Energy Summit: Energy MythsManitowoc, Wisconsin: Energy Summit: Energy Myths Manitowoc, Wisconsin Congressman Roscoe Bartlett www.bartlett.house.gov/EnergyUpdates August 15, 2007


Slide3: Think gasoline is expensive ? Consider … Petroleum is pre-processed by natural systems – unaccounted for with money


Energy and Population: Energy and Population In the 8,000 years from the beginning of history to the year 2000 A.D. world population will have grown from 10 million to 4 billion, with 90% of that growth taking place during the last 5% of that period, in 400 years. It took the first 3,000 years of recorded history to accomplish the first doubling of population, 100 years for the last doubling, but the next doubling will require only 50 years. "Energy Resources and our Future," Admiral Hyman Rickover, 1957


Slide6: [Renewable Resources Began The Industrial Age : Wind, Water Power, Wood & Agriculture]


The United States and Oil: The United States and Oil 2 % of World Reserves 8% of World Oil Production 5% of World’s Population U.S. Consumes 25% of World’s Oil Production More than 66% Imported


The World According to Oil: The World According to Oil


Slide9: Worldwide Proven Oil Reserves, by Investment Risk GAO-07-283 Peak Oil Production


Slide10: Worldwide Proven Oil Reserves, by Political Risk GAO-07-283 Peak Oil Production


Slide11: Top 10 Companies on the Basis of Oil Production and Reserves Holdings, 2004 GAO-07-283 Peak Oil Production


Slide12: World Oil Reserves, OPEC and non-OPEC, 2006 GAO-07-283 Peak Oil Production


Energy and Civilization: Energy and Civilization Whether this Golden Age will continue depends entirely upon our ability to keep energy supplies in balance with the needs of our growing population. …Possession of surplus energy is, of course, a requisite for any kind of civilization, for if man possesses merely the energy of his own muscles, he must expend all his strength - mental and physical - to obtain the bare necessities of life. …A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life. Examples: Mayan, India, China, Middle East “Energy Resources and Our Future,” Admiral Hyman Rickover May 14, 1957


Energy and Our High Standard of Living: Energy and Our High Standard of Living With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living. Thus the enormous fossil energy which we in this country control feeds machines which make each of us master of an army of mechanical slaves. Man's muscle power is rated at 35 watts continuously, or one-twentieth horsepower. Machines therefore furnish every American industrial worker with energy equivalent to that of 244 men. 2,000 men push his automobile along the road. His family is supplied with 33 faithful household helpers. Each locomotive engineer controls energy equivalent to that of 100,000 men; Each jet pilot controls energy equivalent to that of 700,000 men. “Energy Resources and Our Future,” Admiral Hyman Rickover, May 14, 1957


Slide15: Energy is the key to unlock all other physical resources Current US energy use is equivalent to having 300 people working around the clock for each citizen US = 1100 lbs of iron & steel per capita 3rd world = 50 lbs of iron & steel per capita


Oil is Not Forever: Oil is Not Forever there is nothing man can do to rebuild exhausted fossil fuel reserves. They were created by solar energy 500 million years ago and took eons to grow to their present volume. In the face of the basic fact that fossil fuel reserves are finite, the exact length of time these reserves will last is important in only one respect: the longer they last, the more time do we have, to invent ways of living off renewable or substitute energy sources and to adjust our economy to the vast changes which we can expect from such a shift. “Energy Resources and Our Future,” Admiral Hyman Rickover, May 14, 1957


Slide17: www.agiweb.org/agi/labman/pages/lab15.html Millions of Years of “Buried Sunshine” CRUDE OIL


Slide18: How We Get Oil ~ 25% of oil flows due to reservoir pressure ~ 10-15% with water down the hole and pumping ~ 60% too thick “heavy oil” and/or bound to soil - left in place as unrecoverable Steam, soaps, microbes, mineral spirits, vibration, C02 … Maybe 5% more but yield is very low vs flowing oil “The energy needed for extraction will eventually reach the energy yielded by the fossil fuels and become a net loss” Pimentel D., “Renewable Energy: Economic and Environmental Issues”, BioScience, 44:8 (Sep 94)


Energy is a Moral Responsibility: Energy is a Moral Responsibility I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendents - those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age. Fossil fuels resemble capital in the bank. A prudent and responsible parent will use his capital sparingly in order to pass on to his children as much as possible of his inheritance. A selfish and irresponsible parent will squander it in riotous living and care not one whit how his offspring will fare. “Energy Resources and Our Future,” Admiral Hyman Rickover, May 14, 1957


