evenson k4dev 031014

Slide1: 

Robert E. Evenson Yale University Making Science and Technology Work for the Poor The Green Revolution in Africa The “Price of Admission” to the Growth Club for African Countries Development Strategies for Africa Knowledge for Development Seminar, Center for International Development Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, October 14, 2003

Green Revolution Stages: 

Green Revolution Stages Landraces (Farmer Selected Varieties) Early Modern Varieties NARS-Bred MV1 (First Generation) IARC-Bred High-Yielding Plant Type MV2 (Second Generation) IARC-Bred - NARS Combinations Host Plant Resistance: Diseases – Pests 5. MV3 (Third Generation) NARS-Bred, IARC Parents Host Plant Tolerance: Abiotic Stresses Agronomic Qualities

The CGIAR System: 

The CGIAR System The Food Security Threat Population and Food Security Global Market Focus Production, Consumption and Trade International Prices Supporters Foundations: Beginning in 1940s (Rockefeller – Ford) Bilateral Aid Agencies: 1950s – 1970s World Bank – Regional Banks:1970s - 2000 Global Success – Low World Prices Local Failure – Cost-Price Delivery Excluded Economies $1 per day – mass Poverty

MV Production - Adoption: 

MV Production - Adoption 11 Food Crops Rice (IRRI, CIAT, WARDA) Wheat (CIMMYT) Maize (CIMMYT, IITA) Sorghum (ICRISAT) Millets (ICRISAT) Barley (ICARDA) Beans (CIAT) Lentils (ICARDA) Groundnuts (ICRISAT) Cassava (CIAT, IITA) Potatoes (CID) MV Releases as MV Production Content Indicators IX: IARC Cross IP: IARC Parent, NARS Cross IA: IARC Non-Parent Ancestor – NARS Cross N: NARS Cross No IARC Ancestor TV: Traditional Variety

Initial Conditions: Early MVs (Percent): 

Initial Conditions: Early MVs (Percent)

Varietal Production and Varietal Adoption: 

Varietal Production and Varietal Adoption Annual Releases: 1970s 1980s 1990s IARC Content in Releases: IX: IARC Cross. IP: NARS Cross, IARC Parent. IA: NARS Cross, IARC Ancestor. N: NARS Cross, NARS Ancestor. Adoption Shares: 1970 1980 1990 M: Modern Varieties. T: Traditional Varieties. 1998 IARC Content.

Rice: 

Rice Three Regions: Three IARCs Millions Ha’s Varietal Releases Asia (IRRI) 120 1500 Latin America (CIAT) 7 350 Africa (WARDA) 7 185 Four Ecosystems: Deep-Water (No Varietal Release). Rained (Late Success - Traits). Irrigated (Early Success). Upland (EMBRAPA - Brazil - WARDA).

Rice - Asia : 

Rice - Asia Releases: Highest in 1980s. (1500 Varieties) IX/IA Shows Germplasm Pattern. Adoption: MV Rate High (IRRIGATED).

Rice - Latin America: 

Rice - Latin America Releases: Rising Through 1990s. (350 Varieties) IX/IA Shows Germplasm Pattern. Adoption: MV Complete on Irrigated Area, Beginning on Upland (EMBRAPA).

Rice - Africa: 

Rice - Africa Releases: Low Rates of Releases. (185 Varieties) IX/IA only in 1990s. Adoption: Slow until 1990s.

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Wheat (CIMMYT) Regions: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases Asia 52 750 Latin America 8 900 Africa (SS) 5 315 WANA 25 450 Ecosystems: Winter Spring Types: Bread Durum

Wheat - Asia : 

Wheat - Asia Releases: Highest in 1980s. (750 Varieties) IX/IA Content, IX high. Adoption: Rapid MV Adoption.

Wheat - Latin America: 

Wheat - Latin America Releases: Highest in 1980s. (900 Varieties) IX/IA Constant, IX high. Adoption: High MV Adoption.

Wheat - WANA: 

Wheat - WANA Releases: Highest in 1990s. (450 Varieties) IX/IA Content, IX high. Adoption: Slower than Asia - Latin America.

Wheat - Africa: 

Wheat - Africa Releases: No Time Trend. (315 Varieties) IX/IA Content High. Adoption: Slow MV Adoption.

