logging in or signing up FFMP GenX Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINT Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 277 Category: Product Traini.. License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: June 19, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Flash FloodMonitoring and Prediction(FFMP) : Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) John Ferree Warning Decision Training Branch Norman, OK Severe Weather/Flash Flood WDM July 9-12, 2002 Quote: Quote Overview: Overview FFMP – How?, What?, When?, and Why? FFMP 2.0 Products FFMP 2.0 Limitations and Operational Use Flash Flood Lead Times: Flash Flood Lead Times GPRA Information http://205.156.54.206/ost/nws_sci_needs_final_02_20_02.pdf Flash Flood Accuracy (POD): Flash Flood Accuracy (POD) GPRA Information http://205.156.54.206/ost/nws_sci_needs_final_02_20_02.pdf PBZ Flash Flood Verification: PBZ Flash Flood Verification Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) algorithm is based on the Areal Mean Basin Estimated Rainfall (AMBER) Bob Davis Pittsburgh, PA WFO Paul Jendrowski Blackburg, VA WFO AMBER operational since May 1996 FFMP Overview: FFMP Overview Continuous monitoring of rainfall rate and its comparison to flash flood guidance (FFG) for high resolution stream basins. Automated alerts when a dangerous flood situation may be developing on a given stream or catchment. Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction In AWIPS Build 5 and Beyond - Smith et al 2000, Preprints 15th Conference on Hydrology, AMS FFMP Benefits: FFMP Benefits Longer lead times Fewer missed events Increased forecaster situational awareness Reduced forecaster fatigue Focus for applied research Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction In AWIPS Build 5 and Beyond - Smith et al 2000, Preprints 15th Conference on Hydrology, AMS FFMP 2.0 Basics: FFMP 2.0 Basics AWIPS build 5.1.2 - using WSR-88D Digital Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (DHR) All basins (andgt;2 mi2) in county warning area are pre-defined Basin rainfall rate (in/hr) is computed from the DHR on a basin level every volume scan Accumulations (of various time scales) are compared to Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) on a county and basin scale FFMP Outputs: FFMP Outputs Graphic displays of: Basin rainfall accumulation Ratio of basin accumulations to FFG Accumulations – FFG (Difference) For time periods of from 30 minutes to 6 hours Line graph of basin rainfall, basin rainfall rate, and FFG for the same time periods. County Level Display of Basin Average Precipitation: County Level Display of Basin Average Precipitation Displays the data value for the basin in the county that has the highest precipitation accumulation Basin Average Precipitation: Basin Average Precipitation Display of Basin level precipitation will only display those basins within the county selected. Ratio County Precip. / FFG: Ratio County Precip. / FFG County level ratio values are calculated using the maximum basin precipitation in the county, divided by the county average FFG. Ratio Basin Precip. / FFG: Ratio Basin Precip. / FFG Basin level ratio of precipitation accumulations divided by basin level FFG. County Precip – FFG (Diff): County Precip – FFG (Diff) County level difference values are calculated using the maximum basin precipitation in the county minus the county average FFG. Basin Precip. - FFG (Diff): Basin Precip. - FFG (Diff) Basin level 1 hour precipitation minus FFG Note table duration is set at 1 hour, but graphic states 1.5 hour. What happened here? What’s Better?: What’s Better? Ratio Difference FFMP Flash Flood Analysis: FFMP Flash Flood Analysis Basin Trend Graph takes some getting used to. Where the accumulation (colored area) exceeds the FFG (purple line) there is a threat of flash flooding. Flash Flood Guidance Rate Flash Flood Threat Index (FFTI): Flash Flood Threat Index (FFTI) The color of the FFTI will represent the value of the chosen attribute over a chosen time period Basin Accumulation Ratio of accumulation to FFG Difference between accumulation and FFG Time Frame from 30 minutes to six hours Flash Flood Threat Index (FFTI): Flash Flood Threat Index (FFTI) White - Little or no activity Green - Precipitation Yellow - Moderate precipitation Red - Heavy precipitation Grey - Not functioning properly FFTI Change GUI – left click on 'FF' button FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC FFMP 2.0 Basin Delineation: FFMP 2.0 Basin Delineation National Basin Delineation Project NSSL ArcInfo used to define the watershed boundaries USGS 1 arc second (30 m) DEM data supplied by EROS Data Center Continental U.S. completed June 2002. www.nssl.noaa.gov/teams/western/basins FFMP 2.0 Basin Delineation: FFMP 2.0 Basin Delineation Basin Customization COMET 3-day course Skills to identify, create, alter, and re-define high resolution basins delineated by NSSL GIS skills and tools http://www.comet.ucar.edu/class/basin_customization/index.htm Slide24: 229.5 km Range ring NSSL Basins 18,488 Aggregated 12,784 Aggregate: Clip all basins beyond 230 km Eliminate all segments andlt; 2 mi2 Slide25: FFMP Basins 5,608 NSSL CD FFMP FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC DHR to Rainfall Rate: DHR to Rainfall Rate Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) 1 km (.54nm) x 1 degree 256 data levels 124 nm range Nearest 0.5 dBZ FFMP processor converts to rainfall rate Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate: 2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in/hr) .41 .38 .39 .37 .29 .14 .20 .30 .16 .24 Grid size 1o x 1km Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate Watershed Boundary Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate: 2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in/hr) .