Day 3 One

Constructing Risk: Social Adaptive Capacity and Water Scarcity in Southern Africa : Constructing Risk: Social Adaptive Capacity and Water Scarcity in Southern Africa Forum on Drought Risk and Development Policy: Must Africa be Hostage to Climate Shocks? Nairobi, Kenya, Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2005 Dr. Anthony Turton Gibb-SERA Chair in Integrated Water Resource Management aturton@csir.co.za andamp; President: Universities Partnership for Transboundary Rivers www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu


Slide2 : We start our story with our planet being seen as a blue oasis floating in the lifeless infinity of outer space. Thus we start the complex journey to the eventual way that we construct our perceptions of risk. And in our arrogance we decide to call the only planet in the solar system that is covered with water – Earth.


Slide3 : Geophysics Knows no Political Boundaries


Southern Africa – an arid and variable climate in which drought is both normal and seemingly unpreventable. : Southern Africa – an arid and variable climate in which drought is both normal and seemingly unpreventable.


So what about constructing risks? : So what about constructing risks? Political borders are artificial constructs made by man and imposed on natural ecosystems. Humans live in a world that is partially constructed by themselves and partially natural. The more 'developed' a country is, the greater the individual is removed from the natural world and buffered by the vagaries of nature.


So what about constructing risks? : So what about constructing risks? There are thus three distinct types of 'system': Natural systems (ecosystems) Technical systems (innovation or human technical skills) Social systems (social adaptive capacity, conflict resolution, culture, norms, laws, policies etc). Social systems (social ingenuity) buffer humans from the vagaries of natural systems by generating incentives for the application of appropriate technical systems (technical ingenuity). This is the key lesson.


So what about constructing risks? : So what about constructing risks? Social ingenuity is therefore the independent variable in the context of this discussion. Refer to Figures 1 andamp; 5 shown by Dr. Patrick yesterday (see discussion paper). Fig. 5 shows clearly that countries with social resource abundance are able to manage their way out of crisis caused by natural disaster. This is shown dramatically in Fig. 1.


So what about constructing risks? : So what about constructing risks? The way we construct risk determines the way we manage it. If we call the risk 'water scarcity', then we have incorrectly labelled the problem as non-availability of water, which sounds intuitively correct, but is actually wrong. 'Water scarcity' as a risk is actually about a low assurance of supply and therefore a higher vulnerability to natural climatic oscillations.


MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL : MEAN ANNUAL RAINFALL SADC Average Annual Rainfall = 948 mm © Pete Ashton


How Water Scarce is Southern Africa? : How Water Scarce is Southern Africa? © O’Keeffe et al


Slide11 : Perennial Rivers and Dispute Potential © P Ashton


WATER AVAILABLE PER PERSON IN 2002 AND 2025 : WATER AVAILABLE PER PERSON IN 2002 AND 2025 © Pete Ashton


Dams and hydraulic inf’structure in Southern Africa : Dams and hydraulic inf’structure in Southern Africa © P Ashton


WATER TRANSFERS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA : WATER TRANSFERS IN SOUTHERN AFRICA © Pete Ashton


So we need to reconstruct our risk perception by developing concepts : So we need to reconstruct our risk perception by developing concepts What is a resource? A 1st Order Resource is a natural resource. That may be scarce or abundant. Most 1st Order Resources are non-renewable and are therefore managed as a stock (coal, oil, gold). Water is not a stock because it is fugitive in time and space, and is better considered as a flux. A 2nd Order Resource is a social resource. That may be scarce or abundant. Is also a flux, changing in time and space.


Social Adaptive Capacity as a 2nd Order Resource : Social Adaptive Capacity as a 2nd Order Resource Social Adaptive Capacity (SAC) is the ability of a given social entity to anticipate forthcoming catastrophe and then mobilize sufficient resources (both 1st and 2nd Order) with which to mitigate the crisis in an effective and sustainable way (Turton, 2005 - Nairobi). SAC is therefore a species of 2nd Order Resource that is fugitive in nature and highly dependent on the culture, history and economic circumstances in which it is embedded.


Case Studies of Social Adaptive Capacity as a 2nd Order Resource : Case Studies of Social Adaptive Capacity as a 2nd Order Resource South African negotiations that ended Apartheid. Negotiations that ended South African engagement in the Angolan Civil War. Negotiations that ended the Mozambican Civil War. Floods on the lower Zambezi River. 1999 Floods in the Incomati Basin (Maguga Dam). 2000 Floods in Mozambique.


Slide18 : Water is a strategic resource – it is the foundation of economic growth and a driver of regional integration, particularly in regions of endemic water-scarcity. We must start to think of water in terms of jobs per drop…. value-added per drop, livelihoods per drop, and ultimately comparative advantage per drop.


Slide19 : Efficient Use of Water – More Livelihoods per Drop © A Turton


Slide20 : Beeckman et al Groundwater Recharge


Slide21 : Source: Scholes andamp; Biggs, 2004:4 HADCM3 Climate Model Projections using IPCC SRES A2 Scenario showing Precipitation for 2050


Slide22 : Lessons from the IWRM Paradigm The global discourse on sustainable development is being driven from this quadrant. But many African countries needs are still located in this quadrant The cross-over came from the UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) (Rio Conference) and the parallel Dublin Conference The big challenge to Integrated Drought Management is thus to learn from IWRM and to critically examine the concepts that underlie our existing risk management paradigms


Virtual Water as a Coping Strategy : Virtual Water as a Coping Strategy Virtual Water trade is a strategic level issue. Scale is always important in any water analysis. To translate VW benefits into household food security is 2nd Order Resource dependent. Stated differently, if there is a 2nd Order Resource Scarcity in a given country, then VW trade will not translate to household food security. The notion of a water footprint as opposed to VW is a key concept (Hoekstra – IHE Delft)


Slide24 : We need to bust the myth about Africa’s vulnerability to drought ... © A Turton 1980 just as it is a myth that the lion is only a hunter.


Challenges to the Drought Risk & Development Policy Interface : Challenges to the Drought Risk andamp; Development Policy Interface We need to foster African ownership of both the problem and the solution. The science/government interface is crucial for appropriate policy support. Political buy-in at the highest possible level is a necessary pre-condition for success. Institutions are important, but they must mobilize and sustain the appropriate forms of 2nd Order Resources (which are fugitive).


Challenges to the Drought Risk & Development Policy Interface : Challenges to the Drought Risk andamp; Development Policy Interface It is difficult to generate the correct 'mix' of 1st Order-Focus Solutions (infrastructure to improve the assurance of supply) and 2nd Order-Focus Solutions (institutions, policy, incentives etc) in a sustainable way. We need a balance between national self-sufficiency in food versus food security. We need to understand the dynamics of globalization because drought vulnerability is embedded within this bigger picture.


WEALTH – the key to success : WEALTH – the key to success W (water - assurance of supply = infrastructure) E (energy and education) A (access to markets, justice, healthcare etc) L (land – the burning issue in Africa) T (technology that is appropriate) H (health – both human and ecosystem) Only when we have met these policy objectives will we reduce Africa’s vulnerability to drought. Challenge for Integrated Drought Management.


Thank You : Thank You