Maize (CIMMYT:IITA): 

Maize (CIMMYT:IITA) Three Regions: Millions Ha’s Varietal Releases Public Private Asia (incomplete) 41 Latin America 39 760 690 Africa (IITA) 26 260 70 Qualities: Food (white) Feed (yellow) Types: Open Pollinated – Public. Hybrids - Private Seed Companies (Some Public). High IX/IA Content in Private Company Hybrids. Public Sector Platforms.

Maize - Latin America: 

Maize - Latin America Releases: Highest in 1990s. Private Rates High in 1990s. IX/IA Content High - Public and Private Releases. Adoption: 50 % MV in 1998. Most MVs have IX/IA Content. Public Private

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Maize - Africa Releases: Highest in 1990s. Private and Private. IX/IA Content Increasing - Public and Private. Adoption: 50 % MV in 1998. Public Private

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Sorghum and Pearl Millet (ICRISAT) Regions: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases Sorghum - Asia 15 240 Sorghum - Africa 22 35 Pearl Millet - Asia 16 70 Pearl Millet - Africa 20 20 Types: Open- Pollinated Varieties. Hybrid Varieties (Private Sector) Hybrid Production Growing Rapidly. IX/IA Content in Private Hybrids. Public Sector Platforms for Private Sector Research.

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Sorghum - Asia Releases: Highest in 1990s. Private Hybrids in 1990s. IX/IA Content Moderate. Adoption: Moderate MV Adoption Rates.

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Sorghum - Africa Releases: Highest in 1990s. Private Hybrids in 1990s. IX/IA Content High. Adoption: MV Adoption Slow.

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Pearl Millet - Asia Releases: Highest in 1990s. IX/IA Content High. Adoption: MV Adoption High.

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Pearl Millet - Africa Releases: Low. IX/IA Content High. Adoption: MV Increasing.

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Beans (CIAT) Region: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases Latin America 9 540 Africa 3 Releases: High in 1990s. IX Content Very High. Adoption: MV Adoption Slow. Latin America Africa

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Regions: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases Latin America 3 70 Africa (SS) 10 150 Cassava (CIAT and IITA)

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Cassava - Latin America Releases: Past 1980s. IX/IA Content Almost 100 %. Adoption: MV Adoption Very Low.

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Adoption: MV Adoption Modest. All MVs have IX/IA Content. Cassava - Africa Releases: Highest 1980s. IX/IA Content High.

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Potatoes (CIP) Regions: Million Ha’s Varietal Releases Asia 6 20 Latin America 8 200 Africa 5 100

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Potatoes - Asia Releases: Increasing 1990s. IX/IA Low and Rising. Adoption: Medium Level of MV Adoption.

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Potatoes - Latin America Releases: Increasing Slowly. IX/IA Content Increasing. Adoption: High Level of MV Adoption.

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Potatoes - Africa Releases: Low in 1990s, Rising. IX/IA Content High. Adoption: High Levels of MV Adoption.

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Modern Variety Production by Decade and Region

Production of MVs: 

Production of MVs NGOs – none Private Seed Firms Hybrids Little Due to Breeders’ Rights Developed Country Programs 60s – 70s: less than half a percent 80s – 90s: none IARCs: 36% NARS: 50-60%

MV1 Coverage: 

MV1 Coverage

MV3 Coverage: 

MV3 Coverage

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Modern Variety Diffusion by Decade and Region

MVs and Productivity Growth: 

MVs and Productivity Growth MV/TV Conversion Impacts Highest at Early Adoption MV/MV Conversion or Turnover Highest at Late Adoption IARC Literature Synthesis Incomplete Micro-Macro Consistency Country Studies (India, Brazil, China) International Crop MFP Studies rice, wheat, maize

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Annual Growth Contributions of Modern Varieties

Costs-Benefits and Internal Rate of Return: 

Costs-Benefits and Internal Rate of Return

Without the Green Revolution…: 

Without the Green Revolution… Prices would have Risen. More Imports by Developing Countries. More Cropped Area by all Countries. More Child Deaths More Malnourished Children. More Families in Poverty.

