2G, 3G and Beyond : 2G, 3G and Beyond An Understanding of Technology and Services
Agenda : Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview
2G, 3G and Beyond
Market Segmentation
Network Convergence
Market Trends
Services
2G: Technology Summary : 2G: Technology Summary TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access
Standardized in 1990 as IS-54
Provides 3-6 times capacity increase over AMPS (1G)
Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels)
Introduced authentication and encryption for security
GSM: Global System of Mobile communications
Standardized in 1992, based on TMDA technology
Improved battery life over TDMA
GPRS peak data rates of 140 kbps; EDGE data rates of 180kbps
CDMA: Code Division Multiple Access
Standardized in 1993 as IS-95
Provides 1.5-2 times capacity increase over TDMA
Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels)
2G: Winners & Losers : 2G: Winners & Losers TDMA
Marginally better capacity than GSM, marginally worse battery life
No evolution path beyond 2G – DEAD END !!
CDMA
Lots of hype on capacity, delivered on upwards of 2x capacity improvement over TDMA/GSM
Clear evolution to 3G
GSM
International Roaming and Compatibility
Clear evolution to 3G
Defacto Global Standard
GSM: A Success Story Growth in China : GSM: A Success Story Growth in China GSM subscribers in Asia Pacific reached 650 million in March 2006
(521 million March 2005 = 24.7% annual growth) GSM growth exceeded CDMA by 11x from March 05 to March 06 China
GSM grew over 54 mil subs in past 12 months = over 1 million/week
Cdma added under 5 mil subs in the same period
GSM: A Success Story Growth in India : GSM: A Success Story Growth in India India reached almost 64 million GSM subscribers at 31.03.06
GSM has 77.5% market share
GSM additions = 22.7 million in 12 months = over 55% growth
Cdma added 8 million in same period
GSM: A Success Story Growth in Rest of World : GSM: A Success Story Growth in Rest of World Europe:
Eastern Europe 289 million (48.9% annual growth)
Western Europe 426 million (8.1% annual growth) Africa:
146 million (62.6% annual growth) Middle East:
51.4 million (63.5% annual growth) Americas:
Canada and USA 85 million (35% annual growth)
Latin America and the Caribbean 144 million (92.6% annual growth)
Evolution to 3G Drivers: Capacity, Data Speed, Cost : Evolution to 3G Drivers: Capacity, Data Speed, Cost 2G First Step into 3G 90% 10% 3G phase 1 Evolved 3G 3GPP Core
Network Expected market share
3G: Technology Summary : 3G: Technology Summary Technology Convergence on Wideband-CDMA
CDMA 2000
Successor to CDMA IS-95, 4 core standards – 1xRTT, 1x EV-DO, 1x EV-DV, 3xRTT
1xRTT provides 2x voice capacity increase over IS-95 and a peak data rate of 144kbps
EV-DO Rev A provide peak data rates of 3.1 downlink / 1.8 uplink (800kbps typical)
UMTS
Successor to GSM, based on W-CDMA
Peak data rates of up to 1920kbps (384kbps typical)
HSDPA peak data rate of up to 14.4Mbps
3G: Winners & Losers ?? : 3G: Winners & Losers ?? UMTS
Huge delays (terminals availability)
Exorbitant license fees
Confusing pricing strategies & lack of compelling services
Clear evolution path
HSxPA (Peak Data Rates), LTE (Network Simplification)
CDMA2000
Early adoption (Korea)
Compelling peak data rates (EV-DO)
Unclear evolution path
3xRTT? WIMAX?
UMTS Growth Devices Penetration : UMTS Growth Devices Penetration Source: GSA survey published February 28, 2006 315 Devices
38 Suppliers
UMTS Growth Subscriber Penetration : UMTS Growth Subscriber Penetration Over 55 million WCDMA subs at 31 March 06
Approaching 140% yearly growth
Over 3 million adds monthly in last 6 months
WCDMA gained over 10% share of mobile growth in Asia Q1 06
WCDMA gained 1 in 3 new connections in Western Europe in Q1 06
Global Subscriber Counts : Global Subscriber Counts 0 0.5 Bn 1 Bn 1.5 Bn 2 Bn 2.5 Bn 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CDMA GSM PHS W-CDMA Note:
GSM Emerging Market Handset (EMH) initiative = 80% of Global Population with Wireless Service by 2010, based on sub $30 handsets
17 countries targeted = 1.8 Bn people ; not included in current sub counts
…and Beyond : …and Beyond Technology Convergence on OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access)
WIMAX
Standardized by IEEE 802.16, evolution of 802.11 (Wi-Fi)
Improved bandwidth, encryption and coverage over WiFi
Theoretical peak data rates of 70Mbps (practical peak ~2Mbps)
Improved QoS better enables applications such as VoIP or IPTV
Ideal application is for “last mile” connectivity to the home or business
Intel plans to embed WiMAX chips as part of ‘Intel Inside’
L3GTE/HSOPA
Early standardization work starts in 3GPP R8
Improved bandwidth, latency over UMTS/HSxPA
Radio technology based on MIMO-OFDM, peak data rates of up to 70Mbps
Network simplification
Wireless Access Evolution : Wireless Access Evolution Broadband
New Services
Efficiency Broadband Subscribers Voice Coverage
Mobility Voice Quality
Portability
Capacity Broadband
Network Simplification
Cost of Ownership
Agenda : Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview
2G, 3G and Beyond
Market Segmentation
Network Convergence
Market Trends
Services
Market Segments : Market Segments Cordless WiMAX 16e
HSDPA to OFDM
EV-DO to OFDM WiFi Local Fixed Voice Broadband Cellular WiMAX 16d
DSL / Cable POTS 802.11a/b/g
802.11n MIMO
Mesh Dialup 2.5G Mobile
Operator Objectives : Operator Objectives Voice+
