economy Impacted: 

Old Economy Impacted

Housing Remains Strong: 

Housing Remains Strong

Which Industry is Largest?: 

Which Industry is Largest? INDUSTRY PI EMP GSP Farm 9.1% 7.2% 6.1% Ag. Ser 0.8% 1.4% 0.8% Mining 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% Const 6.2% 5.5% 4.1% Mfg 13.3% 10.0% 14.0% Tran & PU 6.4% 4.4% 8.2% Wh Tr 5.6% 4.2% 7.0% Ret Tr 9.6% 17.2% 10.7% FIR 7.5% 8.2% 18.1% Serv 24.3% 28.0% 17.6% Govt 16.7% 13.6% 12.6%

DRI-WEFA FORECASTS: 

DRI-WEFA FORECASTS

RISKS: 

RISKS OIL PRICE SHOCKS MIDEAST VIOLENCE TRADE DEFICIT

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