Bridges2

North Korea – Building Bridges: 

North Korea – Building Bridges Tim Beal and Don Borrie VUW Asian Studies Institute & NZ Institute of International Affairs Wellington, 21 July 2004 http://www.vuw.ac.nz/~caplabtb/dprk/NK_paper.htm#beal

Building Bridges: 

Building Bridges Building bridges between NZ and NK NK – DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea SK – ROK Republic of Korea Don Borrie NZ-DPRK Society Delegation of April – photos, video, discussion

Setting the scene: 

Setting the scene Bridge connects two separated entities Don – bridge building between NZ and NK Bridge also defines and illustrates separation Other bridges to be built Focus on two 1: Different perceptions of reality 2: Different political positions

Different perceptions of reality: 

Different perceptions of reality Donald Rumsfeld Reports that say that something hasn't happened are always interesting to me, because as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3254852.stm

What Rumsfeld didn’t mention: 

What Rumsfeld didn’t mention Things we think we know, but we don’t NK is much demonized – reality is more uncertain and complex Four letter words Not Cheney to Leahy http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/06/24/cheney.leahy/ Two come to mind

Iraq and Lies: 

Iraq and Lies WMD, links to El Qaeda…. Blair admitted Sunday that claim that 400,000 mass graves had been found in Iraq was false They found 5,000 http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1263899,00.html So many lies about Iraq – what about NK? http://media.guardian.co.uk/site/story/0,14173,1264970,00.html Two recent incidents in SK Ask – Is Bush policy based on a lie?

Two incidents: 

Two incidents Many cases where doubts arise about portrayal of NK Focus on two which have surfaced in past week 1 - KAL 858 bombing of 1987 2 – naval clashes

1987: 

1987 General Chun Doo-hwan under increasing pressure to step down Decides to transfer power to ‘younger brother ‘ Gen Roh Tae-woo Nominated him for presidency Veteran US journalist Don Oberdorfer notes that Nomination caused biggest demonstrations since 1960 Roh was not expected to win

Prelude to election: 

Prelude to election 29 Nov 1987 KAL 857 blows up over Andaman Sea – all killed Two ‘NK agents’ apprehended One commits suicide Other – Kim Hyon-hee - brought to Seoul days before election Roh wins

Doubts arise: 

Doubts arise NK denied involvement No NK motive – Roh benefited 1.5 million votes Kim Hyon-hee’s sentence commuted and she was freed Married her chief guard Problems with investigation procedures

Doubts continue: 

Doubts continue Doubts have continued over the years Some suggest it was a private killing Others have deeper suspicions Recently ruling party called for it to be probed by Presidential Truth Commission on Suspicious Deaths Set up by Kim Dae-jung to investigate deaths during military dictatorships Opposed by conservatives

One Seoul newspaper: 

One Seoul newspaper There has been a suspicion that some spy agents loyal to Roh and his predecessor Chun Doo-hwan had plotted the bombing to bounce back the popularity of the then ruling camp in the lead up to the 1987 presidential election. It was common for the past regimes in the South to use the North's potential military threat as a bait for the public to vote for the ruling party candidates, who argued they had strong and stable power to protect the country. The Supreme Court sentenced Kim Hyon-hee to death in March 1990. But Roh, the then head of state, gave her a special pardon the next month. In December 1997 she married a secret agent who had guarded her. Many domestic media, including The Korea Times, had tried to contact her for an interview, but she declined. Her testimony is considered a key to solving the current controversy over the truth of the KAL accident because there has been a strong argument that Kim was not a North Korean spy at all. http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/200407/kt2004071117504912070.htm

Other implications: 

Other implications The KAL bombing caused NK to be put on the the US government ‘terrorism list’ That effectively debars NK from access to international financial agencies Removal from list is key NK demand

N-S Naval clashes: 

N-S Naval clashes Naval clashes a recurring issue Most frequent in West Sea in summer – crab fishing Northern Limit Line (NLL) Unilateral US/SK demarcation line not negotiated with NK

Incident 29 June 2002: 