Growth to Wireless Data+ Growth to Broadband Network Goals are Similar
Differentiation on Access & Business goals Mobile Operators
Subscriber growth
Wireless Data / 3G
Wireline Substitution
Fixed Operators
Broadband Line Growth
Revenue Protection
Cable, Satellite, ISP
Network Leverage
New Market Penetration
Video Triple Play Drivers
Wireless Broadband Core IP
Customer Lifestyle Search for Growth
Network Convergence : Network Convergence Reliable, Scalable, Secure
Network Convergence - IMS : Service Control Presence / GLMS Applications R4
CDMA PSTN Media Resources TDM & Packet Interworking Peer IP Network Access Network IP/MPLS Core Multimedia
Services Messaging
Services Web / WAP
Services Streaming
Services Audio/
Video WLAN ASN WiMAX GPRS
UMTS ASG HSOPA
OFDM/MIMO BRAS Network Convergence - IMS
Network Enablers : Network Enablers Charging
Ability to provide differentiated charging based flexible usage models, including time / data / volume
Quality of Service
Ability to provide differentiated service, e.g. Olympic levels: gold / silver / bronze
Policy Management
Ability to make personalized policy decisions based on subscriber, access and content
Security
Ability to provide secure access and “clean pipes” for content delivery
Agenda : Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview
2G, 3G and Beyond
Market Segmentation
Network Convergence
Market Trends
Services
Market Trends : Market Trends Media Convergence – Multiple Play
Dual Play: High-Speed Internet & Fixed Line
Triple Play: Dual Play + TV
Quadruple Play: Triple Play + Wireless
Challenge: Consolidated Invoice and Price Points
Fixed Mobile Convergence
Dual Mode connectivity
Cellular / Cordless (DECT, ADSL/Bluetooth)
WLAN / WWAN
Challenge: Technology standardization
MVNO – Mobile Virtual Network Operator
Wireless Service Reseller, wholesales access from wireless operators
Discount & Lifestyle MVNO’s
Segment, Product, Utilization Driven
Challenge: Market Saturation & Service Differentiation
Market Trends (continued) : Market Trends (continued) M-Commerce – Electronic Commerce using Mobile Phones
Leverage ubiquity of mobile phones to make transactions
Current payment methods: premium calling #’s, phone bill invoice, credit card
Strong interest in key industries: banking, sports & entertainment, travel, retail
Challenge: Security, Terminal Capabilities, Access Speeds
Multimedia – use of several media types to convey information
Effective information delivery across many disciplines: art, education, telecommunications, medicine
IMS enables multimedia services for mobile users
VoIP
Challenge: User Interface, Form Factor, lack of “killer app”
Presence – Always on, always connected
Combine Mobility & Reachability
Effectively bring Popularity of IM to mobile phones (AOL, Yahoo!, MSN, Skype)
Opportunity for standardization & interworking based on SIP/SIMPLE
Challenge: Standardization & always on connectivity
Market Trends The next 5 years in North America : Market Trends The next 5 years in North America More substitution of mobile and wireless technologies for fixed lines
30% US homes will have only cellular or broadband access, driven by youth who see no value in fixed lines for telephony
Lower churn
Due to consolidation, better pricing and marketing plans, higher quality networks
More mobile e-mail
Driven by popularity, proliferation of smartphones, and ease of setup and use
Greater adoption of smartphones
Defined as phones that run open OS’s, e.g. Microsoft, driven by business users,
Increased mobile advertising
Mobile advertising needed for added revenue generation; successful use will require balancing intrusive nature of unsolicited ads & value to the end user
Market Trends The next 5 years in North America : Market Trends The next 5 years in North America The growth of mobile entertainment
Handsets are increasing designed for entertainment with integrated cameras, MP3 players – trend will be to partner with content providers to drive usage (Google, Yahoo!, Apple)
Greater market penetration by mobile technologies and slower connection growth
North America will become increasingly saturated – will drive price competition, flexible and targeted tariff plans, and differentiation
More converged services based on the IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)
Will become common network infrastructure, will enable fixed and mobile service bundles
The rise of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs)
Will add value by offering differentiation
More mobile data applications for enterprises
Increased email, as well as presence and location functions, will drive up data usage
Services : Services Prepaid
Segment driven, will increase with MVNO’s
SMS
Remains extremely popular, key driver is use of short-code numbers
Push-To-Talk
Segment driven, slow take amongst general consumers
MMS
Slow adoption due to user interface, will increase due to interoperability improvements and integration with m-commerce
Downloads
Ring-tones is #1 revenue generator but slowing, Gaming is on the rise
Video
Video clip services are emerging, pricing is typically subscription-based
Music
Music stores increasingly common, need competitive pricing, will leverage MP3 integration
Radio
Satellite radio offers resell XM and Sirius
Adult
CTIA recommendation for socially responsible access to content; penetration expected to start in 2008