Rapid Metabolic Change as a Chance and a Threat to Sustainability: The Case of Amazonia : Rapid Metabolic Change as a Chance and a Threat to Sustainability: The Case of Amazonia Marina Fischer-Kowalski (Vienna)
Norbert Fenzl (Belem)
José A. da Costa Machado (Manaus)
Hercilio C. Bohorquez (Caracas)
Prepared for Open Meeting of the Global Environmental Change Research Community
Rio de Janeiro, Oct. 6-8, 2001
Preface : Preface The following presentation is based upon a preliminary analysis of data on Brazil and Venezuela generated within the EU-financed project 'Amazonia 21' (http://www.amazonia21.org/). We related these data to national material flow accounts for various other countries, from various sources (among them most prominently: World Resources Institute: Adriaanse et al. 1997, Matthews et al. 2000). Our analysis aims at illustrating whether MFA is an adequate tool for issues of sustainability. The reader should be aware, though, that despite many efforts (see for example Steurer/Eurostat 2001) data reliability and comparability across countries is far from excellent, and so our conclusions should be considered rather as grounded hypotheses than as final, well established results. For a more elaborate discussion see Fischer-Kowalski andamp; Amann 2001.
Overview : Overview The Context: Amazonia 21
Metabolic Transition – what is that?
Metabolic transition in a globalized economy – Brazil and Venezuela
Is global trade driving environmental exploitation of the periphery?
Conclusions
1) The Context: Amazonia 21 : 1) The Context: Amazonia 21 Ongoing EU-financed research – teams from Panamazonian Countries (PACs) and Europe participating
Response to Agenda 21-setting by PAC, searching for less destructive ways of economic development
Is material flow analysis an adequate tool to define sustainable development, and develop strategies, for PAC?
2) Metabolic transition – what is that? : 2) Metabolic transition – what is that? Metabolic transition: major change in socio-ecological regime
It implies a qualitative transformation of the mode of subsistence of a society, and therefore of the society – nature interrelation
Core: change in energy metabolism
Socio-ecological regimes in world history : Socio-ecological regimes in world history per capita annual use
Energy Material
Basic human metabolism 3,5 GJ 1 t
(biomass intake by nutrition)
Hunter-gatherers 10-20 GJ 2-3 t
(uncontrolled solar energy use)
agrarian societies 60-80 GJ 4-5 t
(controlled solar energy use)
industrial societies 250 GJ 20-22t
(fossil energy use)
In history: Symptoms of Metabolic transition fromagrarian to industrial mode : In history: Symptoms of Metabolic transition from agrarian to industrial mode
Rapid increase in fossil energy use
Rapid population growth
Rapid increase in income (GDP)
Historical examples: fossil fuels use in Austria and UK : Historical examples: fossil fuels use in Austria and UK
Fossil fuels, Population, GDP in Brazil & Venezuela 1975-1995 : Fossil fuels, Population, GDP in Brazil andamp; Venezuela 1975-1995
In history: Symptoms of metabolic transition from agrarian to industrial mode continued... : In history: Symptoms of metabolic transition from agrarian to industrial mode continued...
Relief on agricultural and forestry land use
Per capita levels energy andamp; materials use = transition from agrarian to industrial level
Biomass used in Brazil & Venezuela 1975-1995 : Biomass used in Brazil andamp; Venezuela 1975-1995
Per capita levels of materials use: history and present : Per capita levels of materials use: history and present
3) Metabolic transition now: Symptoms of „extractive economies“ : 3) Metabolic transition now: Symptoms of „extractive economies'
Intensification of agriculture and forestry, increasing pressure on land
High per capita materials and energy use
Very high materials intensity of the economy (tons per unit GDP)
Per capita materials use 1995 : Per capita materials use 1995 Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI
Per capita income, 1995 : Per capita income, 1995 Sources: World Bank
Material Intensity 1995 : Material Intensity 1995 Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, World Bank
Metabolic transitions in the globalized economy : Metabolic transitions in the globalized economy Declining material intensity in the industrial core countries
Alarming: Rising materials intensity at the periphery („extractive economies')
Rich industrial countries externalize materially intensive processes, and environmental burdens
Material Intensity declining in industrial, but rising in developing countries : Material Intensity declining in industrial, but rising in developing countries Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, OECD GDP (real, constant) Material Input (DMI) Material Intensity (DMI/GDP)
4) Is global trade driving environmental exploitation in peripheral economies? : 4) Is global trade driving environmental exploitation in peripheral economies?
Imports & Exports in tons as share of material input, 1975-1995 : Imports andamp; Exports in tons as share of material input, 1975-1995 Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, OECD Exports [% share of DMI] Imports [% share of DMI]
Physical trade balances: tons imported minus tons exported, 1995 : Physical trade balances: tons imported minus tons exported, 1995 Sources: IFF, Amazonia21, WRI, World Bank
Material Intensity (tons/$) of International Trade, 1995 : Material Intensity (tons/$) of International Trade, 1995 Sources: Amazonia21, IFF, WRI
5) Conclusions : 5) Conclusions Amazonian countries have a specific metabolic profile: different from history, different from present-day industrial countries
an unsustainable profile: high material input, low income, rising material intensity
this profile is reinforced by international trade
no „wait and see': ongoing structural change is not working towards sustainability
References : References Adriaanse, A., Bringezu, S., Hammond, A., Moriguchi, Y., Rodenberg, E., Rogich, D., and Schütz, H. (1997), Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economies, Washington DC, World Resources Institute.
Berkhout, F. (1998), 'Aggregate resource efficiency: A review of evidence', in Vellinga, P., Managing a material world: Perspectives in industrial ecology, Dordrecht, Kluwer
Fischer-Kowalski, M. (1998), Society's Metabolism. The Intellectual History of Material Flow Analysis, Part I, 1860 - 1970, Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 2, No. 1, pp. 61-78.
Fischer-Kowalski, M. and Amann, C. (2001). „Beyond IPAT and Kuznets Curves: Globalization as a Vital Factor in Analysing the Environmental Impact of Socio-Economic Metabolism', in: Population and Environment, 23: 7-47.
Matthews, E., Amann, C., Fischer-Kowalski, M., Bringezu, S., Hüttler, W., Kleijn, R., Moriguchi, Y., Ottke, C., Rodenburg, E., Rogich, D., Schandl, H., Schütz, H., van der Voet, E., and Weisz, H. (2000), The Weight of Nations: Material Outflows from Industrial Economies, Washington, World Resources Institute.
Muradian, R. and Martinez-Alier, J. (2001), South-North Materials Flow: History and Environmental Repercussions, Innovation, Vol. 14, No. 2, 171-187.
Schandl, H. and Schulz, N. B. (2001), 'Industrial Ecology: United Kingdom', in Ayres, R. U. et al., Handbook for Industrial Ecology, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, in print
Steurer, Anton, Schütz, Helmut, and Eurostat (2001). Economy-wide Material Flow Accounts and derived Indicators. A methodological guide. Luxenburg, Eurostat.
Weisz, H., Fischer-Kowalski, M., Grünbühel, C. M., Haberl, H., Krausmann, F., and Winiwarter, V. (2001), Global Environmental Change and Historical Transitions, Innovation, Vol. 14, No. 2, 117-142.