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Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript Determinism, Ideology and Folly in World Hunger: Determinism, Ideology and Folly in World Hunger Gidon Eshel Dept. of the Geophysical Sciences Univ. of Chicago Chicago, IL 60637 Tel: (773) 702-0440 Email: geshel@uchicago.edu Web: http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~gidon World Hunger: Causes and Consequences Midwest Faculty Seminar, Univ. of Chicago, April 29-May 1, 2004 Plan:: is hunger inevitable? if not, how? if not, why not? Plan: World Population is: about 6.4 billion people. At 2300 kcal a day, this means we need about 5.4 x 1015 kcal/year globally. World Population is Slide4: Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations , FAOSTAT Statistical Database (FAO, Rome, 1997) mean, 1997: 2.7 T/hectare or 0.27 kg/m2 Slide5: at roughly 4 kcal per gr, to feed everybody we need: or 5 x 106 km2 every year. Allowing for an efficiency of 50%, we get about 107 km2 per year. Since the Earth’s arable land surface area is about1,2,31.4 x 107 km2, we have more than enough land to feed everybody, with plenty to spare! 1: http://www.rockford-india.com/irrigation-arableland.htm 2: http://www.cnie.org/pop/conserving/landuse.htm 3: it in fact rises, at about 3 x 105 km2 (2.6 Pennsylvanias) per decade!! are people hungry?: are people hungry? in absolute numbers, sadly, they are are people hungry? : are people hungry? Source: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO 1998 yes, but as a fraction of the total the rates are declining Slide8: undernou-rished, % of population 1990-92 1969-71 0 25 50 75 75 50 25 0 Source: The UN Food and Agri- -culture Organization, FAO 1997 The UN’s FAO also states that1: '... As a world average, food availability for direct human consumption (on a per-person basis) grew 19 percent to 2720 Kcal/day between 1960 and 1994/96.' The UN’s FAO also states that1 1: FAO Symposium on Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options in the Forthcoming WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries, Geneva, 23-24 September 1999, Paper 1: Salient trends in world agricultural production, demand, trade and food security meanwhile, as worldwide hunger rates drop, : meanwhile, as worldwide hunger rates drop, a new, perhaps just as devastating, and most likely harder to fix, problem rapidly arise... age From: Physical Activity and Older Americans: Benefits and Strategies. June 2002. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the Centers for Disease Control. http://www.ahrq.gov/ppip/activity.htm Slide11: Historic rates of people with BMIandgt;30 kg m-2 in various countries. (Source: Kopelman, P. G., Obesity as a medical problem. Nature, 404, April 6 2000, pp. 635-643) Slide12: US prevalence of BMIandgt;30 in ‘91, ‘95 and 2000. Sources: Mokdad, A. H., JAMA, 282(16), October 27, 1999, 1519-1522 Mokdad, A. H., JAMA, 286(10), September 12, 2001, 1195-1200 no data andlt;10% 10%-14% 15%-19% andgt;20% Slide13: Global data. Sources: Mokdad, A. H., JAMA, 282(16), October 27, 1999, 1519-1522 Mokdad, A. H., JAMA, 286(10), September 12, 2001, 1195-1200 Slide14: the problem with obesity 1: the problem with obesity 1 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Promoting Active Lifestyles Among Older Adults. National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. Nutrition and Physical Activity. the problem with obesity 2: the problem with obesity 2 Source: Thompson, D. and A. M. Wolf, 2001: The medical-care cost burden of obesity.Obesity Reviews 2 (3), 189-197. Australia, 1994, 2% Canada, 1999, 2.4% France, 1995, 2% N. Zealand 1997, 2.5% Portugal 2000, 3.5% USA, 1986, 5.5% USA, 1998, 5.7% USA, 1999, 7% Percentage of national health expenditures attributable to obesity, by country. the problem with obesity 3: the problem with obesity 3 '... Obesity is associated with a 36 percent increase in inpatient and outpatient spending and a 77 percent increase in medications, compared with a 21 percent increase in inpatient and outpatient spending and a 28 percent increase in medications for current smokers.' Source: Strum, R., 2002: The effects of obesity, smoking, and drinking on medical