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Slide1: 

Livestock’s Long Shadow Environmental Issues and Options Henning Steinfeld Pierre Gerber Tom Wassenaar Vincent Castel Mauricio Rosales Cees de Haan Sustainability Issues in Livestock Production Based on

Drivers of the Livestock Sector: 

Drivers of the Livestock Sector Demand Drivers Population growth: + 50 % by 2050 globally; slowing down in East Asia, still strong elsewhere in developing countries Income growth: strong in E and S Asia, NENA and SS Africa picking up Urbanization: more than 80 % of population growth occurs in cities of developing countries Supply Drivers Cheap grain: decreasing prices over the past four decades, rising over the past years Technological change: genetics, feeding, transport Cheap energy: substantial externalities, rising over the past years Policy environment: incentive frameworks, market and credit regulation, sanitary standards, labour and environmental policies

Broad trends: soaring output and underlying structural changes : 

Broad trends: soaring output and underlying structural changes Million metric tons Growing intensities Increasing scales Vertical integration/longer food chains Geographic shifts / geographic concentration

Meat Production: The Relentless Advance of Monogastrics: 

Meat Production: The Relentless Advance of Monogastrics

Estimated distribution of livestock production systems: 

Estimated distribution of livestock production systems livestock’s long shadow

Quantification of environmental impacts: approach: 

Quantification of environmental impacts: approach Global issues: land use climate change water resources biodiversity Analysis of impacts using a food chain approach (from feed production to product) Identification of technical and policy mitigation options livestock’s long shadow

Extent of pasture land: 

Extent of pasture land 3.4 billion hectares (about 26% of emerged lands) Wide range of production intensity low intensity in developing countries but growing in Latin America intensification in OECD countries – forest transition Marginal land frontier exhausted 20% of rangelands are degraded (higher in the dry lands) livestock’s long shadow

Extent of feedcrops: 

Extent of feedcrops 470 million hectares (about 33% of arable land) Cereals: Production growth mainly based on intensification Regional distribution of crops Soybean: Production growth based on expansion Eight countries provide 97% of global production Soybean cake drives the market Decreasing relative importance of crop residues livestock’s long shadow

Estimated maize, wheat and barley production for animal feed: 

Estimated maize, wheat and barley production for animal feed livestock’s long shadow

Regional trends in the use of feed grains: 

Regional trends in the use of feed grains livestock’s long shadow

Estimated feed surplus/deficit – soymeal (pig and poultry): 

Estimated feed surplus/deficit – soymeal (pig and poultry) livestock’s long shadow

Trends in land-use area for livestock production and total production of meat and milk: 

Trends in land-use area for livestock production and total production of meat and milk

Trends in land-use area for livestock production and production of meat and milk – EU-15: 

Trends in land-use area for livestock production and production of meat and milk – EU-15 livestock’s long shadow

Trends in land-use area for livestock production and production of meat and milk in South America and East and Southeast Asia: 

Trends in land-use area for livestock production and production of meat and milk in South America and East and Southeast Asia livestock’s long shadow

Geographical concentration of pig and poultry production: 

Geographical concentration of pig and poultry production livestock’s long shadow

Review of impacts: 

Review of impacts Climate change 18% of anthropogenic GHG emissions are related to livestock (equivalent CO2) Deforestation: 35% of sector’s emissions Manure: 31% of sector’s emissions Enteric fermentation : 25% of sector’s emissions Feed production: 7% of sector’s emissions Ammonia emissions livestock’s long shadow

Livestock related land use change:Deforestation in the Neotropics: 

livestock’s long shadow Livestock related land use change: Deforestation in the Neotropics ~2.4 million ha/year Forest  Pasture ~0.5 million ha/year Forest  Feed crops ~2.4 billion tons CO2

Slide18: 

Intensify land use to limit land conversion Conserve/restore C and N in cultivated soils Mitigate C loss from pasture soils Reduce enteric fermentation Improved manure management livestock’s long shadow Technical options: Climate change

Review of impacts: 

Review of impacts Water resources Livestock sector represents 8% of all entropic water use, 90% of which for feed production. Feed production: 15% of evapotranspiration in agriculture (irrigated) Overall pollution: hardly quantifiable but substantial at feed production, animal production and processing levels (nutrients, organic matter, antibiotics, pesticides) impact on water cycles livestock’s long shadow

Slide20: 

Improved water use efficiency Irrigation efficiency Water productivity Enhance waste management Production stage: balance feed, phase feeding, supplements Improved manure collection process Manure storage and processing Improved utilization of waste Land management Adapted grazing systems, range improvements, critical periods Improving livestock distribution Technical options: Livestock and water livestock’s long shadow

Review of impacts: 

Review of impacts Biodiversity Main mechanism habitats degradation/destruction: deforestation pollution desertification intensive agriculture Fishmeal production causing overfishing  IUCN identifies livestock as one of the threats to 1699 endangered species (red list) livestock’s long shadow

Technical options: Livestock and Biodiversity: 

livestock’s long shadow Technical options: Livestock and Biodiversity Biodiversity loss often results from environmental degradation  Many options previously presented apply Intensify land use to reduction of pressure on natural land and habitat Improve land and pest management practices Integrated agriculture: response to excessive chemical use Conservation agriculture: restore habitats Combine field level improvements with ecological infrastructure conservation/restoration at landscape level

Hotspots of environmental impact: 

Hotspots of environmental impact

Underlying causes (i): 

Underlying causes (i) Neglect of externalities negative externalities, e.g. water and soil pollution, climate change, biodiversity losses, etc. positive externalities, e.g. carbon sequestration, ecosystem diversitybiodiversity gains Inadequate pricing At input level, e.g. land water At output level, e.g. subsidies livestock’s long shadow

Underlying causes (ii): 

Underlying causes (ii) Livestock production concentrates The clustering of livestock close to feed outlets, consumption centres leads to nutrient overloads Disruption of nutrient cycling Mismanaged grazing lack of stewardship in marginal and remote areas The multiple objectives pursued with livestock livestock’s long shadow

Four main policy principles: 

Four main policy principles Get prices right: Inefficiencies in resource use, often increasing use and leads to misallocation of resources among competing uses (within and outside agriculture) Apply “Polluter pays, provider gets” principles Seek livestock/ecosystem balances: Bring livestock in balance with surrounding land Develop institutions and accountability for environmental stewardship Recognize and balance multiple objectives livestock’s long shadow

Policy context: 

Policy context The social and health dimensions of livestock 40% of agricultural GDP Estimated 1.3 billion people in rural households depend on livestock, entirely or partially A pathway out of poverty for some, an expression of poverty for most Cultural dimension of livestock Provide protein and micro-nutrients to many of the 830 million food insecure people Contribute to health problems of the affluent (obesity, cancers, cardio-vascular diseases) livestock’s long shadow

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Production is projected to double by 2050 Environmental impacts will follow a similar trend under “business as usual” scenario Technology options are generally available to mitigate environmental impacts The sector’s feed base plays a determinant role in both issues and options Development and implementation of policy mixes are required, especially in hotspots of environmental impact livestock’s long shadow

Livestock’s Long Shadow: 

Livestock’s Long Shadow Henning Steinfeld Pierre Gerber Tom Wassenaar Vincent Castel Mauricio Rosales Cees de Haan Download from: www.virtualcentre.org Order a hard copy from FAO’s Animal Production and Health Division website