Incident 29 June 2002 Southern boat sunk, loss of life NK expresses ‘regret’ Assumption that it was NK’s fault Many said a deliberate provocation Anger over success of World Cup Other stories circulated in South suggested Southern fishing boats were being chased out of Northern waters SK naval boat rammed NK one which then opened fire and sank the SK warship http://www.kimsoft.com/2002/westsea2a.htm

Continuing source of friction: 

Continuing source of friction N and S agree 15 June 2004 on 6 measures to prevent reoccurrence Radio communication with each other Refrain from physical actions Cooperate against third country (i.e. Chinese) poachers http://210.145.168.243/pk/206th_issue/2004061204.htm

14 July incident: 

14 July incident SK navy claims NK boat crossed NLL SK fired warning shots when NK ship ignored warnings NK boat retreated http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200407/kt2004071422421611990.htm

NK belligerence?: 

NK belligerence? Yet another NK incursion and provocation? Yet another example of NK belligerence? Further proof that US needs to keep forces in SK to deter northern invasion? Pyongyang sent a telegram to Seoul Claimed NK ship chasing Chinese fishing boat It had sent three radio messages to Southern side

President Roh Moo-hyun furious: 

President Roh Moo-hyun furious SK navy admitted a cover up They had received radio messages Pres Roh orders investigation Why had navy acted in defiance of government policy?

Korea Times (Seoul): 

Korea Times (Seoul) How the military could have made a false report on an incident that could have escalated into further armed clashes defies understanding. Particular emphasis should be placed on revealing whether this accident was intentionally caused by individuals disgruntled with the currently amicable military relationship between the two Koreas as some suspect http://times.hankooki.com/lpage/opinion/200407/kt2004071816241154050.htm

Healthy skepticism: 

Healthy skepticism None of this proves that NK is in the right, or SK in the wrong Rangoon bombing of 1983 and Japanese abductions might be examples of NK security acting at odds with government policy Merely that we have to dig beneath the surface with healthy skepticism Oliver Cromwell: “I beseech you in the bowels of Christ think it possible you may be mistaken” letter to the General Assembly of the Church of Scotland. 1650

The second bridge: 

The second bridge Different political positions Focusing on nuclear confrontation between US and NK Sketch background

Nuclear power in East Asia: 

Nuclear power in East Asia SK and Japan both heavily dependent on nuclear power US forced SK to abandon weapons programme How long to resume? Japan can weaponise very quickly NK also needs nuclear power And nuclear weapons?

NK and nuclear weapons: 

NK and nuclear weapons Three major questions When did programme start? What technologies are used? Has it/ Can it develop a deliverable nuclear weapon? Answers to all three very uncertain

First ethics and Proliferation: 

First ethics and Proliferation No God-given reason why one country should have nuclear weapons and not another Practical and contingent reasons, not moral ones

Proliferation – an absolute evil?: 

Proliferation – an absolute evil? No – use, or danger of use, is the problem, not proliferation as such Proliferation may lessen the chances of nuclear weapons being used John Bolton, top US anti-proliferation official has long experience in opposing proliferation Worked with Jesse Helms to ‘ counter a voter registration drive on behalf of blacks and organized labor’ http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=F30B10FB3E5C0C718CDDA00894DB404482

NPT: 

NPT Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has two legs Non-nuclear states forgo nuclear weapons in exchange for help with nuclear power Nuclear-weapons states move towards disarmament Do not threaten NNWS with nuclear weapons Negative Security Assurances US position ambiguous

NK and NPT: 

NK and NPT NK signed NPT under Soviet pressure in late 1980s Early 1990s the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), using US information, concluded that NK might be extracting plutonium, which could be used for weapons Never been any direct evidence that any weapons have been, or can be, produced

Crisis of 93/94: 

Crisis of 93/94 Clinton contemplating airstrike against NK reactor NK (conventional) relation would cause immense death and destruction in SK (and Americans there) SK opposition

Carter intervention June 1994: 

Carter intervention June 1994 Carter goes to Pyongyang He and Kim Il Sung draft agreement Carter out-manouevres White House by announcing this in CNN interview from Pyongyang WH has to accept principle >>Agreed Framework

Agreed Framework: 

Agreed Framework NK mothballed plutonium reactor US promised to arrange supply of two Light Water Reactors to replace it Funded mainly by SK, Japan..NZ When that happened plutonium reactor would be dismantled Provide heavy fuel oil to compensate for energy forgone Lift sanctions, move towards normalisation of relations. Formal security assurances

