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VU Enterprise Architecture Enterprise Architecture Series

The 2020 Global Landscape: 

The 2020 Global Landscape Globalization is largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized World economy substantially larger, 80% larger than it was in 2000 Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middleweights China’s GNP will exceed that of individual Western economic powers (except USA). India’s GNP will have overtaken or be on the threshold of overtaking European economies. Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies. US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily.

Expansion of the Global Economy: 

Expansion of the Global Economy Shell Global Scenarios to 2025, using the Trilemma model, estimates the average economic growth rate to vary between 2.6 and 3.8%. Deutsche Bank Research predicts that in 2020, using the Formel-G model, the US and China will still be the two largest economies in the world (in PPP) followed by India. The UN estimates the world population to grow to almost 8 billion by 2025 under medium variant scenario.

Growth in Income per Capita: 

Growth in Income per Capita Economic expansion, particularly in China and India, will increase the income per capita of these nations as well as other emerging countries like Brazil and Indonesia. The average GDP per capita of some of these nations will be 50% higher than it was in 2000. In 1985 average income in China was $280; in 2005 the average income is $1,290. In India, the GNI per capital increased from $450 in 2000 to $620 in 2004.

Increase in Income, Decline in PC Prices: 

Increase in Income, Decline in PC Prices As income levels rise, people in China and India have more disposable income to afford new goods and services. Access to technology is not an exception. The market continues to be price-driven for PCs and mobile PCs. There was not a significant system price decline sequentially; however, with high-volume sale shifting toward lower prices, the average selling price declined. The primary PC market drivers continue to be price and mobility. Gartner Research “PC Market Results Worldwide”: Asia/Pacific PC shipments grew 31.4% in 3Q 2005 compared with one year ago, this growth is attributed to strong demand from the Northern Asian countries, namely, China, Taiwan, South Korea and Hong Kong. The continuing strength of the Indian PC market helped boost the 3Q 2005 results well beyond 2Q 2005 results. Mobile PC shipments continued to grow rapidly, but they still make up less than 11% of India's overall PC market.

Global Growth in Computer Hardware – An Overview: 

Global Growth in Computer Hardware – An Overview The global computer hardware market generated total revenues of $338.5 billion in 2004, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4% for the five-year period spanning 2000-2004. Going forward, the global computer hardware market is forecast to grow at a faster rate than in previous years, with a CAGR of 5.5% for the five-year 2004-2009 period expected to drive the market to a value of $442.6 billion by the end of 2009. The personal computer hardware sector was worth $146.8 billion, which represented a 43.4% share of the market's value. Sales of other (non-PC) hardware form the leading segment in the market, generating total revenues of $191.7 billion in 2004, equivalent to 56.6% of the overall market value.

Growth of the Computer Hardware Market in China: 

Growth of the Computer Hardware Market in China The Chinese computer hardware market experienced fluctuating growth rates during the past five years, with a high of 21% in 2002 and a low of 9.5% in 2003. Sales non-PC computer hardware form the leading segment in the market, generating total revenues of $15 billion in 2004, equivalent to 54.4% of the overall market value. The PC sector was worth $12.6 billion, which represented a 45.6% share of the market's value. The Chinese computer hardware market is forecast to grow with an anticipated CAGR of 12.1% for the five-year 2004-2009 period driving the market to a value of $48.8 billion by the end of 2009. A primary driver of growth in this market is demand in the home and the SME market, as well as for mobile PCs.

Growth of the Computer Hardware Market in India: 

Growth of the Computer Hardware Market in India The Indian computer hardware market generated total revenues of $5.3 billion in 2004, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.6% for the five-year period spanning 2000-2004. Sales of non-PC hardware form the leading segment in the market, generating total revenues of $2.8 billion in 2004, equivalent to 52.6% of the overall market value. In comparison, the PC hardware sector was worth $2.6 billion. The Indian computer hardware market is forecast to grow at an anticipated CAGR of 10.7% for the five-year 2004-2009 period driving the market to a value of $8.8 billion by the end of 2009. High growth rates can be attributed to the fact that a large middle class has emerged in India, and there has been rapid growth in the IT industry.

Asia a New Frontier for PC Vendors: 

Asia a New Frontier for PC Vendors All emerging PC markets remain under-penetrated; therefore, Gartner Research expects them to continue to grow strongly during the next five years. Improvement in the economic and political situations, higher gross domestic product (GDP) and average wages, and more modern infrastructure will generally lead to stronger positions of international PC vendors. The combined market share of international PC vendors in all emerging markets will increase from 38 percent in 2004 to more than 45 percent by 2009 (0.8 probability).

Global Growth in Internet Usage – An Overview: 

Global Growth in Internet Usage – An Overview Global Internet usage has grown 182% from 2000 to 2005. Much of the growth is coming from Asia, Latin America and parts of Europe. The bulk of this growth comes from Asia and Latin America.

Comparison: Growth in Internet Usage: 

Comparison: Growth in Internet Usage Notice the low penetration in Chinese and Indian markets. The sheer size of their population their Usage Growth rates may help explain and signal the significance of these under-penetrated markets and their potential for global influence. Through 2010, Gartner expects accelerated adoption of the Internet in developing countries which will positively affect their overall economies.

The 2nd Internet Revolution: 

The 2nd Internet Revolution The second Internet revolution will not be restricted to North America. In certain key areas, such as high-capacity broadband (East Asia), and mobile wireless (Europe and Asia), international markets are well ahead of North America in access, backbone and content availability.

Internet Usage Statistics in the USA: 

Internet Usage Statistics in the USA As of January 2006, there are over 200 million Internet users in USA (69% penetration). The U.S. broadband market is expected to reach an estimated 56.9 million subscribers by 2008, growing from 32.5 million subscribers in 2004. President Bush has set a goal of broadband access for all Americans by 2007 to boost competitiveness with other nations and create new business opportunities, telemedicine, and distant learning.

Increase on IT Reliance and High Expectations: 

Increase on IT Reliance and High Expectations As IT infrastructure and services offered develop, consumer adoption and dependence on technologies is growing and creating demand for: Desktops and Laptops Broadband and Wireless Access Handhelds and PDA’s Portable Music Players Mobile Phone Internet, Email, IM, Blogging Telecommunications and VOIP Online data storage Digital Music Online Banking, Gaming, Shopping, Etc…

US Internet Usage Statistics: 

US Internet Usage Statistics As there’s a generational shift over the years, users’ expectations and usage patterns are expected to increase. As technological advancements occur, we expect to see a proliferation of emerging new products and services that may increase user dependability, online activities, and expectations. Generational Shift Product and Service Proliferation

Hype Cycle Comparisons 1995 and 2005: 

Hype Cycle Comparisons 1995 and 2005 First Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 1995

Hype Cycle Comparisons 1995 and 2005: 

Hype Cycle Comparisons 1995 and 2005 First Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2005

Emerging Technology Radar Screen: 

Emerging Technology Radar Screen Shown is a cross-industry assessment of key emerging technologies and the likely impact of each on the business processes.

QUESTIONS?: 

QUESTIONS?

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