For the Excluded Economies…: 

For the Excluded Economies… Food Price Reductions Help Consumers Price Reductions without Cost Reductions Harms Farmers

The Gene Revolution :GMOs: 

The Gene Revolution :GMOs The Scientific Revolution Biological Science has changed The Biotech Revolution Medical GMOs 15,000 Patented Inventions 350-500 in Treatment Regimes Plant Inventions 5,000 Patented Inventions Major Products: Bt Products Glysophate Tolerant-Product BST milk

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Adoption: Herbicide Tolerant Soybeans 75% Bt Maize 20% Bt Cotton 20% Herbicide Tolerant Maize 10% Transgenic Seed Market 2003 $4 billion Crop Protection Market $30 billion Herbicides 15 billion Insecticides 8 billion Fungicides 6 billion

Regulations: 

Regulations Food Safety U.S. 5200 deaths from Food Borne Illness 375,000 hospitalizations None linked to GMOs Environmental Safety Out crossing - Yes Insect Population Shifts - Yes But Little Evidence Yet

Cost considerations: Cotton: 

Cost considerations: Cotton Cost Advantage - 10 Percent 20 Percent Adoption Low Price Elasticity of Demand Prices Fall by 10 Percent Costs Fall by 10 Percent for Adopters Costs Do Not Fall for Non-Adopters

The “Price of Admission” to the Growth Club: 

The “Price of Admission” to the Growth Club Innovation Capital R&D Capacity, Agriculture (IARC-NARS) R&D Capacity, Industry (Producing Firms) Imitation Capital Agriculture - Agricultural Extension Industry - Foreign Direct Investment

In/Im Capital Indicators for Developing Countries : 

In/Im Capital Indicators for Developing Countries

Country In/Im Classifications 1961-76, 1971-86, 1981-1996 (1): 

Country In/Im Classifications 1961-76, 1971-86, 1981-1996 (1)

Country In/Im Classifications 1961-76, 1971-86, 1981-1996 (2): 

Country In/Im Classifications 1961-76, 1971-86, 1981-1996 (2)

Agricultural Indicators by ln/lm Class (1): 

Agricultural Indicators by ln/lm Class (1)

Agricultural Indicators by ln/lm Class (2): 

Agricultural Indicators by ln/lm Class (2)

MV Adoption Percentages 1998: 

MV Adoption Percentages 1998

Total Factor Productivity (TFP): 

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) A Measure of the Rate of Cost Reduction World Prices Decline by ¾ to 1% per year Farmer’s Income Falls IF TFP Less than ¾ to 1% per year FAO Data Allow Calculation Rate of Growth of production minus Rate of Growth of Input Costs Calculations by Country & Region Calculations by Innovation – Technology Transfer Class

TFP Growth Rates: 

TFP Growth Rates

GDP Growth and Industrial Competitiveness: 

GDP Growth and Industrial Competitiveness

Development Strategies: 

Development Strategies Building Innovation Capital IARC – NARS Programs R&D in Industrial Firms Building Imitation Capital Agricultural Extension? NGO Extension? Foreign Direct Investment

Building NARS Capacity: 

Building NARS Capacity 1950s-1970s Capacity Strategy Building Regional Centers – M. Sc. Study Sending High Potential Students Abroad Building “Flagship” University Programs Minimum Requirements Mentoring Support – International Faculty Full Support by Load Governments Political Stability Success in Asia and Latin America Limited Success and Failure in Africa

The Economic Case for Innovation Capital: 

The Economic Case for Innovation Capital Schooling – Income Studies Show Highest Income Increments to Primary School Next Highest Income Increment to Secondary School Next Highest Income Increment to University Education How can one justify Ph.D. study? Externality: The “Price of Admission” to the Growth Club Without Agricultural Scientists – No Growth Can Africa get by with Second Class Agricultural Scientists ? No! African Problems are Harder! Small countries – Regions Can Africa afford to ignore Biotechnology Science? No! Biotech Methods are Part of Science (African Problems are Harder).

Building NARS Capacity in Africa- 2003: 

Building NARS Capacity in Africa- 2003 Will the 1950s-1970s Strategy work? Mobility - Brain Drain Replacement Migration - OECD countries Alternatives Sandwich Ph.D. Programs Degree from African University Coursework in OECD countries African Ph.D. Programs Extensive Visiting Faculty African University Support Vital

Can Africa rely on International NGOs? : 

Can Africa rely on International NGOs? NGOs do not create Technology (many are hostile to Technology) NGOs damage GOs Many NGOs have International Agendas NGOs are like MNCs You can exploit them or They can exploit you Extension Micro credit

Slide63: 

Does African Industry need R&D to be Competitive? Natural Resources -oil-minerals - Probably not Manufacturing – Yes Can African Industry Exploit Multi – National Companies (MNCs)? Yes – All Successful Industrial Countries exploit MNCs Unsuccessful Industrial countries claim that MNCs exploit them Can African Countries achieve Industrial Competitiveness without first achieving Agricultural Competitiveness? No – No cases in Asia or Latin America