Presentation Transcript
TRANSPORT – THE NEXT 50 YEARS Christchurch Convention Centre 25-27 July 2007 : TRANSPORT – THE NEXT 50 YEARS Christchurch Convention Centre 25-27 July 2007 « What can we learn from the last 50 years? »
Jack Short
Secretary General
International Transport Forum
www.internationaltransportforum.org
www.cemt.org
Structure : Structure Look Back
Look Forward
Lessons
Looking Back : Looking Back Since 1950:
World population x 2.5
Urban population x 4
Slide4 : World population 1950-2005 (thousands)
Looking Back : Looking Back Since 1950:
World population x 2.5
Urban population x 4
World GDP x 8
GDP / capita x 3
Slide6 : World GDP and GDP/capita
Looking back : Looking back Since 1950:
World population x 2.5
Urban population x 4
World GDP x 8
GDP / capita x 3
World trade x 20
Slide8 : World trade (billion 2000 US$)
Looking Back : Looking Back Since 1950:
World population x 2.5
Urban population x 4
World GDP x 8
GDP / capita x 3
World trade x 20
Mobility increased and altered (longer trips, more leisure trips, more by road and air)
Freight transport trends (tonne-kilometers) Western European countries 1970=100 : Freight transport trends (tonne-kilometers) Western European countries 1970=100
Slide11 : Annual traffic: World airlines
(Number of passengers and million passenger-km)
Looking Back : Looking Back World population x 2.5
Urban population x 4
World GDP x 8
GDP / capita x 3
World trade x 20
Mobility increased and altered (longer trips, more leisure trips, more by road and air)
Number of cars x 4 since the 1960s
Slide13 : Number of Cars in the World
Major Productivity Increases : Major Productivity Increases Technology: Cars/Trucks/Aircraft/Ships/Trains
Improved reliability, faster speeds, bigger sizes.
Containers revolutionised freight transport
Growth in containership size : Growth in containership size Emma Maersk. August 2006 Source: Fremont (2007)
Efficiency of terminal handling operations : Efficiency of terminal handling operations
Major Productivity Increases : Major Productivity Increases Technology: Cars/Trucks/Aircraft/Ships/Trains
Improved reliability, faster speeds, bigger sizes.
Containers revolutionised freight transport.
Through infrastructure investment.
Slide18 : Source: ITF database
Major Productivity Increases : Major Productivity Increases Technology: Cars/Trucks/Aircraft/Ships/Trains
Improved reliability, faster speeds, bigger sizes.
Containers revolutionised freight transport.
Through infrastructure investment.
Costs/ prices declined.
Reduction in costs : Reduction in costs Sea freight
Unit cost on the North Atlantic in 2002:
1200 TEU ship: 550 US$ per unit
6500 TEU ship: 240 US$ per unit
Air freight
1995: 3.9 $ per tonne-km
2004: 0.3 $ per tonne-km Sources: Fremont (2007); Hummel (2006)
Aircraft operating costs per seat mile : Aircraft operating costs per seat mile Source: World bank
Major Productivity Increases : Major Productivity Increases Technology: Cars/Trucks/Aircraft/Ships/Trains
Improved reliability, faster speeds, bigger sizes.
Containers revolutionised freight transport.
Through infrastructure investment.
Costs/ prices declined.
AND
Dramatic reductions in crashes and pollution
Summary - looking back : Summary - looking back Transport system is now
Faster
Cheaper
Safer
Cleaner
More efficient than ever
But, still
too dirty (3 billion tonnes of CO2)
too unsafe (over 1 million road deaths)
too inefficient (protectionism, closed markets)
Often too expensive
Looking Ahead : Looking Ahead World population grows to 9 billion by 2050 with 7 billion in cities
Slide25 : World population 1950-2005 (thousands)
Looking Ahead : Looking Ahead World population grows to 9 billion by 2050 with 7 billion in cities.
World GDP and GDP/capita more than doubles by 2030.
Slide27 : GDP growth will continue, developed countries growth will slow Projection:
Developed countries, 1990-2001 growth
China, slowdown of growth
Rest of the world, slight improvement Slowing down Rapid growth Steady growth
Looking Ahead : Looking Ahead World population grows to 9 billion by 2030 with 7 billion in cities
World GDP and GDP/capita more than doubles by 2030
Trade growth will continue
Transport growth also
Links between GDP and transport
Elasticities might alter
But broad links to continue
Ton-km and pass-km will follow GDP growth, oil consumption has remained at the 1970s leve : Ton-km and pass-km will follow GDP growth, oil consumption has remained at the 1970s leve GDP (constant US$), freight (ton-km), passenger transport (pass-km) and oil consumption (tonnes) in the EU-15 (index 1970=100) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 pass-km GDP Ton-km Sources: BP Statistical Revies of World Energy 2007; ITF database; OECD database
Looking ahead : Looking ahead World population grows to 9 billion by 2030 with 7 billion in cities
World GDP and GDP/capita more than doubles by 2030
Trade growth will continue
Links between GDP and Transport
Elasticities might alter
But broad links to continue
Transport forecasts:
- often wrong, miss structural change.
