heat health warning system

Slide2: 

How Are These Systems Unique? A custom-made system is developed for each urban area, based on specific meteorology for each locale, as well as urban structure and demographics These systems are based on actual weather-health relationships, as determined by daily variations in human mortality These systems are based on much more than just temperature and humidity

Slide3: 

World Meteorological Organization Showcase Projects Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware Participating Cities: - Dayton/Cincinnati, USA - New Orleans, USA - Philadelphia, USA - Phoenix, USA - Rome, Italy - Shanghai, China - Toronto, Canada - Washington, USA - Five additional cities, Southern USA - Chicago/St. Louis, New for 2003

Slide4: 

Maximum Temperature vs. Daily Mortality: New York and Jacksonville, Florida New York Jacksonville

Slide5: 

Maximum Temperature Health Thresholds Boston 30ºC Atlanta 32ºC Dallas 40ºC Denver 34ºC Phoenix 44ºC

Cook County, Illinois: July ‘95: 

Cook County, Illinois: July ‘95

Slide7: 

Steps in System Development Step 1: Determine air masses daily over a city using newly-developed Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) Step 2: Are any of these air masses ‘offensive’? Step 3: What aspects of the offensive air mass make it most detrimental to human health?

SSC Air Mass Types: 

SSC Air Mass Types DP Dry Polar (cP) DM Dry Moderate (Pacific) DT Dry Tropical (cT) MP Moist Polar (mP) MM Moist Moderate (Overrunning) MT Moist Tropical (mT) MT+ Moist Tropical Plus TR Transition between air masses ---------------- Sheridan, S.C., 2002: The redevelopment of a weather-type classification scheme for North America. Int’. J. Climatology. Kalkstein et al., 1996, A New Spatial Synoptic Classification: Application to Air Mass Analysis. Int. J. Climatology.

Characteristics of PittsburghAir Mass Types: 

Characteristics of Pittsburgh Air Mass Types

Slide10: 

Removing Non-Climatological Noise from the Mortality Data

Phoenix’s Rising Mortality: 

Phoenix’s Rising Mortality

Slide12: 

Mean Deaths in Rome by Day standardization is important

Results: Offensive Air Mass Types: 

Results: Offensive Air Mass Types Moist Tropical Plus (MT+): Very warm, humid High overnight temperatures Dry Tropical (DT): Hot, dry High solar load Dry Tropical Plus (DT+; Phoenix only): Extremely hot, dry High solar load

Mean Mortality Increases: 

Mean Mortality Increases

Mean Anomalous Mortality by Weather Type, Rome: 

Mean Anomalous Mortality by Weather Type, Rome

Mean Anomalous Mortality by Weather Type, Shanghai: 

Mean Anomalous Mortality by Weather Type, Shanghai

Likelihood of Excess MortalityToronto: 

Likelihood of Excess Mortality Toronto

Slide18: 

Development of Forecast Algorithms: Within-Air Mass Category Mortality Variations

ROME: 

ROME MT+ mortality decreases through summer

ROME: 

ROME DT mortality vs. morning temperature

Slide22: 

In Toronto, When a DT or MT+ Air Mass is Forecast, Three Levels of Advisory are Possible:

Year-to-Year Variability: Toronto: 

Year-to-Year Variability: Toronto

Slide29: 

Summary of Watches/Warnings Under NWS System and Air Mass System, Summer 2001 New Orleans, Louisiana

Toronto: 2001 Results: 

Toronto: 2001 Results Alerts June 29th (DT 71%) July 23rd (MT+ 88%) July 24th (MT+ 84%) Aug 5th (DT 65%) Emergencies June 15th (MT+ 96%) Aug 6th (DT 91%) Aug 7th (DT 93%) Aug 8th (DT 97%) Aug 9th (DT 99%) Four day run of heat emergencies Aug 6-9 would have only occurred two other times in the 46 years for which data was provided.

Slide31: 

Steps That can be Taken When Alerts or Emergencies are Called 1. NWS alerts appropriate city agency (e.g., Department of Health, Office of Aging, etc.) 2. City develops (or already has in place) intervention plans 3. Effectiveness of system can be monitored in three manners, and improvements are implemented if there are shortcomings: --forecasting effectiveness (false positives or negatives) --accuracy in estimating health impacts of offensive weather --noting if we are saving lives.