The Ultimate Handbook - Forex Trading Basics and Secrets

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Forex illustrated provides reliable and independent information about foreign exchange market. Our aim is to offer insightful and useful analysis of the best tools and learning materials for mastering the skills of trading in a productive, fun and fast manner.

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THE ULTIMATE HANDBOOK FOREX TRADING BASICS SECRETS ¤ BEST FOR BEGINNERS www.forexhero.eu Forex Hero Volume 3.0 VIP Edition

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There’s a lot of information about forex trading spread all over the web but many of them are out of date and lots of them contain only a fraction of what you need to know to become a successful trader. Let’s fix that. The popularity of the “Forex Basics Secrets in 15 Minutes” e-book has encouraged us to create the third upgraded edition. We received a lot of great feedback about the first and second e-book thank you For this new edition we have rewritten everything from the ground up. We are pretty sure you won’t find so many distilled tips anywhere else. We made this ebook as the ultimate learning resource for ourselves and hope you enjoy it too Dont let the simplicity of this book disappoint or fool you. If someone teaches you something and it sounds really complex they probably havent taken the time to think through how to boil it down. Be careful with folks like that. Theres a dierence between being good at something and being good at teaching it. That’s why we have tried to distill all the methods to their bare minimum. You will not find long watery essay type paragraphs here just actionable and easy-to-digest information. This e-book will help you learn Forex trading skills in the fastest time possible It doesnt matter so much what education and background you have. Our program has shown interesting results: people with no previous financial market experience oen delivered better performance than those with the experience Watch the TV series “Million-Dollar Trader” and this fact is confirmed as well. About this book Time: 4 years The usual way Our way Time: 45 minutes

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SECTION 01 INTRODUCTION AND KEY CONCEPTS ¤

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How it works You choose a reputable broker register open or download its terminal platform choose the leverage make a deposit and just trade the currency pairs by anticipating if these will go up or down Buy or Sell. The currency pair price changes will generate your profits. It is better to invest in the currency of a country that is growing faster and fund it with a currency of a country that is growing slower. When does it work The market is open 24 hours 5.5 days a week for trading. Read on to uncover deeper secrets about forex timing. Forex trading quick facts Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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USD/CHF EUR/JPY USD/CAD EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY exchange foreign The most common currency pairs Forex is an international currency market with daily deals worth 4 billion. The trade in Forex occurs between two currencies because one currency is being bought and another – sold at the same time. FOREX TOP PAIR EUR/USD deals of all 1/3 EUR/USD 1.3001 1.3000 Selling price Bid Buying price Ask Base Currency Quote Currency 28 EUR/USD EUR/USD Point Pip The fourth unit after the decimal point which is the smallest unit of an exchange rate. Spread The dierence between the sell quote and the buy quote in pips. The smaller the spread the more liquid the currency spread point What is forex Key terms Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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Make money even in times of crisis While the stock market and commercial bank deposits are in deep depression during the crisis Forex profits because any change in currency can be used to make profit. A falling market is as profitable for Forex trading as a developing one because unlike in stock trading you can short the falling assets. Withdraw profit whenever you want A 50 billion market isn’t just a miraculously beautiful number – it is also what ensures that you can sell or buy any amount of currency you wish at any moment. Work while lying in a hammock All you need to start making money is a computer or a smart phone and an Internet connection. Your work space and goals are up to you Easy rules Unlike the stock market with tens of thousands of dierent shares Forex works with 8 basic currencies which are the center of most trades. Moreover there are significantly less factors that influence currency exchange rates than in the stock market. Start with 10000 300 Until around 2002 the average investment needed to start trading was around 10000. Today and unlike other finance markets Forex doesn’t require a huge budget for you to take part. You can start trading with just 300 - 500. 5 advantages of forex Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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Most of other forex learning materials will tell you that forex offers an easy way to make money. Unlike those others we will tell you that it’s not true Here are the three main things you need to consider before investing any time or money in currency trading: High risk to lose the whole position In stock trading unlike forex it is very unlikely that you will lose all the money when investing in the stock market. 99 of day traders lose money Some just manage to make more than they lose. Youll know youre not a beginner anymore when youre spending your time thinking about where and when to best cut your losses. It’s not for everyone If you are not disciplined and are prone to rash decisions then perhaps currency trading is not for you. If you are too busy to find time for managing an investment portfolio then you should consider social trading where you can copy experienced traders so that they do the “heavy liing” for you. All traders start with the dream to get rich quick 1 of all traders can profit net of fees Will you be the 1 40 trade only for one month 80 quit within the first 2 years Only 7 remain aer 5 years Trader survival rate 3 main disadvantages of forex Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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If you’re like most of our readers you’re commited to winning at work and succeeding in life. But the truth is you struggle with finding enought time to do it all. That’s exactly where social trading can help - you can follow experienced traders learn from them online and copy the trades of those who have earned your trust. Here’s how it works: S. Emmanuel Zheng Bin Jan Morten S. Emmanuel Zheng Bin Jan Morten Follow Follow Follow Follow Follow Follow TOP traders TOP traders Even if you’re new to Forex there are beginner friendly platforms like eToro or Tradeo that oer you an interesting opportunity – to follow the best traders and copy their transactions. 1 Aer you choose a top trader whose actions you wish to copy decide upon an amount of money to invest into copying his transactions and press “copy” . 3 Start following the best traders and watch their activities. 2 Choose a platform Follow the leaders Now you can sit back and watch a professional make transactions for you. This is also a good way to learn Forex strategies in a real-life trading environment. 4 Learn Profit Copy their trades Zheng Bin Japan Zheng Bin sold EUR/USD 1.1244 2 minutes ago 15407 people are investing in EUR/USD 75 are selling Follow Copy Copy trade Advice for the busy ones Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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Put 10 of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90 in a very low cost SP 500 index fund. I suggest Vanguard’s. I believe the index’s long-term results will be superior to those attained by most investors. ...When the dumb investor realises how dumb he is and buys an index fund he becomes smarter than the smartest investors. If you don’t like taking big risk then take the advice from Warren Buet - the most successful investor. This is the advice he gave to his own testament money managers: A 100000 investment in the SP 500 in February 1977 would be worth about 6 million as of the end of 2015 included reinvested dividends. To those who dislike big risks Advice from Warren Buet Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts Proof

