ANFG

C/AFTAdvanced NavigationFocus Group: 

C/AFT Advanced Navigation Focus Group Melbourne, Australia March 7, 2000

Overview: 

Overview Advanced Navigation Focus Group Goals Definition/Terminology Cost/Benefit Model Assumptions Model Results Next Steps, <RNP, VNAV Specific Model Using San Francisco

Advanced Navigation Focus Group Goals: 

Advanced Navigation Focus Group Goals To demonstrate the value of existing navigation technology airplanes have navigation capabilities that aren’t being used new procedures are required no additional technology enablers required C/AFT Current Analysis: To evaluate the value of operational enhancements associated with existing navigation capabilities. To present results of economic value of existing capability. RNAV RNAV --> RNP 0.3 (DME+DME) RNAV --> RNP 0.3 < GPS + Vertical Navigation

Area Navigation (RNAV): 

Area Navigation (RNAV) RNAV is a method of navigation that permits aircraft operations on any desired course within the coverage of station referenced navigation signals or within the limits of a self-contained system capability or combination of these.

Slide5: 

Air Transport System Capability to Enable Capacity Availability of Navigation Capabilities RNAV GPS/ RNP VOR,DME, ADF, VG/DG

Terminology: 

Terminology Capability Specific navigation enabler, e.g. RNAV,PNAV Operational Enhancement An operational change leading to benefit. Benefit Increased capacity, efficiency, or other cost savings (e.g. training)

RNAV Cost/Benefit Model Assumptions: 

RNAV Cost/Benefit Model Assumptions This is not an alternatives analysis. We are looking at incremental navigation capability levels only. Analysis is from airline point of view (airline as an industry, not single airline) Model will be built to accommodate any region -- first run was for USA for RNAV capability. Analysis will be from 2000 - 2015 for equipage / procedures, and 2000 - 2020 for other costs and benefits Total # of planes and traffic / delay growth will be same as in C/AFT U.S. data link analysis

RNAV Benefit Model Definitions: 

RNAV Benefit Model Definitions Capacity Cancellation / Diversion Avoidance used to quantify improved access to airports/runways Delay Reduction quantified using Direct Operating Cost (DOC) for each minute of delay saved, with higher costs assigned to higher values of predictable delay savings. Revenue enhancement not modeled, although an airline could convert delay savings to increased number of flights, or avoidance of missed connections (this is airline/location dependent). Efficiency If unpredictable, Reduced Fuel Burned If predictable, Reduced Block Fuel this could be taken as increased payload If predictable, Reduced Block Time improved utilization

RNAV Intangible Benefits: 

RNAV Intangible Benefits Environmental Safety Repeatability

RNAV Infrastructure Model Assumptions: 

RNAV Infrastructure Model Assumptions Procedures are the only infrastructure required. Procedure development will occur in three stages: Stage 1. Specials developed by airlines and Air Traffic Service Provider. Stage 2. Air Traffic Service Provider developing public procedures in low-density areas. Stage 3. Air Traffic Service Provider developing public procedures in high-density areas.

RNAV Equipage Rate Model Assumptions: 

RNAV Equipage Rate Model Assumptions All forward-fit airplanes will be RNAV capable Many in-service airplanes already RNAV capable Of those not yet capable, some will retrofit RNAV capability Some will not retrofit, and will be slowly retired out of the model

Model InputsConstants: 

Model Inputs Constants Start Year of Model 2000 Final Year for Equipage = 2015 Final Year for Benefit = 2020 Discount Rate = 12% Inflation Rate = 3.5% Direct Operating Cost (DOC) per minute = $25 Does not include amortization of costs for ownership Percentage of Fuel-related DOC = 30% Fuel inflation rate = 5%

Model InputsTraffic Growth: 

Model Inputs Traffic Growth Number of planes at start of model: 5194 (from ATA) Number of flights/airplane/year: 1570 Number of planes in 2015: Low estimate: 8054 Medium estimate: 8943 High Estimate: 9289

RNAV Model Results: 

RNAV Model Results

Slide15: 

RNAV Model Results Tornado Diagram Base Case Value 2824.05

RNAV Model ResultsTornado Diagram - Important Variables: 

RNAV Model Results Tornado Diagram - Important Variables

Slide17: 

RNAV Model Results Cumulative Probability Distribution

RNAV Model ResultsProject Summary : 

RNAV Model Results Project Summary Project Name: Advanced Navigation Variable Expected Value 10% 50% 90% Unit R&D Investment 27.2352 27.235 27.235 27.235 millions of dollars Contribution 3248.33 816.64 2599.92 6166.47 millions of dollars Productivity 119.27 Net Present Value 3221.09 789.405 2572.68 6139.24 millions of dollars

Conclusions: 

Conclusions RNAV benefits are potentially high because of high level of initial equipage Benefits inhibited by ATC congestion may be mitigated by other means (e.g. RVSM, data link, ADS-B) Lower Values of RNP Understand vertical navigation benefits and RNP Need better understanding of ATC cost structure Airspace redesign cost and procedure development Controller training.

C/AFTAdvanced NavigationFocus Group : 

C/AFT Advanced Navigation Focus Group Next Steps

Look AtRNAV --> RNP 0.3: 

Improved usage of runway infrastructure (efficiency). Delay Reduction. Maintain VMC acceptance rates under IMC conditions (e.g. converging runway procedures, parallel runway procedures) Tighter Spacing of Departure Procedures Delay Reduction. Increased departure rate because of improved departure procedures. Increased Flights. Reduced noise footprint allows more flights. Reduced Block Fuel / Time. More efficient obstacle clearance procedures. (e.g. engine out procedures). Individual airlines may decide to take this benefit as increased payload, but modeled as reduced block fuel. Reduced Fuel Burned. Look At RNAV --> RNP 0.3

RNAV < (GPS) RNAV + Vertical Navigation: 

RNAV < (GPS) RNAV + Vertical Navigation Access to runways when ILS not available (e.g. construction, scheduled maintenance) Cancellation Diversion. Lower minimums allow near ILS capability for landing. Reduced Block Fuel / Time. More available alternates. Training. Don’t need to train for special conditions when ILS out. Improved departure procedures Delay Reduction. Increase departure rate by allowing separate departure paths for different aircraft types (e.g. turboprop performance departures in Frankfurt) Reduced Block Fuel / Time. Tighter containment on departure paths and path shortening. RNP with stabilized vertical path angle for approaches other than ILS Cancellation Avoidance. Lower minimums allow increased access. Increased Flights. Reduced noise footprint allows more flights Reduced Fuel Burned. Due to stabilized descent. Training. Only need to train one kind of approach.

SFO Model RNAV + RNP 0.3: 

SFO Model RNAV + RNP 0.3 Dave Jones United Airlines