problems and costs. Health Affairs, 21(2), 245-253 and one more: and one more years of follow-up $0 $25,000 BMIandgt;30 25andlt;BMIandlt;30 20andlt;BMIandlt;25 8 9 7 6 from Thompson, D., et al., 2001: Body Mass Index and Future Healthcare Costs: A Retrospective Cohort Study. Obesity Res., 9, 210-218. so the picture is: so the picture is schematically something like time proportion of the whole global population too much too little according to G. Gardner and B. Halwei, Worldwatch paper 150: Overfed and Underfed, March 2000, the crossover occured in 2000, with ~1.1 billion apiece 2000 the amazing thing is: the amazing thing is that in fact, too much (obesity) does not necessarily mean abundance! '... Malnutrition and obesity coexist in the same settings ...' Source: Dr. Manuel Pena, the Pan American Health rganization, 'Obesity and Poverty: A New Public Health Challenge.' what causes the shift toward obesity?: what causes the shift toward obesity? of the multitude of causes, I subjectively find particularly important: urbanization and other social trends the structure of agriculture defective distribution system, warped inputs into it cause 1: people don’t move enough: Source: Cordain, L. et al., 1998: Physical activity, energy expenditure and fitness: An evolutionary perspective. Int. J. Sports Med., 19(5), 328-335. cause 1: people don’t move enough cause 2: the structure of world agricultural production: cause 2: the structure of world agricultural production the number of US farms drop: the number of US farms drop while their size increases: while their size increases 4-firm concentration ratio From: Heller and Keoleian, Life cycle- -based sustainability indicators for assessment of the US food system. Univ. of Michigan Center for Sustainable Systems Report No. CSS00-04, Dec. 6 2000 e.g., takeMinnesota: e.g., take Minnesota milk production by herd size From: Hammond, J. W., Univ. of Minnesota, Minn. Ag. Econ. News- letter, No. 697, summer 1999 profit: only 3.5%!!: profit: only 3.5%!! Source: USDA Food Review, 2000, 23(3), 27-30. or, worse yet: or, worse yet From: Food Marketing Institute, Annual Financial Review 2002-2003, available online at http://www.fmi.org/ a penny a buck!! as a result, competition is fierce: as a result, competition is fierce and food manufacturers are desperate...: and food manufacturers are desperate... From: Table 1, page 12, Nestle, M., Food Politics, Univ. of California Press, 2002 9 leading food manufacturers to convince people to buy their stuff : to convince people to buy their stuff food manufacturers must process as heavily as they possibly can, so as to 'add value'... 1998 data; from Nestle, M., Food Politics,Univ. of California Press also, they make stuff sweet, salty and fatty: also, they make stuff sweet, salty and fatty a huge issue is subsidies: a huge issue is subsidies Source: Environmental Working Group Farm Database Version 2.0 http://www.ewg.org/ US data Slide34: 2003 data. Source: National Corn Growers Association, http://www.iowafarmer.com/corncam/corn.html 54% animal feed 8% sweeteners Slide35: Source: http://www.biotech-info.net/ part of the reason burgers are so cheap part of the reasons Coke is so cheap also, because subsidy promotes large farms: also, because subsidy promotes large farms corn subsidy concentration Source: Environmental Working Group Farm Database Version 2.0 http://www.ewg.org/ subsidy received ‘95-’02: top 1%: $25 billion bottom 80%: $15 billion farm lobby is so damn powerful...: farm lobby is so damn powerful... So:: So: A policy that will fight obesity is also one consistent with fighting world hunger. Unfortunately, such a policy will be roughly the inverse of the policies now in effect in the US. As the New York Times (Editorial, April 13, 2004) puts it: ' ... Almost two-thirds of America's corporations paid no federal income taxes during the late 1990's, when corporate profits were soaring. Nine out of 10 companies paid less than the equivalent of 5 percent of their total income ... ' You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