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In the chart below you can see how the euro dropped due to multiple political factors. This was a great opportunity to make money shorting betting that it would decline the euro. Dec 1 2011 Nov 1 2011 EUR/USD Prime Minister of Greece announces referendum The EU cannot agree upon changes in the treaty Central banks agree to stimulate liquidity of finan- cial transaction ECB announces a new president Berlusconi resigns Source: Morgan Stanley Research Bloomberg. Example of how EUR/USD dropped Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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Term Leverage Term Lot Term Spread Stock market Forex market Through the use of leverage traders are able to invest a small amount of money and trade much larger deal sizes. This is useful because the movement in currency rates can be very small and larger trades represent larger profits/losses for every pip change in the rate. Leverage allows you to trade with more money than you have in your account because you eectively “leverage” your free balance to open a larger trade. Leverage is shown as a ratio for example 1:100. Note that leverage amplifies both potential profits and losses alike. In Forex all transactions can be conducted via standard mini and micro lots. Each lot size accounts for a dierent measure of units of the base currency which in turn presents a dierent pip value. Below is a simple chart to illustrate the dierences in lot sizes measured in units volume for the major pairs where the base currency is USD. The smaller contract sizes have a broad appeal to beginner investors who do not want to take on a disproportional amount of risk. Those traders who are looking to get started in the forex market should consider opening a mini account because of the smaller contract sizes. Maximum leverage 1:2 from 1:10 to 1:400 Varying lot sizes Standard Lot 100000 units 1 1 pip 10 Mini Lot 10000 units 0.1 1 pip 1 Mini Lot 10’000 units 0.1 1 pip 1 Units of base currency Pip Value base: USD Volume Micro Lot 1000 units 0.01 1 pip 0.10 Leverage Lots Spread Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts The dierence between the bid price and the ask price is called a spread. If we were to look at the following quote: EUR/USD 1.2500/03 the spread would be 0.0003 or 3 pips also known as points. Although these movements may seem insignificant even the smallest point change can result in thousands of dollars being made or lost due to leverage. Again this is one of the reasons that speculators are so attracted to the forex market even the tiniest price movement can result in huge profit.

