12 Mark Eakin

Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress: 

Paleoclimatology: The role of Pre-Instrumental Data in Understanding Reef Stress C. Mark Eakin World Data Center for Paleoclimatology NOAA National Climatic Data Center Boulder, Colorado with Andrea Grottoli, University of Pennsylvania, and Robert Halley, U.S. Geological Survey Coral Reefs, Climate, and Coral Bleaching Workshop

Slide2: 

Many Timescales of Coral Reef Data Historical Data In Situ / Satellite Data

Paleoclimatic Records: 

Paleoclimatic Records Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Challenges Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Challenges

The question is not if atmospheric CO2 will reach double preindustrial levels (to 560 ppm), but when.: 

The question is not if atmospheric CO2 will reach double preindustrial levels (to 560 ppm), but when. From Wigley, 2000

Slide5: 

Past Climate Change CO2 levels have not exceeded 350 ppm since the Miocene (~24 my ago) -- when coral/algal reef development increased 2001 CO2 ~370 ppm Petit et al. 1999

Is Recent Warming Unusual?: 

Is Recent Warming Unusual? Recent warm decades unprecedented in last 1000 years After Mann et al. 1999

Slide7: 

1997-1998 Global Mass Bleaching Event

What Does the Future Hold: 

What Does the Future Hold The last 1000 years compared to IPCC 2000 scenarios After Bradley 2000

What Global Climate Changes Influence Reefs?: 

What Global Climate Changes Influence Reefs? CO2 Increase Temperature Increase (ENSO) Sea Level Rise Changes in Storminess, Storm Tracks Hydrologic Cycle Changes Paleoenvironmental data can provide information on most of these

Paleoclimatic Records: 

Paleoclimatic Records Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Down the Road Challenges

WDC-Paleo Data Holdings: 

WDC-Paleo Data Holdings Paleoclimatic Data Sites US Global Tree Rings 1081 2231 Pollen 474 1424 Plant Macrofossils 55 314 Corals 2 85 Ice Cores 1 33 Borehole Data 133 837 Fauna 219 220 Insecta 20 27 Paleolimnology 13 29 Paleoceanography 19 1428 Other Paleo Data 1 8 Total 2018 6636 www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/corals.html

Warming Prevalent in Oceans: 

Warming Prevalent in Oceans The graph shows a summary of annual resolution coral d18O isotope records, normalized to the 1923-1980 period (thick line denotes 7-year smooth ). The data show trends consistent with warmer/wetter conditions throughout the tropics. (after Bradley et al. 2003)

Reconstructing Ocean Temperature: 

Reconstructing Ocean Temperature Paleoclimatic Data Provides High Fidelity of Reconstructions of SST Long reconstructions critical to understanding Decadal-to-Centennial Variability After Evans et al. (2000) Paleoceanography, 15 1st EOF of Paleo Reconstruction from Corals 1st EOF of Instrumental SST Anomalies

Reconstructing Ocean Temperature: 

Reconstructing Ocean Temperature Example of reconstruction showing 1828 El Niño (Very Strong in Quinn and Neal 1992 dataset) Data set available for 1800-present After Evans et al. (2000) Paleoceanography, 15 1828 El Niño from coral records

Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching: 

Widespread bleaching in Belize (from Aronson and Precht 1997, 2001) Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching

Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching: 

Widespread bleaching in Belize (from Aronson and Precht 1997, 2001) Paleoecological Data Reveal Catastrophic, Unprecedented Bleaching

Accessing the Data: 

Accessing the Data Easy access to paleodata is now possible through a variety of NOAA sources.

Slide18: 

Data Access Tools: WebMapper

Slide19: 

Data Access Tools: GIS http://map1.ngdc.noaa.gov/

Slide20: 

Data Access Tools: CoRIS

Paleoclimatic Records: 

Paleoclimatic Records Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Challenges

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Florida Keys: 

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Florida Keys South Florida Eakin, Swart, Quinn, Dodge, Halley (in progress) New data will be available in 2004

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands: 

NOAA Coral Reef Watch Paleodata: Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands Eakin, Swart, Quinn, Dodge, Halley (in progress) Caribbean Salinity Experiment (CASE) tracking of water circulation and inputs from the sub-tropical Atlantic Gyre, cross equatorial thermohaline transport, and the temporal/spatial extent of the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) in the Caribbean. Nova Southeastern University (NSU), the University of Miami, and the University of South Florida

Slide24: 

Millennial-Scale Records Year d18O Coral Record from Palmyra After Cobb (in press), Nature

Slide25: 

Millennial-Scale Records After Cobb (in press), Nature

Paleoclimatic Records: 

Paleoclimatic Records Why Paleoclimatic Records? Available Data Coming Soon Challenges: Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Detecting Past Bleaching Events: 

Halley and Hudson (unpublished) Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Detecting Past Bleaching Events: 

Halley and Hudson (unpublished) Data for Biscayne National Park show no signs of bleaching between 1878-1986 Suggests widespread coral bleaching is a phenomenon unique to the past two decades Comparing Fluorescence Markers to Growth Bands to identify loss of bands due to bleaching Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Detecting Past Bleaching Events: 

Grottoli et al (unpublished) Natural bleaching event in Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii August 1996 Good News: Preliminary evidence suggests bleaching may cause changes in coral skeletal carbon isotope Bad news: Changes in oxygen isotope could interfere with corresponding temperature estimates Detecting Past Bleaching Events

Detecting Past Bleaching Events: 

Detecting Past Bleaching Events Burr (unpublished) *** *** * *** *** *** *** **

Detecting Past Bleaching Events: 

Detecting Past Bleaching Events Burr (unpublished) *** *** * *** *** *** *** ** Corals and zooxanthellae produce antioxidant enzymes in response to oxidative stress of high temperatures These enzymes use Cu, Ag and Se in scavenging toxic oxygen

Detecting Past Bleaching Events: 

Detecting Past Bleaching Events Burr (unpublished) Bleached 20X scale bars 500m, Porites divericata Unbleached 20X

Paleoclimatic Records: 

Paleoclimatic Records Value of Paleoclimatic Records Data: Many Available and More Coming Overcoming the Challenges Funding Needs: More records from locations of management interest Research funds to overcome challenges Summary

Slide34: 

Thanks to A. Strong, J. Kleypas, A. Grottoli, R. Aronson, S. Burr, and R. Halley for presentation materials.