nrc scenarios

Future Scenarios: : Future Scenarios: The Art of Storytelling


Definitions : Definitions Scenario-based planning is a creative, forward-looking, open-ended search for patterns that might emerge in an industry At its best, it discovers entirely new patterns that no one else has recognized Research + data analysis + intuition + thinking + creativity = scenario planning Scenarios are learning tools


Definitions : Definitions They are stories that help suspend disbelief in possible futures Scenarios are a powerful tool for forcing us to abandon previously fixed ideas Scenario planning is the application of visual dialogue


Early Uses : Early Uses Military Think Tanks To Influence Public Attitudes


Pierre Wack: The Mystic : Pierre Wack: The Mystic 'To see,' Wack said, 'means not merely being aware of an element of your environment, but seeing through it, with full consciousness.'


Two Schools of Thought : Two Schools of Thought Risk-Reduction School Revolutionary School


Forms of Strategic Modeling : Forms of Strategic Modeling Trend-impact analysis Cross-impact analysis Decision scenarios


Decision Scenarios : Decision Scenarios The rules for success with decision scenarios are few but they are unforgiving if ignored. First, the scenarios must be relevant. Second, the development of the scenarios must be a team effort between operating managers and planners.


What Makes A Scenario Planner? : What Makes A Scenario Planner? Researcher extraordinary Flexible perspective A lover of constant education Need to be aware of the fringes Intuitive A collaborator Inspirator Committed and passionate about the work


The Process of Creating : The Process of Creating Identify the focal issue or decision Identify the driving forces Predetermined elements Critical uncertainties Writing the scenarios


The Process of Creating : The Process of Creating Interviews Feedback Workshops


How Many Scenarios? : How Many Scenarios? It all depends on the company you choose to use, but make make you have a base case. Some use two because they believe the use of two scenarios is a tactic to make them easier to implement. GBN tends to use four scenarios. NCRI has used as many as eight business models but they are paired sets of alternatives.


Communicating Scenarios : Communicating Scenarios Opening remarks should describe the uses of scenarios, or offer a success story Clearly present the question under investigation Use vivid names and glossy booklets Interesting story lines, names, and a memorable timeline A process by which the scenarios can be used by the organization to decide what to do next


Why Invest Time In Scenarios? : Why Invest Time In Scenarios? Scenario planning can help overcome the tendency to interpret new information in terms of old beliefs Scenario-based planning allows managers to deliberately try to break the rules of their business Scenarios are a way of practicing under a variety of circumstances with minimal risk


Why Invest Time In Scenarios? : Why Invest Time In Scenarios? Decisions are rooted in mental models, but our mental modes are not always good. Scenarios can help by legitimizing a dialogue, challenging convention wisdom, initiating wide-spread discussion, and creating the possibility of genuine transformation. Managers must make lots of decisions, and some are tougher than others.


Why Invest Time In Scenarios? : Why Invest Time In Scenarios? Business success often depends upon sensing what is coming in the future earlier than the competition. Scenarios increase this capability. Scenarios allow management to get beyond the question of 'What future is most probable?' to more powerful questions like 'What future do we fear the most?' and 'What future do we want to create?'


Key Management Benefits : Key Management Benefits Anticipation and leveraging of change A more alert and competitive organization Stimulation of various mental modes; introduction to multi-future thinking Reduction of future risk Developing a consistent framework The development of strategy and the translation into action A wider and more realistic shared basis for decision making


Problems and Pitfalls : Problems and Pitfalls Lack of decision focus Lack of decision makers’ involvement and commitment Scenarios become the product of the exercise Scenarios are not ‘planning friendly’ Scenarios are difficult to use


Problems and Pitfalls : Problems and Pitfalls Wishful thinking and denial Lack of intuition on the part of the facilitators Ignoring basic driving forces and feedback loops Management feels best when decisions are data-based Decisions are rooted in mental models Problems can arise when members of the senior team are not able to share their mental models


How Can You Make Them Work? : How Can You Make Them Work? Somehow reaching the part of the managers’ minds that harbor their perceptions; good scenarios can help change mental models. Develop a receptive culture Target the opportunity Develop a strong communications program


How Can You Make Them Work? : How Can You Make Them Work? Create explicit links to the rest of the strategic management process Fit the scenario to the task The scenarios must be internally consistent Once you have the scenarios, ask yourself what the scenarios really mean for the company


How Can You Make Them Work? : How Can You Make Them Work? The scenario must resonate in some way with what the managers already know, giving them the ability to re-perceive the world. Make sure that observations from the real world are built into the process Make sure that everyone can recognize the truth in a scenario


Success Stories : Success Stories Telephone Industry Investment Decisions


Do Scenarios Have the Power to Change the World? : Do Scenarios Have the Power to Change the World? The South African Success Story


Canadian Scenarios : Canadian Scenarios Starship Titanic HMS Bounty Windjammer


Precautions : Precautions Scenarios are complementary management tools Scenario planning is not a substitute to traditional or classical approaches to change management The emphasis for planners must move from forecasting to foresight Many types of scenario facilitation are very expensive


Scenarios Connection to KM : Scenarios Connection to KM Future scenarios are stories aimed at helping people break past their mental blocks and consider unthinkable futures. That is also what a comprehensive knowledge management system will do for you. 'We each design our own future behaviour, and the behaviour of our organizations in ways that we are not fully aware of. That is why it is so important not just to recognize our mental models but to actively try to change them.' -- A. Kleiner


Top Scenario Players : Top Scenario Players Battelle’s Basics Computer-Driven Simulations The European Commission Northeast Consulting Resources, Inc. NCRI Schriefer Management The French School The Futures Group Global Business Network The Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies SRI Centre for Generative Leadership


Commentary : Commentary Ultimately the power of scenario planning is that it can prepare us; help us to understand the uncertainties that lie before us, and what they mean; help us to rehearse our responses to those possible futures; and help us to spot them as they begin to unfold.


Acknowledgements : Acknowledgements Peter Schwartz Peter Feltham Howard Rheingold Art Kleiner David Mason Norman E. Duncan Lucia L. Quinn Gill Ringland Audrey Schriefer Lawrence Wilkinson Kees van der Heijden Adam Kahane Pierre Wack Herman Kahn Steven Rosell