Energy and Political Power: Energy and Political Power High-energy consumption has always been a prerequisite of political power. Ultimately, the nation which controls the largest energy resources will become dominant. if we act wisely and in time to conserve what we have and prepare well for necessary future changes, we shall insure this dominant position for our own country. “Energy Resources and Our Future,” Admiral Hyman Rickover, May 14, 1957


Energy is Warping Diplomacy: Energy is Warping Diplomacy "... We do have to do something about the energy problem. I can tell you that nothing has really taken me aback more as secretary of State than the way that the politics of energy is -- I will use the word warping diplomacy around the world. United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 5, 2006


An all-out Search for Energy: An all-out Search for Energy [Energy] has given extraordinary power to some states that are using that power in not very good ways for the international system, states that would otherwise have very little power. It is sending some states that are growing very rapidly in an all-out search for energy -- states like China, states like India. United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 5, 2006


We Depend Upon Fossil Fuels for Our Energy: We Depend Upon Fossil Fuels for Our Energy It is, of course, an energy supply that is still heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, which makes more difficult our desire to have growth, environmental protection and reliable energy supply all in a package. United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on April 5, 2006


Slide25: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html 2004 US Energy Consumption


Slide27: http://healthandenergy.com/images/Oil_and_Gas_2004_Scenario.jpg You are here


Five Federal Government Peak Oil Reports: Five Federal Government Peak Oil Reports Hirsch Report #1: “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts Mitigation, and Risk Management,” Department of Energy, February 2005 “Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations,” U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, September 2005


Five Federal Government Peak Oil Reports - Continued: Five Federal Government Peak Oil Reports - Continued Hirsch Report #2, “Economic Impacts of U.S. Liquid Fuel Mitigation Options,” (DOE-NETL-2006/1237), Department of Energy, July 8, 2006 “CRUDE OIL - Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production” (GAO-07-283), Government Accounting Office, March 29, 2007 “Facing the Hard Truths About Energy,” National Petroleum Council, draft – July, 18, 2007


The USGS Estimate is “Utterly Implausible”: The USGS Estimate is “Utterly Implausible” “Jean Laherrere made an assessment of the USGS report and concludes that: The USGS estimate implies a five-fold increase in discovery rate and reserve addition, for which no evidence is presented. Such an improvement in performance is in fact utterly implausible, given the great technological achievements of the industry over the past twenty years, the worldwide search, and the deliberate effort to find the largest remaining prospects.” “Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations,” U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, September 2005


EIA Projections of Discovery: EIA Projections of Discovery


Slide34: Two EIA oil production scenarios of the probability of USGS Estimates of ultimate world-recoverable oil based on a mean (expected value) of 3,003 billion barrels and a 2 percent annual world oil demand escalation. Hirsch Report #1: “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts Mitigation, and Risk Management,” Department of Energy, February 2005


Slide35: You are here http://www.energyfiles.com/oilsupplygap.html


“Oil is the most important form of energy in the world today.”: “Oil is the most important form of energy in the world today.” “Historically, no other energy source equals oil’s intrinsic qualities of extractability, transportability, versatility, and cost. The qualities that enabled oil to take over from coal as the front-line energy source for the industrialized world in the middle of the 20th century are as relevant today as they were then.” “Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations,” U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, September 2005


Slide39: http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/whats_in_barrel_oil.html


Global Peak Oil will happen: Global Peak Oil will happen World production of conventional oil will reach a maximum and decline thereafter. That maximum is called the peak. Oil Peaking Presents a Unique Challenge. The world has never faced a problem like this. Hirsch Report #1: “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts Mitigation, and Risk Management,” Department of Energy, February 2005


Global peak presents “an unprecedented risk management problem.” : Global peak presents “an unprecedented risk management problem.” As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking. Hirsch Report #1: “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts Mitigation, and Risk Management,” Department of Energy, February 2005


Slide42: Estimates of ultimately recoverable crude oil (Worldwide) http://www.wri.org/wri/climate/finitoil/


Key Estimates of the Timing of Peak Oil from the GAO Report : Key Estimates of the Timing of Peak Oil from the GAO Report


“The era of cheap energy is gone.” : “The era of cheap energy is gone.” the United States, as the largest consumer of oil and one of the nations most heavily dependent on oil for transportation, may be especially vulnerable among the industrialized nations of the world. Being at the mercy of world events will be an unsettling time for our consumers. “CRUDE OIL - Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production” (GAO-07-283), Government Accounting Office, March 29, 2007


Slide45: It Takes Decades to Switch (without a Crisis)


BREAK: BREAK


The Essence of the Problem:There is NO Ready Substitute!: The Essence of the Problem: There is NO Ready Substitute! The Gap begins Here


Potential Alternatives to Oil: Potential Alternatives to Oil Finite Sources Unconventional Oil ●Tar Sands ●Shale Oil Coal Nuclear Fission (light water reactors)


Potential Alternatives to Oil Continued: Potential Alternatives to Oil Continued Additional Nuclear options ●Breeder reactors ●Fusion ● Waste to Energy ● Is Hydrogen an Energy Source?