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 Grid size 1o x 1km Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate Watershed Boundary .29 Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate: 2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in/hr) .41 .38 .39 .37 .29 .14 .20 .30 .16 .24 Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate If watershed is divided into segments Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate: 2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in/hr) .37 .37 .37 .25 .25 .25 .25 .37 .20 .20 Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate Large Variation in Rainfall Rate in Short Distance FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC Basin to Basin Flow: Basin to Basin Flow Flash Flood forecasting requires more than accurate forecasts of excessive accumulation. Know your basins! FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC Basin Average Rainfall: Basin Average Rainfall Basin may include Several 1 km (.54nm) x 1 degree bins One 1 km (.54nm) x 1 degree bin Height of reflectivity used for calculation may be Hundreds of feet Over 10,000 feet Radar Precipitation Estimates: Radar Precipitation Estimates Recall limitations of radar precipitation estimates Brightband contamination Hail contamination Inaccurate Z/R relationship FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC Flash Flood Guidance (FFG): Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) RFC provided guidance on the basin rainfall accumulations over a specific time period (1, 3 hours) needed to initiate flooding on streams. Assumes no rainfall since data cutoff. Summary: Summary Flash Flood forecasting requires more than accurate forecasts of excessive accumulation. Know your basins! Radar estimates of rainfall accumulations may be inaccurate. Keep radar limitations in mind! Flash Flood Guidance does not take into account rainfall and associated soil saturation since data cutoff time. Questions or Comments? : Questions or Comments? John.T.Ferree@noaa.gov www.wdtb.noaa.gov 405-366-6560 ext 4266 You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
FFMP GenX Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINT Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 277 Category: Product Traini.. License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: June 19, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Flash FloodMonitoring and Prediction(FFMP) : Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) John Ferree Warning Decision Training Branch Norman, OK Severe Weather/Flash Flood WDM July 9-12, 2002 Quote: Quote Overview: Overview FFMP – How?, What?, When?, and Why? FFMP 2.0 Products FFMP 2.0 Limitations and Operational Use Flash Flood Lead Times: Flash Flood Lead Times GPRA Information http://205.156.54.206/ost/nws_sci_needs_final_02_20_02.pdf Flash Flood Accuracy (POD): Flash Flood Accuracy (POD) GPRA Information http://205.156.54.206/ost/nws_sci_needs_final_02_20_02.pdf PBZ Flash Flood Verification: PBZ Flash Flood Verification Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP) algorithm is based on the Areal Mean Basin Estimated Rainfall (AMBER) Bob Davis Pittsburgh, PA WFO Paul Jendrowski Blackburg, VA WFO AMBER operational since May 1996 FFMP Overview: FFMP Overview Continuous monitoring of rainfall rate and its comparison to flash flood guidance (FFG) for high resolution stream basins. Automated alerts when a dangerous flood situation may be developing on a given stream or catchment. Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction In AWIPS Build 5 and Beyond - Smith et al 2000, Preprints 15th Conference on Hydrology, AMS FFMP Benefits: FFMP Benefits Longer lead times Fewer missed events Increased forecaster situational awareness Reduced forecaster fatigue Focus for applied research Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction In AWIPS Build 5 and Beyond - Smith et al 2000, Preprints 15th Conference on Hydrology, AMS FFMP 2.0 Basics: FFMP 2.0 Basics AWIPS build 5.1.2 - using WSR-88D Digital Hybrid Scan Reflectivity (DHR) All basins (andgt;2 mi2) in county warning area are pre-defined Basin rainfall rate (in/hr) is computed from the DHR on a basin level every volume scan Accumulations (of various time scales) are compared to Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) on a county and basin scale FFMP Outputs: FFMP Outputs Graphic displays of: Basin rainfall accumulation Ratio of basin accumulations to FFG Accumulations – FFG (Difference) For time periods of from 30 minutes to 6 hours Line graph of basin rainfall, basin rainfall rate, and FFG for the same time periods. County Level Display of Basin Average Precipitation: County Level Display of Basin Average Precipitation Displays the data value for the basin in the county that has the highest precipitation accumulation