Russia Europe Energy

CEELBAS CONFERENCE19-20 April 2007: 

CEELBAS CONFERENCE 19-20 April 2007 RUSSIA, EUROPE, ENERGY… PHILIP HANSON (CREES & CHATHAM HOUSE)

ISSUES FOR EU: 

ISSUES FOR EU RUSSIA IS A NEIGHBOUR BUT NOT A CANDIDATE FOR MEMBERSHIP. FORMAL FRAMEWORK: PCA, SUMMITS, ROAD-MAPS…FREE TRADE AREA? FRICTIONS: ENERGY SUPPLY, VISAS, KALININGRAD, REGULATORY CONVERGENCE, RF  EU?

ENERGY ISSUES: CONTEXT: 

ENERGY ISSUES: CONTEXT RUSSIAN SENSITIVITIES MUTUAL ASSURED ENERGY DEPENDENCE? RUSSIA STUCK WITH EU: in 2006 53% RF TRADE WAS WITH EU25 (CIS 15%, US 4%). INVESTMENT IN & OUT SIMILAR.

RUSSIAN ATTITUDES TO EU: 

RUSSIAN ATTITUDES TO EU LEVADA CENTER POLL, 2/07, %% DO YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF EUROPEAN? NO 71 IS EUROPE A THREAT TO RUSSIA? YES 45 NO 37 NEXT: SOME ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS

MUTUAL ENERGY DEPENDENCE: OIL & GAS IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY: 

MUTUAL ENERGY DEPENDENCE: OIL & GAS IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY

% OF RF OIL OUTPUT FROM STATE-OWNED COMPANIES, 2004-2007F (end-year estimates): 

% OF RF OIL OUTPUT FROM STATE-OWNED COMPANIES, 2004-2007F (end-year estimates)

EXPORTS OUTSIDE CIS = 44% RUSSIAN OIL OUTPUT (2006): 

EXPORTS OUTSIDE CIS = 44% RUSSIAN OIL OUTPUT (2006)

ABOUT 29% OF EU OIL CONSUMPTION IS OIL FROM RUSSIA (2005): 

ABOUT 29% OF EU OIL CONSUMPTION IS OIL FROM RUSSIA (2005)

NON-CIS EXPORTS = c. 24% RUSSIAN GAS OUTPUT: 

NON-CIS EXPORTS = c. 24% RUSSIAN GAS OUTPUT

ABOUT 30% OF EU GAS CONSUMPTION IS GAS FROM RUSSIA: 

ABOUT 30% OF EU GAS CONSUMPTION IS GAS FROM RUSSIA

AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND: EU-RF ENERGY ISSUES: 

AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND: EU-RF ENERGY ISSUES IS RUSSIA A RELIABLE SUPPLIER? JUST A SPOT OF BOTHER WITH INTRA-CIS PRICES? CAN/SHOULD EU PROVIDE SECURITY OF DEMAND? IS RUSSIA CAPABLE OF SUPPLYING MUCH MORE (esp. gas to 2010)? ENERGY CHARTER AND RECIPROCITY. A JOINED-UP EU? ACROSS COUNTRIES? ACROSS DIRECTORATES: TRADE, COMPETITION?