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You decide to buy 100000 EUR and sell USD at a rate of 1.4100. Do you need more than 100000 US dollars to open the trade No With a leverage of 1:50 you will need to put down only 1/50 of the deal size as the margin which works out to 2820. Calculate the margin: Leverage 1:50 Divide 100000 by 502000 EUR 2000 EUR x 1.412820 Margin2820 This is the amount that will be used to cover your potential losses. In other words the margin is the actual amount that you are risking to lose if the trade goes against you. Leverage is a very aggressive investment strategy and only those with high risk tolerance should consider using big leverage. Use leverage appropriate to your comfort level: Using 1:50 leverage means that a 2 adverse move could wipe out all your equity or margin. If you are a relatively cautious investor or trader use a lower level of leverage with perhaps 1:5 or 1:10 leverage. The leverage available on positions carried over the weekend may vary. Maximum leverage limits vary in dierent countries varying from 1:10 to 1:400. Use Stop Loss orders Stops can be used not just to ensure that losses are capped but also to protect profits. Example Tips Warnings Leverage “Leverage” simply means borrowed funds. While the high degree of leverage used in forex trading magnifies returns and risks a few safety precautions used by professional traders may help mitigate these risks. How leverage works Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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1.dec 1.nov 1.3500 1.3000 1.4000 EUR/USD Going short on euro Europe has been hit by a crisis so you expect the euro to fall against the US dollar. Open 1.3800 Close 1.3108 Case B: Leverage 1:200 You open a position of 1 lot which requires an initial deposit of 690 €1000001.3800/200. You were right. Euro depreciates against the dollar to 1.3108 and you decide to close your trade and take your profits. Result: The euro fell by 692 pips 1.3800 - 1.3108 x 10’000. Your profit is 692 x 1 lot x 200Leverage 138400 Case B: Leverage 1:50 You open a position of 1 lot which requires an initial deposit of 2760 €1000001.3800/50. You were right. Euro depreciates against the dollar to 1.3108 and you decide to close your trade and take your profits. Result: The euro fell by 692 pips 1.3800 - 1.3108 x 10’000. Your profit is 692 x 1 lot x 50 Leverage 34600 If the trend moves against the investor leverage magnifies losses the same way it magnifies returns in the examples above. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3. Investment: 690 Profit: 138400 Investment: 2760 Profit: 34600 Example: leverage in use Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts Profit: 138400

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Traders should look to use an eective leverage of 10-to1 or less. Research shows that the amount of capital in your trading account can aect your profitability. Traders with at least 5000 of capital tend to utilize more conservative amounts of leverage. It is recommended to invest 1000 - 5000 and use a leverage of 1:10. With smaller investment you will not get enough profits as the average changes in the currency rates are small. Thus traders who invest small amounts 50 - 100 are inclined to use big leverages to get tangible profits which in turn is very risky. How much should I invest Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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A visual trick for memorizing what is bull and what is bear On Wall Street the bulls and bears are in a constant struggle. If you havent heard of these terms already you undoubtedly will as you begin to invest. The terms bull market and bear market describe upward and downward market trends respectively and can be used to describe either the market as a whole or specific sectors and securities. These images will help you memorize which is which. Bullish action Bullish trend Bearish action Bearish trend Bullish candlestick Bearish candlestick Understand Bulls Bears Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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Open price Close price Open Close Close Open Open Close Close Open Highest price of the day Close price Open price Lowest price of the day Highest price of the day The line is called “shadow” The color bar is called “body” Lowest price of the day Color variation 1 How to read candlestick charts Color variation 2 B. A. C. A. Doji - when the opening and closing price are equal. B. Long-Legged Doji - aer small candlesticks they indicate a potential trend change. C. 4 Price Doji - where the high and low are equal. Normally only seen on thinly traded pairs. Unlock the potential of charts Section 01 | Introduction and key concepts