In 1970s, forecasts overestimated actual trends Transport on road (bill. ton-km) in Sweden : In 1970s, forecasts overestimated actual trends Transport on road (bill. ton-km) in Sweden Source: SIKA 4/2005 Forecast 1975
Forecast 1975
Forecast 1983
Forecast 1989
Forecast 1993
Forecast 1995
Forecast 1999
Actual
Underestimated in 1990s Europe: Freight – 15 1993-2010, 1000 bill. ton-km : Underestimated in 1990s Europe: Freight – 15 1993-2010, 1000 bill. ton-km
Looking ahead : Looking ahead World population grows to 9 billion by 2030 with 7 billion in cities
World GDP and GDP/capita more than doubles by 2030
Trade growth will continue
Links between GDP and Transport
Elasticities might alter
But broad links to continue
Transport forecasts:
often wrong, miss structural change
Suffer from project optimism and biases
Project optimism : Project optimism 0 5 10 15 20 25 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Passengers (millions) original forecast - 1995 Airline passengers between UK and France Actual Eurostar passengers Eurostar passenger numbers and forecasts. Sources: LCR and CAA
Looking ahead : Looking ahead World population grows to 9 billion by 2030 with 7 billion in cities
World GDP and GDP/capita more than doubles by 2030
Trade growth will continue
Links between GDP and Transport
Elasticities might alter
But broad links to continue
Transport forecasts:
often wrong, miss structural change
Suffer from project optimism and biases
But useful to build scenarios, to inform and give warning signs for policy.
Looking Ahead : Looking Ahead Transport will consume more energy (i.e. growth will be faster than efficiency improvements)
Energy Use in Transport : Energy Use in Transport
Looking ahead : Looking ahead Transport will consume more energy (i.e. growth will be faster than efficiency improvements)
System will face increasing pressure
Congestion will grow
In developing world cities
In suburbs in all cities
In airports and in the air
In ports and inland connections
Slide39 : Congestion outlook in the Netherlands Congestion increase +30% by 2020 on Dutch motorways Hours per road section:
>3000
>1500 - 3000
>1000 - 1500
> 750 - 1000
> 500 - 750
> 300 - 500
< 300 Hours spent in congestion on German roads, 2015 forecast Source: IWW.
Road Congestion, US 2020 : Road Congestion, US 2020
Slide41 : Increased congestion in hub airports World Air Traffic Outlook Revenue Earning Passenger Kilometres Sources: Airbus for passengers, Boeing for freight Sources: Airbus for passengers, Boeing for freight
Lessons : Lessons
Policies
Politics
Policies : Policies Most countries have similar policy aims
But few have clear priorities…
…or discussion of possible tradeoffs
Most underestimate societal and economic forces and trends…
…especially those favoring car and truck use
Few worry about demand management or climate change
Most make limited use of economic instruments.
Policies : Policies Policies may reverse or halt existing trends
But measures are needed outside transport sector (fiscal, land use…)
…need to be sustained over a long period
…are expensive
and there are few successes so far.
Advice to policy makers and politicians : Advice to policy makers and politicians Improve appraisal of projects
90% of investment projects go over budget
procedures are more and more lengthy, complex and contested
Need strategic appraisal and political debate
Far better communication to public
Agreement on timetable for procedures
Advice to policy makers and politicians : Advice to policy makers and politicians Tackle problems directly
Not indirectly as we have done, for example, by dealing with:
Air quality through modal split policies
Truck traffic growth through rail investment
Congestion through public transport support
Oil use through biofuels
Or by giving subsidies to everyone
With measures not aspirations.
Advice to policy makers and politicians : Advice to policy makers and politicians Don’t raise expectations or set unrealistic objectives as we did with promises to
eliminate congestion (UK)
get traffic off roads and onto rail (France)
eliminate accidents (Netherlands & others)
have sustainable system (New Zealand)
Advice to policy makers and politicians : Advice to policy makers and politicians Beware of secondary objectives for transport such as:
investing for employment reasons
protecting national operators/ companies
giving priority to suppliers rather than consumers
Conclusions : Conclusions Transport’s importance will continue to grow.
Public expectations will continue to increase.
Constraints on space, finance, environment will intensify.
Policies and politics will need to adapt so as to manage demand, and not simply meet it.
TRANSPORT – THE NEXT 50 YEARS Christchurch Convention Centre 25-27 July 2007 : TRANSPORT – THE NEXT 50 YEARS Christchurch Convention Centre 25-27 July 2007 « What can we learn from the last 50 years? »
Jack Short
Secretary General
International Transport Forum
www.internationaltransportforum.org
www.cemt.org
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