Basin Average Precipitation: Basin Average Precipitation Display of Basin level precipitation will only display those basins within the county selected. Ratio County Precip. / FFG: Ratio County Precip. / FFG County level ratio values are calculated using the maximum basin precipitation in the county, divided by the county average FFG. Ratio Basin Precip. / FFG: Ratio Basin Precip. / FFG Basin level ratio of precipitation accumulations divided by basin level FFG. County Precip – FFG (Diff): County Precip – FFG (Diff) County level difference values are calculated using the maximum basin precipitation in the county minus the county average FFG. Basin Precip. - FFG (Diff): Basin Precip. - FFG (Diff) Basin level 1 hour precipitation minus FFG Note table duration is set at 1 hour, but graphic states 1.5 hour. What happened here? What’s Better?: What’s Better? Ratio Difference FFMP Flash Flood Analysis: FFMP Flash Flood Analysis Basin Trend Graph takes some getting used to. Where the accumulation (colored area) exceeds the FFG (purple line) there is a threat of flash flooding. Flash Flood Guidance Rate Flash Flood Threat Index (FFTI): Flash Flood Threat Index (FFTI) The color of the FFTI will represent the value of the chosen attribute over a chosen time period Basin Accumulation Ratio of accumulation to FFG Difference between accumulation and FFG Time Frame from 30 minutes to six hours Flash Flood Threat Index (FFTI): Flash Flood Threat Index (FFTI) White - Little or no activity Green - Precipitation Yellow - Moderate precipitation Red - Heavy precipitation Grey - Not functioning properly FFTI Change GUI – left click on 'FF' button FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC FFMP 2.0 Basin Delineation: FFMP 2.0 Basin Delineation National Basin Delineation Project NSSL ArcInfo used to define the watershed boundaries USGS 1 arc second (30 m) DEM data supplied by EROS Data Center Continental U.S. completed June 2002. www.nssl.noaa.gov/teams/western/basins FFMP 2.0 Basin Delineation: FFMP 2.0 Basin Delineation Basin Customization COMET 3-day course Skills to identify, create, alter, and re-define high resolution basins delineated by NSSL GIS skills and tools http://www.comet.ucar.edu/class/basin_customization/index.htm Slide24: 229.5 km Range ring NSSL Basins 18,488 Aggregated 12,784 Aggregate: Clip all basins beyond 230 km Eliminate all segments andlt; 2 mi2 Slide25: FFMP Basins 5,608 NSSL CD FFMP FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC DHR to Rainfall Rate: DHR to Rainfall Rate Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) 1 km (.54nm) x 1 degree 256 data levels 124 nm range Nearest 0.5 dBZ FFMP processor converts to rainfall rate Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate: 2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in/hr) .41 .38 .39 .37 .29 .14 .20 .30 .16 .24 Grid size 1o x 1km Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate Watershed Boundary Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate: 2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in/hr) .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 .29 Grid size 1o x 1km Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate Watershed Boundary .29 Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate: 2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in/hr) .41 .38 .39 .37 .29 .14 .20 .30 .16 .24 Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate If watershed is divided into segments Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate: 2130 – 2135 UTC Rainfall (in/hr) .37 .37 .37 .25 .25 .25 .25 .37 .20 .20 Conversion Rainfall Rate to Basin Rainfall Rate Large Variation in Rainfall Rate in Short Distance FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC Basin to Basin Flow: Basin to Basin Flow Flash Flood forecasting requires more than accurate forecasts of excessive accumulation. Know your basins! FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC Basin Average Rainfall: Basin Average Rainfall Basin may include Several 1 km (.54nm) x 1 degree bins One 1 km (.54nm) x 1 degree bin Height of reflectivity used for calculation may be Hundreds of feet Over 10,000 feet Radar Precipitation Estimates: Radar Precipitation Estimates Recall limitations of radar precipitation estimates Brightband contamination Hail contamination Inaccurate Z/R relationship FFMP Limitations: FFMP Limitations Delineated basins require customization Mapping of basin to DHR critical to output Requires knowledge of basins and stream flow from basin to basin Radar limitations are masked Flash Flood Guidance development processes inconsistent from RFC to RFC Flash Flood Guidance (FFG): Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) RFC provided guidance on the basin rainfall accumulations over a specific time period (1, 3 hours) needed to initiate flooding on streams. Assumes no rainfall since data cutoff. Summary: Summary Flash Flood forecasting requires more than accurate forecasts of excessive accumulation. Know your basins! Radar estimates of rainfall accumulations may be inaccurate. Keep radar limitations in mind! Flash Flood Guidance does not take into account rainfall and associated soil saturation since data cutoff time. Questions or Comments? : Questions or Comments? John.T.Ferree@noaa.gov www.wdtb.noaa.gov 405-366-6560 ext 4266