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eToro is a Social Investment Network. Plus500 Ltd is a CFD only Service. Your Capital may be at risk. www.etoro.com Platform Min. Deposit Max. Leverage Social trading Rating 200 1:400 For optimum risk-reward ratio it is recomended toinvest at least 300 www.plus500.com 100 1:300 www.easyforex.com 25 1:200 www.fxcm.com 2000 1:50 1 2 3 visit site visit site visit site visit site visit site 4 5 www.tradeo.com 100 1:200

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SECTION 02 KEY DRIVERS OF CURRENCY MOVEMENTS ¤

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Currencies move primarily based on supply and demand. That is on the most fundamental level a currency rallies because there is a demand for that currency. Regardless of whether the demand is for hedging speculative or conversion purposes true movements are based on the need for the currency. Currency values decrease when there is excess supply. Supply and demand should be the real determinants for predicting future movements. However how to predict supply and demand is not as simple as many would think. Two of the primary factors aecting supply and demand of currencies are interest rates and the overall strength of the economy. There are many factors that contribute to the net supply and demand for a currency and the strength of the economy. Read on to uncover the main drivers that influence the exchange rates. The number of economic announcements made each day from around the world can be intimidating so we will focus just on the most important ones. How are they divided The drivers are divided into three major groups: Geo-political Economic and Market Psychology. Economic factors Geo-political conditions Market psychology 1 2 3 Central bank Policy divergence The key drivers of currency rates Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements 5

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In order to save your time on navigating a huge list of dierent economic indicators we went through dierent books of pro traders and compiled a list of the top indicators that have the biggest influence on currency rates. Here they are: TOP 9 Kathy Lien Chief Currency Strategist at Forex Capital Markets LLC. Former Currency trader at JPMorgan Chase. Interest rates FOMC rate decisions Inflation CPI Consumer Price Index GDP growth Unemployment NFP or Non Farm Payroll Will US employment continue to grow Retail sales Trade balance deficit or surplus Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index PMI Stock market Condition Kathy’s Top 9 key drivers indicators Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9

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Central bank Policy divergence The greenback for example is being driven higher by policy divergence between a Fed that is still likely to tighten policy increase interest rates in 2017 and central banks in the U.K. euro zone and Japan that will expand the money supply. “The consequence of the ongoing uncertainty in markets where we see two of the big three global central banks still biased toward additional monetary easing and ongoing uncertainty for the U.K. with potential easing there is that the dollar is going to be a beneficiary ” said Jeremy Stretch London-based head of foreign-exchange strategy at CIBC. Aer three straight years of gains strategists are forecasting the U.S. currency will be a world beater again in 2017 strengthening against seven of 10 developed-world peers by the end of the year according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. That outlook is backed by the Federal Reserve’s stated intent to continue raising interest rates while peers in the rest of the world keep them flat or lower. "This is the third big dollar rally we’ve had" said Marc Chandler global head of currency strategy in New York at Brown Brothers Harriman Co. "The Obama dollar rally I think was being fueled by the divergence in monetary policy." Trade deficits or surpluses When a country imports more than it exports the trade balance will show a deficit which is generally considered unfavorable. For example if the U.S. trade figures show greater imports than exports more dollars flow out of the U.S. and the value of the U.S. currency depreciates. Similarly if trade figures show an increase in exports dollars will flow into the United States and appreciate the value of the dollar. From the standpoint of a national economy a deficit in and of itself is not necessarily a bad thing. If the deficit is greater than market expectations however it can trigger a negative price movement. All traderswill find it valuable to know when important economic data are scheduled for release particularly those that will aect the U.S. dollar. This is because 90 of all currency trades are against the greenback making currencies naturally sensitive to U.S. economic releases. A closer look at some economical indicators Key indicators Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements

