VIVATTUR2005

Slide1 : International and European Tourism: Recent trends and outlook by Luigi Cabrini, WTO Regional Representative for Europe VIVATTUR 2005 3-5 March 2005 - Vilnius, Lithuania World Tourism Organization (WTO) www.world-tourism.org


Slide2 : 2004, best growth in 20 years 760 million international tourist arrivals = +10% biggest increase since 1984 + 69 million arrivals as compared to 2003 Source: World Tourism Organization


Evolution of International Tourism 2004 : Evolution of International Tourism 2004 Source: World Tourism Organization Projection based on monthly data of the WTO World Tourism Barometer 760 million international tourist arrivals in 2004 + 69 million arrivals as compared to 2003 (+10%) + 57 million as compared to 2002 (+8%) Best ever results in all months


Evolution of International Tourism, 2003-2004 : Evolution of International Tourism, 2003-2004 Source: World Tourism Organization Projection based on monthly data of WTO World Tourism Barometer 2003 2004


World Tourism- an excellent 2004 : World Tourism- an excellent 2004 Except Americas, all other regions with results above the 2000 level; strong rebound in Asia and the Pacific over depressed 2003 figures, but still with an increase of 17% over 2002 values; return of the Americas to the positive track after 3 depressed years due to the recovery in North America; traffic distribution influenced by exchange rate factor; same growth trend expected in tourism receipts


Slide6 : International Tourism 2004, finally all regions are positive Source: World Tourism Organization


Slide7 : Where have the new arrivals gone to? Source: World Tourism Organization Worldwide 69 million new arrivals


World Tourism- an excellent 2004 : World Tourism- an excellent 2004 Americas: finally positive after 3 years on the negative side; positive results in all subregions; the so-long expected growth in the North materialize; Central and South America with double-digit growth; Asia and the Pacific: full recovery from the losses of SARS; extraordinary rebound in North-East and South-East Asia (China, Rep. of Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, etc);continuous good performance of tourism in South Asia (India, Sri Lanka)


World Tourism- an excellent 2004 : World Tourism- an excellent 2004 Africa: positive performance of North Africa and slowdown in the growth rate of sub-Saharan Africa on the impact of a stronger rand Middle East: continuous expansion based mainly in intra-regional tourism; the region takes the position of Africa as the 4th most visited destination worldwide Europe: region which grew the least but positive the third year in a row and from a strong baseline; strong performance of Central and Eastern Europe and Northern Europe; lower than average growth in Western and Southern / Mediterranean Europe


Where is the market going? : Where is the market going? highest world economic growth since 1976; sustained economic recovery in major generating markets (USA, Europe and Japan); impact of external shocks fades away; exchange rate as major factor in overall traffic distribution; gradual revival of long-haul markets; rebound in air traffic; consumer confidence is up again and has not been damaged by recent tragic events.


Slide11 : Mid-term Tourism market features Growth of demand for last minute travel Shorter holidays and their fragmentation Segmentation of demand Price sensitivity/Rapid growth of budget airlines More senior and youth tourists More individual travel


What about Europe ?????? : What about Europe ??????


Europe - trend by subregion : Europe - trend by subregion Source: World Tourism Organization


Slide14 : Where have the new arrivals gone to? Source: World Tourism Organization Europe 16 million new arrivals


Exchange rates shift destination choice : Exchange rates shift destination choice 2004: $ 1 = € 0.80 € 1 = $ 1.24 2002: $ 1 = € 1.06 € 1 = $ 0.95 Source: World Tourism Organization


Slide16 : Outbound => => => => => Inbound Exchange rates shift destination choice


Slide18 : Source: World Tourism Organization Long-Haul Retrieve in Europe


International Tourism: Outlook 2005 : International Tourism: Outlook 2005 Estimated 5% growth in international tourist arrivals sustained economic growth in major generating markets; world economic growth (+4.3%); decrease effect of external shocks; short-term and limited effect of the tragic events in the Indian Ocean; consumer confidence is up; back to the focus on “tourism” internal competitive factors.


Slide20 : Objective: monitoring short term evolution of worlwide tourism Frequency: 3 times a year (January, June, October) Three permanent elements: Short term tourism data (arrivals, receipts and expenditure) WTO Panel of Tourism Experts Economic data relevant for tourism WTO World Tourism Barometer


WTO World Tourism Barometer : WTO World Tourism Barometer Much better Better Equal Worse Much worse Source: World Tourism Organization


Slide22 : Asia and the Pacific: economic dynamism / China outbound market / India also “to watch”/ decreased border control / air capacity expansion / intraregional traffic; Outlook 2005: major trends by regions Americas: revival of US outbound / weak USD / revival of Argentina and Brazil / strong flow to Central and South America and the Caribbean;


Slide23 : Europe: sustained economic growth/ strong euro / EU enlargement effect / gradual return of traffic from USA and Japan and good expectations over China; Outlook 2005 - Major trends by regions Africa: competitive price advantage in the North / Subsaharan Africa much dependent on South Africa performance (strong rand); Middle East: strong bet in tourism / intraregional traffic/significant increase in air capacity.


WTO World Tourism Barometer : WTO World Tourism Barometer Much better Better Equal Worse Much worse Source: World Tourism Organization


Slide25 : International Tourism in Lithuania International Tourism Receipts (2003) euro 564 million = +6% over 2002 3% share in Central/ Eastern Europe vs 0.4% in 1995 average receipts per arrival : euro 378 (vs euro 291 in Central / Eastern Europe) (1) Tourist arrivals at all accommodation establishments International Tourist Arrivals (2003) 1,5 million = +4% over 2002 2% share in Central / Eastern Europe vs 1% in 1995 11% average growth 1995-2003 2004 Data: +38% arrivals up to September TCE (1) + 19% receipts up to September Source: WTO Market Intelligence and Promotion Department


Slide26 : Lithuania’s tourism strengths European Union membership Good and accessible location (proximity to major generating markets) Rich heritage and living rural lifestyles and traditions High hospitality and service standards A climate of safety and security A wide range of tourism products Excellent gastronomy Dynamic investment in tourism infrastructure


Slide27 : Thank you for your attention! www.world-tourism.org