world Hunger FunSchool Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINT Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 1970 Category: News & Reports.. License: All Rights Reserved Like it (2) Dislike it (0) Added: August 13, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... By: enirman1 (20 month(s) ago) a good preentation to learn abt the hunger this would be very much important to download Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript Determinism, Ideology and Folly in World Hunger: Determinism, Ideology and Folly in World Hunger Gidon Eshel Dept. of the Geophysical Sciences Univ. of Chicago Chicago, IL 60637 Tel: (773) 702-0440 Email: geshel@uchicago.edu Web: http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~gidon World Hunger: Causes and Consequences Midwest Faculty Seminar, Univ. of Chicago, April 29-May 1, 2004 Plan:: is hunger inevitable? if not, how? if not, why not? Plan: World Population is: about 6.4 billion people. At 2300 kcal a day, this means we need about 5.4 x 1015 kcal/year globally. World Population is Slide4: Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations , FAOSTAT Statistical Database (FAO, Rome, 1997) mean, 1997: 2.7 T/hectare or 0.27 kg/m2 Slide5: at roughly 4 kcal per gr, to feed everybody we need: or 5 x 106 km2 every year. Allowing for an efficiency of 50%, we get about 107 km2 per year. Since the Earth’s arable land surface area is about1,2,31.4 x 107 km2, we have more than enough land to feed everybody, with plenty to spare! 1: http://www.rockford-india.com/irrigation-arableland.htm 2: http://www.cnie.org/pop/conserving/landuse.htm 3: it in fact rises, at about 3 x 105 km2 (2.6 Pennsylvanias) per decade!! are people hungry?: are people hungry? in absolute numbers, sadly, they are are people hungry? : are people hungry? Source: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO 1998 yes, but as a fraction of the total the rates are declining Slide8: undernou-rished, % of population 1990-92 1969-71 0 25 50 75 75 50 25 0 Source: The UN Food and Agri- -culture Organization, FAO 1997 The UN’s FAO also states that1: '... As a world average, food availability for direct human consumption (on a per-person basis) grew 19 percent to 2720 Kcal/day between 1960 and 1994/96.' The UN’s FAO also states that1 1: FAO Symposium on Agriculture, Trade and Food Security: Issues and Options in the Forthcoming WTO Negotiations from the Perspective of Developing Countries, Geneva, 23-24 September 1999, Paper 1: Salient trends in world agricultural production, demand, trade and food security meanwhile, as worldwide hunger rates drop, : meanwhile, as worldwide hunger rates drop, a new, perhaps just as devastating, and most likely harder to fix, problem rapidly arise... age From: Physical Activity and Older Americans: Benefits and Strategies. June 2002. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the Centers for Disease Control. http://www.ahrq.gov/ppip/activity.htm Slide11: Historic rates of people with BMIandgt;30 kg m-2 in various countries. (Source: Kopelman, P. G., Obesity as a medical problem. Nature, 404, April 6 2000, pp. 635-643) Slide12: US prevalence of BMIandgt;30 in ‘91, ‘95 and 2000. Sources: Mokdad, A. H., JAMA, 282(16), October 27, 1999, 1519-1522 Mokdad, A. H., JAMA, 286(10), September 12, 2001, 1195-1200 no data andlt;10% 10%-14% 15%-19% andgt;20% Slide13: Global data. Sources: Mokdad, A. H., JAMA, 282(16), October 27, 1999, 1519-1522 Mokdad, A. H., JAMA, 286(10), September 12, 2001, 1195-1200 Slide14: the problem with obesity 1: the problem with obesity 1 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Promoting Active Lifestyles Among Older Adults. National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion. Nutrition and Physical Activity. the problem with obesity 2: the problem with obesity 2 Source: Thompson, D. and A. M. Wolf, 2001: The medical-care cost burden of obesity.Obesity Reviews 2 (3), 189-197. Australia, 1994, 2% Canada, 1999, 2.4% France, 1995, 2% N. Zealand 1997, 2.5% Portugal 2000, 3.5% USA, 1986, 5.5% USA, 1998, 5.7% USA, 1999, 7% Percentage of national health expenditures attributable to obesity, by country. the problem with obesity 3: the problem with obesity 3 '... Obesity is associated with a 36 percent increase in inpatient and outpatient spending and a 77 percent increase in medications, compared