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When foreign investors move their money to a particular stock equity market they convert their capital in a domestic currency and push the demand for it higher making the currency appreciate. When the equity markets are experiencing recessions however foreign investors tend to flee thus converting back to their home currency and pushing the domestic currency down. Stock market conditions Stock markets have a significant impact on exchange rate movements because they are a major place for high-volume currency movements. There are times where sentiment in the equity markets will be the precursor to major moves in the forex market. If the stock equity market is rising investment dollars generally come in to seize the opportunity. Alternatively falling equity markets could prompt domestic investors to sell their shares of local publicly traded firms to take advantage of investment opportunities abroad. To understand this further lets imagine that the UK economy is booming and its stock market is performing well. Meanwhile in the United States a lackluster economy is creating a shortage of investment opportunities. In this type of environment U.S. investors will feel more inclined to sell their U.S. dollars and buy British pounds to participate in the outperformance of the UK economy. When they elect to do so it results in the outflow of capital from the United States and the inflow of capital into the United Kingdom. From an exchange rate perspective this would induce a fall in the USD coupled with a rise in the GBP as demand for USD declines and the demand for GBP increases translating into strength for the GBP/USD currency pair. Even day and swing traders will find it valuable to keep up with incoming economic reports from the major economies. A closer look at some indicators Key indicators Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements

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GDP is no longer a big deal GDP report has also become one of least important economic indicators on the U.S. calendar as it has led to some of the smallest relative movements in the EURUSD. One possible explanation is that GDP is released less frequently than other data in our study it comes out quarterly versus monthly but in general the GDP report is more prone to ambiguity and misinterpretation. For example surging GDP brought about by rising exports will be positive for the home currency however if GDP growth is a result of inventory buildup the eect on the currency may actually be negative. Also a large number of the components that comprise the GDP report are known in advance of the release. The most overrated indicator Key indicators Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements

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Volatility and profits in forex are measured in pips. The bigger the volatility the more pips and money a trader can make from a certain trade. Keep this chart by your side and make sure to mark these reports in your calendar • NFP - Non Farm Payroll. Unemployment indicator showing if U.S. employment is growing or not. • FOMC - decision on the U.S. interest rates. • Trade Balance - deficit or surplus. • CPI - Consumer Price Index. Inflation indicator. • Retail Sales - An estimate of the total sales of goods by all retail establishments in the U.S. for month prior to the release of the report. That traders should follow closely Most volatile news reports Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements

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What are Economic Indicators Economic indicators are snippets of financial and economic data published regularly by governmental agencies and the private sector. These statistics help market observers monitor the economys pulse - so its no surprise that theyre followed by almost everyone in the financial markets. With so many people poised to react to the same information economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and move prices. It might seem like you need an advanced economics degree to parse all this data accurately - but in fact traders need only keep a few simple guidelines in mind when making trading decisions based on this data. Mark Your Economic Calendars Watching the economic calendar not only helps you consider trades around these events it helps explain otherwise unanticipated price actions during those periods. Consider this scenario: its Monday morning and the USD has been falling for 3 weeks with many traders short USD positions as a result. On Friday however U.S. employment data is scheduled to be released. If that report looks promising traders may start unwinding their short positions before Friday leading to a short-term rally in USD through the week. Know exactly when each economic indicator will be released. You can find these calendars at the New York Federal Reserve Banks site. What does This Data Mean for the Economy You need not understand every nuance of each data release but you should try to grasp key large-scale relationships between reports and what they measure in the economy. For example you should know which indicators measure the economys growth gross domestic product or GDP versus those that measure inflation PPI CPI or employment strength non-farm payrolls. Not All Economic Indicators can Move Markets The market may pay attention to dierent indicators under dierent conditions. That focus can change over time and from one currency to another. For example if prices inflation are not a crucial issue for a given country but its economic growth is problematic traders may pay less attention to inflation data and focus on employment data or GDP reports. What you need to know about them Part 1 Economic indicators Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements

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Watch for the Unexpected Oen the data itself may not be as important as whether or not it falls within market expectations. If a given report diers widely and unexpectedly from what economists and market pundits were anticipating market volatility and potential trading opportunities may result. At the same time be careful of pulling the trigger too quickly when an indicator falls outside expectations. Each new economic indicator release contains revisions to previously released data. Read more about this in the next section “Consensus Vs Actual numbers” . Dont Get Caught Up in Details While your macroeconomics professor may appreciate all the nuances of an economic report traders need to filter data to focus on the numbers that can inform their trading decisions. For example many new traders watch the headlines of the employment report for example assuming that new jobs are key to economic growth. That may be true generally but in trading terms non-farm payroll is the figure traders watch most closely and therefore has the biggest impact on markets. Similarly PPI measures changes in producer prices generally - but traders tend to watch PPI excluding food and energy as a market driver. Food and energy data tend to be much too volatile and subject to revisions to provide an accurate reading on producer price changes. There are Two Sides to Every Trade Just remember that no traders knowledge can be complete all the time. You might have a great handle on economic data published in Europe - but there are times when data published in the U.S. or Australia might have a surprising impact on your currency market. Doing your homework before trading any currency can help you make better decisions. What you need to know about them Part 2 Economic indicators Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements

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Buy the rumors sell on the news This is a common phrase used in the forex market because oen times it seems that when a news report is released the movement doesn’t match what the report would lead you to believe. For example let’s say that the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to increase. Imagine that last month the unemployment rate was at 8.8 and the consensus for this upcoming report is 9.0. With a consensus at 9.0 it means that all the big market players are anticipating a weaker U.S. economy and as a result a weaker dollar. So with this anticipation big market players aren’t going to wait until the report is actually released to start acting on taking a position. They will go ahead and start selling o their dollars for other currencies before the actual number is released. Now let’s say that the actual unemployment rate is released and as expected it reports 9.0. As a retail trader you see this and think “Okay this is bad news for the U.S. It’s time to short the dollar” However when you go to your trading platform to start selling the dollar you see that the markets aren’t exactly moving in the direction you thought it would. It’s actually moving up What the heck Whyyyyyy This is because the big players have already adjusted their positions way before the news report even came out and may now be taking profits aer the run up to the news event. Now let’s revisit this example but this time imagine that the actual report released an unemployment rate of 8.0. The market players thought the unemployment rate would rise to 9.0 because of the consensus but instead the report showed that the rate actually decreased showing strength for the dollar. What you would see on your charts would be a huge dollar rally across the board because the big market players didn’t expect this to happen. Now that the report is released and it says something totally dierent from what they had anticipated they are all trying to adjust their positions as fast as possible. This would also happen if the actual report released an unemployment rate of 10.0. The only dierence would be that instead of the dollar rallying it would drop like a rock Since the market consensus was 9.0 but the actual report showed a bigger 10.0 unemployment rate the big players would sell o more of their dollars because the U.S. looks a lot weaker now than when the forecasts were first released. It’s important to keep track of the market consensus and the actual numbers you can better gauge which news reports will actually cause the market to move and in what direction. Concensus Vs Actual numbers Economic indicators Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements Reference: babybips

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About elections and continuity A surprise strong showing for Sanders "would have upset markets" by reducing the likelihood of Clinton becoming the next president Lim Say Boon chief investment oicer at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore wrote in a report. The Super Tuesday results are being seen as "an outcome for continuity over the disruption threatened by Trump and Sanders" he said. You must remember that investors hate uncertainty Armed conflicts lead to depreciation An impending war tends to negatively aect major currencies. Instability in the world market prods investors to pull out of their financial positions leading to currency depreciation. Dollar gains as new Presidents get elected Dollar gains as Reagan cuts taxes Fed raises interest rates. Similar eects have occured with Clinton and Obama. For Trump the upward trend was also there due to his promise to lower taxes and increase government spending on infrastrucure. Wars Natural disasters Political unrest Elections How Geo-politics aect currency rates Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements

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The golden rule of economic indicators The currency rates oen start moving even before the actual data comes out due to forecasts and market sentiment Sentiment analysis is a kind of FX analysis that concentrates on indicating and consequently measuring the overall psychological and emotional state of all participants of the foreign exchange market. This kind of Forex analysis strives to quantify what percentage of FX market participants are bullish or bearish in other words being optimistic or pessimistic. As already mentioned in the previous section“Concensus Vs Actual numbers” - Markets start moving from expectations and forecasts that are also available in the economic calendars. If the forecast promised a positive growth and the actual data comes out even better than forecasted it amplifies the rise of the currency even more. If the actual data comes out worse than expected it creates a strong downward pressure on the currency. Here is the rule to remember with financial reports: Market psychology Section 02 | Key drivers of currency movements Actual Forecast Good for currency