Postscript on Agreed Framework: 

Postscript on Agreed Framework US negotiator Bob Gallucci and team just published defense of AF Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis by Joel S. Wit, Daniel B. Poneman, and Robert L. Gallucci Brookings Institution Press, 2004 Publishers blurb: https://www.brookings.edu/press/books/goingcritical.htm Extract: http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/0424A_Wit.html Review: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/20/books/20ALLI.html

Clinton to Bush: 

Clinton to Bush Clinton lost control of Congress and much of AF was not implemented But AF still in existence, relations did move ahead under pressure from Kim Dae-jong Bush administration did not like AF ABC policy Anything But Clinton

Axis of Evil to HEU: 

Axis of Evil to HEU Axis of Evil speech, Nuclear Posture Review ratcheted pressure Oct 2002 – Kelly visits Pyongyang Two allegations NK has an enriched uranium programme Indirect violation of AF Claims NK admits this NK has denied both Tends not to be reported in media

Collapse of AF: 

Collapse of AF US suspends HFU, thus abrogating only part of AF which had life NK withdraws from NPT Legal right to do that under clause X Reactivates reactor When US refuses to negotiate NK declares it will build a nuclear deterrent

Six Party talks: 

Six Party talks China, SK, Russia and Japan all want a negotiated end to crisis China for one does not believe HEU allegations http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&contentId=A60332-2004Jan6&notFound=true So central ostensible reason for abandoning AF may not be true NK wants Security assurances Lifting of sanctions, removal from Terrorism List, and end to US constraining SK and JP developing relations with SK Oil, LWR… Basically a variant of the AF

US position: 

US position complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantling of nuclear programmes (CVID) Before it will allow SK and JP to provide energy assistance Slight cosmetic softening of position under pressure from Other Five parties Criticisms within US political system Pritchard to Kerry NK response cautious but not dismissive http://210.145.168.243/pk/206th_issue/2004062605.htm

Unbridgeable differences?: 

Unbridgeable differences? Next round due in September but probably no substantial movement until after election However many factors Kerry, Iraq, NK progress on weaponisation… World opinion Important to raise awareness of issues, lies, uncertainties, and confusions Bridge building Raise NK knowledge and understanding of outside world Our knowledge and understanding of NK

NZ-DPRK Society: 

NZ-DPRK Society Since mid –seventies Liaison with NZ and NK governments Aid bridge building Pyongyang Report Website at http://www.vuw.ac.nz/~caplabtb/dprk/ Delegations and visits

Delegations and visits: 

Delegations and visits July 2001 – Hon Graham Kelly April 2004 Don Borrie Pyongyang Arts Festival Photos May 2004 Rev Stuart Vogel Coordinator, Aid and Cooperation

Building Bridges: 

Building Bridges Impact of international NGOs Hazel Smith: Overcoming Humanitarian dilemmas in the DPRK http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/sr90.html Our videoed meetings with World Food Programme, Red Cross Korean Christian Federation

NZ Engagement, current and potential: 

NZ Engagement, current and potential Emerging partnership between NGOs and Government February 2004 $370,000 to World Fod Programme http://www.beehive.govt.nz/ViewDocument.cfm?DocumentID=18922 April 2004 - $540,000 to UNICEF http://www.beehive.govt.nz/ViewDocument.cfm?DocumentID=19516 June 2004 – Amb David Taylor allocates his Head of Mission Fund, $15,000 to Concern Irish NGO headed by NZer Rose Dew

Interconnections: 

Interconnections Political, developmental and aid, and personal relationships can be – must be – enhanced for the mutual beneift of DPRK and NZ Also benefits the people of both Koreas, and the region

North Korea in April: 

North Korea in April Photos Economic reform and marketization But some other things as well

Slide62: 

Big billboards for the ‘whistle car’, a joint venture product are noticeable in many parts of Pyongyang. People now have dreams and aspirations. A mobile telephone or a trip abroad top the wish list. Although, many people are facing even bigger difficulties in coping with the changes as the cradle-to-grave security fades away. Kathi Zellweger, Caritas