Potential Alternatives to Oil Continued: Potential Alternatives to Oil Continued ● Renewable Resources ● Solar ● Wind ● Geothermal ● Ocean Energy ● Agricultural Resources ● Ethanol ● Soy/Biodiesel ● Methanol ● Biomass


Slide51: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.renewables/page/trends/highlight1.html 2004 US Energy Consumption


Filling the “Gap”: Filling the “Gap” We must not fill the “gap” presented in the yellow. We must curb its rise through efficiency and conservation!


Ethanol’s role in gasoline and corn markets:An asymmetric relationship Neilson C. ConklinU.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research ServiceMarch 2007: Ethanol’s role in gasoline and corn markets: An asymmetric relationship Neilson C. Conklin U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service March 2007 2006 2005/06 Stock-to-use ratio, 17.5%


The “Perfect Storm” Ethanol and Corn Prices: Source: Average retail gasoline prices net of taxes from EIA, ethanol price from Nebraska energy web site: www.neo.ne.gov The “Perfect Storm” Ethanol and Corn Prices


Potential of Energy Efficiency: Example of Lighting: Potential of Energy Efficiency: Example of Lighting


Building a Common Cause Coalitionto Transition From Fossil Fuelsto Renewable Sources of Energy: Building a Common Cause Coalition to Transition From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Sources of Energy ● Reduce National Security Vulnerability from Dependence on Imported Oil ● Prepare for Global Peak Oil ● Mitigate Climate Change ● Increase U.S. Manufacturing & Exports ● Improve the Environment


China’s “Post-Oil” Strategy: China’s “Post-Oil” Strategy Conservation Domestic Sources of Energy Diversify Sources of Energy Environmental Impact International Cooperation


Effects of Delaying Peak Oil Mitigation Efforts: Effects of Delaying Peak Oil Mitigation Efforts


Federal Energy Policy Update: Federal Energy Policy Update H.R. 2272, the 21st Century Competitiveness Act of 2007, was signed into law by President Bush on August 9. P.L. 110-69 includes the creation of ARPA-E. 270 bills on energy efficiency and renewable energy have been introduced according to the Congressional Research Service (CRS). H.R. 3221, the House-approved omnibus energy bill includes a problematic Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), a net tax increase and excludes increases in CAFÉ standards. H.R. 6 (as amended), the Senate-approved omnibus energy bill increases CAFÉ standards, but excludes and RPS and tax provisions. President Bush threatens vetoes against both bills.


Congressional Peak Oil Caucus : Congressional Peak Oil Caucus ● Roscoe Bartlett, cofounder and cochairman ● Tom Udall, cofounder and cochairman James McGovern Vern Ehlers Mark Udall Raul Grijalva Wayne Gilchrest Jim Moran Dennis Moore Zach Wamp Bob Inglis Randy Kuhl James Oberstar Peter Welch Earl Blumenauer


Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV): Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) Hybrids cut liquid fuel use 50% already. Plug-ins cut 50% of that. “Researchers have shown .. (PHEV) offering.. electric range of 32 km will yield… 50% reduction..” (IEEE Spectrum, July/05). Shown in working Prius. Battery breakthroughs in China: from 10/07, 10kwh batteries (larger than) cost $2,000. www.thunder-sky.com. Thus an extra $2,000 per car can cut gas dependence in half. Gives economic security in case of sudden gasoline cutoff. http://www.werbos.com/US_Action_Needs_Oil_and_CO2_May2007.pdf


Federal Energy Policy Addendum: Federal Energy Policy Addendum UPI reported that on August, 8, 2007 House Energy and Commerce Committee chairman John Dingell announced he plans to introduce a proposal to end the mortgage tax deduction given to “McMansions” larger than 3,000 square feet and to increase the gasoline tax by 50-cents-a-gallon. "These are all new ideas. I know I'm going to catch hell for them," Dingell told those attending a town hall meeting. But the Democratic representative warned that self-sacrifice from all U.S. citizens is key to fighting global warming.


International Cooperation: International Cooperation We are all in the same boat!


For More Informationhttp://www.bartlett.house.gov/EnergyUpdates: For More Information http://www.bartlett.house.gov/EnergyUpdates