with a 21 percent increase in inpatient and outpatient spending and a 28 percent increase in medications for current smokers.' Source: Strum, R., 2002: The effects of obesity, smoking, and drinking on medical problems and costs. Health Affairs, 21(2), 245-253 and one more: and one more years of follow-up $0 $25,000 BMIandgt;30 25andlt;BMIandlt;30 20andlt;BMIandlt;25 8 9 7 6 from Thompson, D., et al., 2001: Body Mass Index and Future Healthcare Costs: A Retrospective Cohort Study. Obesity Res., 9, 210-218. so the picture is: so the picture is schematically something like time proportion of the whole global population too much too little according to G. Gardner and B. Halwei, Worldwatch paper 150: Overfed and Underfed, March 2000, the crossover occured in 2000, with ~1.1 billion apiece 2000 the amazing thing is: the amazing thing is that in fact, too much (obesity) does not necessarily mean abundance! '... Malnutrition and obesity coexist in the same settings ...' Source: Dr. Manuel Pena, the Pan American Health rganization, 'Obesity and Poverty: A New Public Health Challenge.' what causes the shift toward obesity?: what causes the shift toward obesity? of the multitude of causes, I subjectively find particularly important: urbanization and other social trends the structure of agriculture defective distribution system, warped inputs into it cause 1: people don’t move enough: Source: Cordain, L. et al., 1998: Physical activity, energy expenditure and fitness: An evolutionary perspective. Int. J. Sports Med., 19(5), 328-335. cause 1: people don’t move enough cause 2: the structure of world agricultural production: cause 2: the structure of world agricultural production the number of US farms drop: the number of US farms drop while their size increases: while their size increases 4-firm concentration ratio From: Heller and Keoleian, Life cycle- -based sustainability indicators for assessment of the US food system. Univ. of Michigan Center for Sustainable Systems Report No. CSS00-04, Dec. 6 2000 e.g., takeMinnesota: e.g., take Minnesota milk production by herd size From: Hammond, J. W., Univ. of Minnesota, Minn. Ag. Econ. News- letter, No. 697, summer 1999 profit: only 3.5%!!: profit: only 3.5%!! Source: USDA Food Review, 2000, 23(3), 27-30. or, worse yet: or, worse yet From: Food Marketing Institute, Annual Financial Review 2002-2003, available online at http://www.fmi.org/ a penny a buck!! as a result, competition is fierce: as a result, competition is fierce and food manufacturers are desperate...: and food manufacturers are desperate... From: Table 1, page 12, Nestle, M., Food Politics, Univ. of California Press, 2002 9 leading food manufacturers to convince people to buy their stuff : to convince people to buy their stuff food manufacturers must process as heavily as they possibly can, so as to 'add value'... 1998 data; from Nestle, M., Food Politics,Univ. of California Press also, they make stuff sweet, salty and fatty: also, they make stuff sweet, salty and fatty a huge issue is subsidies: a huge issue is subsidies Source: Environmental Working Group Farm Database Version 2.0 http://www.ewg.org/ US data Slide34: 2003 data. Source: National Corn Growers Association, http://www.iowafarmer.com/corncam/corn.html 54% animal feed 8% sweeteners Slide35: Source: http://www.biotech-info.net/ part of the reason burgers are so cheap part of the reasons Coke is so cheap also, because subsidy promotes large farms: also, because subsidy promotes large farms corn subsidy concentration Source: Environmental Working Group Farm Database Version 2.0 http://www.ewg.org/ subsidy received ‘95-’02: top 1%: $25 billion bottom 80%: $15 billion farm lobby is so damn powerful...: farm lobby is so damn powerful... So:: So: A policy that will fight obesity is also one consistent with fighting world hunger. Unfortunately, such a policy will be roughly the inverse of the policies now in effect in the US. As the New York Times (Editorial, April 13, 2004) puts it: ' ... Almost two-thirds of America's corporations paid no federal income taxes during the late 1990's, when corporate profits were soaring. Nine out of 10 companies paid less than the equivalent of 5 percent of their total income ... '