CEC 999 2006 018

Efficient Use of Energy, a Physicist’s Perspective September 25, 2006: 

Efficient Use of Energy, a Physicist’s Perspective September 25, 2006 Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner California Energy Commission (916) 654-4930 ARosenfe@Energy.State.CA.US http://www.energy.ca.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfeld.html

Slide2: 

1949

How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency?: 

How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency? Easiest to tease out is cars In the early 1970s, only 14 miles per gallons Now about 21 miles per gallon If still at 14 mpg, we’d consume 75 billion gallons more and pay $225 Billion more at 2006 prices But we still pay $450 Billion per year If California wins the “Schwarzenegger-Pavley” suit, and it is implemented nationwide, we’ll save another $150 Billion per year Commercial Aviation improvements save another $50 Billion per year Appliances and Buildings are more complex We must sort out true efficiency gains vs. structural changes (from smokestack to service economy).

How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)?: 

How Much of The Savings Come from Efficiency (cont’d)? Some examples of estimated savings in 2006 based on 1974 efficiencies minus 2006 efficiencies Beginning in 2007 in California, reduction of “vampire” or stand-by losses This will save $10 Billion when finally implemented, nation-wide Out of a total $700 Billion, a crude summary is that 1/3 is structural, 1/3 is transportation, and 1/3 is buildings and industry.

A supporting analysis on the topic of efficiencyfrom Vice-President Dick Cheney: 

A supporting analysis on the topic of efficiency from Vice-President Dick Cheney “Had energy use kept pace with economic growth, the nation would have consumed 171 quadrillion British thermal units (Btus) last year instead of 99 quadrillion Btus” “About a third to a half of these savings resulted from shifts in the economy. The other half to two-thirds resulted from greater energy efficiency” Source: National Energy Policy: Report of the National Energy Policy Development Group, Dick Cheney, et. al., page 1-4, May 2001 Cheney could have noted that 72 quads/year saved in the US alone, would fuel one Billion cars, compared to a world car count of only 600 Million

Slide9: 

∆= 4,000kWh/yr = $400/capita

Slide12: 

Comparison of Fuel Economy – Passenger Vehicles

Slide16: 

Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org 75% 60% 25% 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Year Index (1972 = 100) Effective Dates of National Standards = Effective Dates of State Standards = Refrigerators Central A/C Gas Furnaces SEER = 13

Slide17: 

Source: David Goldstein

Slide18: 

Source: David Goldstein

Slide22: 

United States Refrigerator Use, repeated, to compare with Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year) Refrigerator Use per Unit 1978 Cal Standard 1990 Federal Standard 1987 Cal Standard 1980 Cal Standard 1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal Standard Estimated Standby Power (per house)

Slide23: 

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 TWh 2000 Stds 2000 Stds 2005 Stds 2005 Stds If Energy Star If Energy Star TWH/Year 1.5 4.5 6.0 3.0 7.5 Value (billion $/year) Comparison of 3 Gorges to Refrigerator and AC Efficiency Improvements Savings calculated 10 years after standard takes effect. Calculations provided by David Fridley, LBNL Value of TWh 3 Gorges 三峡 Refrigerators 冰箱 Air Conditioners 空调 Wholesale (3 Gorges) at 3.6 c/kWh Retail (AC + Ref) at 7.2 c/kWh 三峡电量与电冰箱、空调能效对比 标准生效后，10年节约电量

Slide24: 

Annual Peak Savings from Efficiency Programs and Standards 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 MW Appliance Standards Building Standards Utility Efficiency Programs at a cost of ~1% of electric bill ~ 22% of Annual Peak in California in 2003 i.e. 22% in 30 years

Slide25: 

Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968 Growth = 1.5%/yr

Illuminating Space vs. the Street: 

Illuminating Space vs. the Street

Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight: 

Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight

Heat Mirror Windows – Steve Selkowitz, LBNL: 

Heat Mirror Windows – Steve Selkowitz, LBNL Low Emissivity films are required by building standards world-wide. They reflect far infrared radiation. Retain indoor heat in winter, reflect outdoor heat in summer. They double the R-value of double glazing, and the inside pane is warm to the touch – more comfortable Before low-E, windows were 30% of the heat load of a home – now 15%. During a Montana winter, a north-facing low-E window, facing a snowy sunlit slope, is a net energy gainer. “Selective film are required for Commercial Buildings in California. They reflect far- and near-infrared radiation, and halve the solar gain though windows; including car windshields in BMW’s etc. Modern windows save ~1 Mbod of oil equivalent, = Alaskan oil.

Temperature Rise of Various Materials in SunlightDr. Hashem Akbari, LBL Heat Island Group: 

Temperature Rise of Various Materials in Sunlight Dr. Hashem Akbari, LBL Heat Island Group 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 50 40 30 20 10 0 Temperature Rise (°C) Galvanized Steel IR-Refl. Black Black Paint Green Asphalt Shingle Red Clay Tile Lt. Red Paint Lt. Green Paint White Asphalt Shingle Al Roof Coat. Optical White White Paint White Cement Coat. Solar Absorptance

Temperature Trends in Downtown Los Angeles : 

Temperature Trends in Downtown Los Angeles

Potential Savings in LA: 

Potential Savings in LA Savings for Los Angeles Direct, $200M/year Indirect, $140M/year Smog, $360M/year Estimate of national savings: $10B/year

Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight: 

Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight

From Cool Color Roofs to Cool Color Cars: 

From Cool Color Roofs to Cool Color Cars Toyota experiment (surface temperature 10K cooler) Ford is also working on the technology

Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight: 

Cool Colors Reflect Invisible Near-Infrared Sunlight

UV Water Purification: 

UV Water Purification

Slide37: 

Ashok Gadgil at LBNL points out if UV treatment replaces boiling 10 tons of water per day, each system avoids 4 tons of CO2 per day. An American car emits only 4 tons of CO2 per YEAR. Meet / exceed WHO and US EPA criteria Energy efficient: 60 watts disinfects 1 ton / hour Low cost: 4 cents disinfects a ton of water Reliable, Mature components Can treat un-pressurized water Rapid throughput: 12 seconds Low maintenance: once every three months >100 units now operating in India and Phillipines http://www.waterhealth.com/ Ultra Violet Water Purification for Villages in Developing World

Slide38: 

In Nov.-Dec. 2005, he visited Darfur camps, and showed that with a $10 metal stove, and training to use it, only half the fuelwood is needed. The stove saves fuelwood worth $160 annually for a refugee family Since that time, Ashok Gadgil has improved stove efficiency by another factor of two http://www.osti.gov/bridge/servlets/purl/878538-hMpqN3/878538.PDF Dr. Ashok Gadgil’s Darfur Cookstove Project

LEDs Powered with Photovoltaics: 

LEDs Powered with Photovoltaics Evan Mills at LBNL points out the following: If 1 billion people could replace kerosene lamps with LEDs, emissions would drop by the equivalent of 1.3 million barrels of petroleum per day http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills/PUBS/Fuel_Based_Lighting.html

Slide41: 

Source: Stabilization Wedges: Pacala and Socolow, Science Vol 305, page 968 Growth = 1.5%/yr

.: 

. This talk available on my web page Just Google “Art Rosenfeld”