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SECTION 03 FOREX TIMING ¤

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Why timing is important The Foreign Exchange market operates 24 hours a day making it nearly impossible for a single trader to track every market movement and respond immediately at all times. Timing is everything in currency trading. In order to devise an eective and time-eicient investment strategy it is important to understand how much liquidity there is around the clock to maximize the number of trading opportunities during a traders own market hours. Besides liquidity a currency pairs trading range is also heavily dependent on geographical location and macroeconomic factors. Knowing what time of day a currency pair has the highest or narrowest trading volatility will undoubtedly help traders improve their investment utility due to better capital allocation. 1. Overlap between two sessions Generally whenever there is an overlap in the market e.g Japan/London and London/Newyork Session there is always an amount of volatility that accompanies such period. For instance every morning during London Open session. Euro pairs are active and if you have a good strategy you could get 20-30 pips. 2. News Release Fundamentals drive the market. During News Release volatility is experienced and some pairs could move over 100 pips depending on the type of news. For example Non-Farm Payroll is the most volatile news release and dollar based currency pairs could move hundreds of pips in seconds. However trading news is risky if you are not knowledgeable about it. 3. Central Bank Govenors Speech Speeches from these guys could make pairs go hundreds of pips and even change market sentiment with eects lasting into months. However its risky to trade these speeches except you are subscribed to some feed/signal service and get the news before others. Top 3 events when maximum volatility happens: High volatility oers lucrative profit potentials to short-term traders. Lower volatility under 80 pips per day is better for risk-averse traders because there are less iregular market movements caused by aggressive intraday speculation. The importance of timing Section 03 | Forex timing

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01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 24:00 London EST time MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN New York Sidney Tokio Best time The best time of the week to trade forex According to research the biggest movement in the four major currency pairs EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF is observed on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. Fridays are busy as well but only until 12:00 PM and during the second half of the day the movements can be very unpredictable. The best time of the day to trade forex Download Forex Hero app to see the hours in your time zone € What Are the Best Times to Trade Forex Section 03 | Forex timing We strongly advice you to avoid all resources that tell you Forex market is a fairy-tale place where you can trade 24/7 The timing in forex trading is crucial The Forex market is open 24 hours a day but it is not active all this time In Forex trading money is made when the market is active when traders are bidding on the prices so it is crucial for you to learn about the most productive hours of the day and of the week for trading the forex There are three major trading sessions of the Forex market: London US and Tokyo session. The busiest times are when the sessions overlap as traders can then purchase currencies from dierent continents. The Forex market of London is usually the most active as it involves many countries of the European Union. The US market comes next so the time when the London session intersects with the US session usually provides the biggest returns. Expert traders consider 10 AM to be the best time as this is the period when the London market is preparing to close the trades and traders are getting ready to move to US market. This creates big swings in currency prices thus opening great opportunities for profit.

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Save your money and keep your nerves by not trading at the wrong time. While it is crucial to understand when is the best time to analyze the charts and make the bids it is equally important to know when NOT to open positions. An inactive oen called “thin” market oers smaller movements of rates thus smaller potential profits. A thin market also comes with higher commissions spreads for each trade due to the decreased liquidity. In simple words: if you want to sell a currency it is harder to find potential buyers so the broker or bank must increase the commission as it takes a risk of not finding a buyer so quickly. A good example of chaotic trading is shortly before during and shortly aer important news events. In these times of uncertainty the currency rates can swing wildly and unpredictably thus messing up trading by creating execution lags triggering stop-loss orders etc. So here are some examples of when you should at least be careful when trading: When NOT to trade forex Section 03 | Forex timing End of December Trading session closing time Important news events When angry or frustrated Overnight Friday aernoon weekends Primetime TV events Bank holidays Asian sessions If you want to know the WHY behind these points - download the forex hero app here. 4 5 2 1 3 6 7 8 9

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Why do spreads widen/tighten In a well-functioning financial market where prices are dictated by various market participants and not by a single entity/market maker instruments do not have fixed bid/ask spreads. Usually the higher the liquidity the lower the volatility and therefore the tighter the spread Spread is like a commission that you pay for the trade. So highly liquid currency majors such as EUR/USD and USD/JPY have tighter spreads than exotic pairs such as USD/RUB or USD/ZAR. However even major pairs can experience wider than normal spreads during volatile periods such as interest rates announcements GDP reports unemployment figures to name a few examples. There will also be wider spreads during o market hours when there is only a fraction of the participants in the market so the liquidity is lower. This can be seen when the markets open for the Asian session at 21:00 GMT Sunday for example. This widening occurs typically around news announcements or o-market hours. Most forex brokers allow you to trade all weekend but spreads will be significantly wider during weekends when liquidity is almost non-existent. Dealing desk or market making brokers are going to widen their spreads coming into economic announcements to oset the risk they take on by filling orders. Unfortunately banks do the same thing so an average forex broker could be better but only marginally. What happens before or during important announcements. The volatility jumps before important anouncements and the drastic movements can hit the stop-losses resulting in a lost trade and investment. When why do spreads tighten Section 03 | Forex timing you go long on eur/usd stop-loss level wild swings based on rumours etc. Fed announcement

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A pro trader about hitting stop loss when spreads widen This is not so much of a problem for me as I dont use stops for exits just emergency measure that generally never gets hit. So I generally close the position or wait out the increased spread unless it is really pumping. If you do use stops for exits just be aware of your stop size as you will have to widen it just before news announcement if you dont want to get taken out at the exact place you had predicted would serve as S/R hence your stop placement just below this level. This should not be a problem if you are trading the higher time frames as your stop will probably be quite large and so increasing it by 5 or 10 pips probably wont be too significant risk increase better yet - factor in the widened spread when you calculate your position size as you know that if the trade works out you will be holding for a few days or more in which time there will be anouncements . If you cant be at your computer when the news anuncement hits I would suggest leaving your stop wider for the periods that you cant manage the trade unless there are no announcements over that period. If you are trading lower time frames however your stops will inevitably be smaller and the increase in stop size may substantially increase your risk. In this case you may have to decide to close the position before the anouncment or close enough of the position so that the increased stop will equal the same loss as the originally intended loss. But make no mistake - you will have to widen your stop. The spread will get you. Even if the announcement is in your favour price generally whips up and down at least a few pips before taking direction. If your stop is anywhere near price just prior to news chances are you will be taken out not matter what the result. Just be aware of the anouncement times and factor this in when deciding wether or not to take a trade. How to trade during the news events Section 03 | Forex timing Real-life example of a killed stop-loss order due to the volatilty of a news event

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SECTION 04 TIME FRAMES ¤

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Multiple time frame analysis Section 04 | Time frames time X time X Let us look at a daily graph. What do most traders do when they see such a curve They assume that it’s the beginning of a downward trend and bid on the drop of the currency exchange rate. And they’re wrong Now let’s look at the same currency over a longer period of time. We see that the daily shi was inconsequential to the long-term tendency as it is upward and not the other way around. Multiple time frame analysis The market can be analysed in several time frames: 10 minutes hours days weeks. It may oen seem that these indicators are contradictory. However they aren’t you just need to combine their readings. Analyses of longer time periods show tendencies ignoring accidental changes whereas daily hourly ir minute graphs help in choosing the moment to open and close positions. For successful and precise market analysis you must use at least 2-3 time frames Example Conclusion November 3 10 17 24 1500 1550 1600 Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec 1300 1600 1900

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Time frame choice of pros Section 04 | Time frames The shortest time frame that traders should start looking at when their trading day starts are daily charts even if you are trading on a 5-minute time frame The most common form of multiple time frame analysis is to use daily charts to identify the overall trend and then use the hourly charts to determine specific entry levels. Is it possible to analyze and trade forex using a single time frame It’s possible but it requires a very good amount of skill and practice. As a matter of principle all good traders I know use 2–3 time frames 3 being the best spaced enough so that each timeframe above encompasses 4–8 bars from the lower time frame. In example: Month Week Day Day 6h 1h or Day 4h 1h / 30m and so on. Those who can perform an analysis on one time frame are those who have got a lot of “screen time” and became trained at understanding the long term price motions by looking at a lower time frame chart. It’s plenty possible but personally it took me 2 years to learn that. Even then I prefer to switch to the other time frames to be really sure about what to do. 1 DAY 1HOUR

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SECTION 05 FUNDAMENTAL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ¤

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What is Fundamental Analysis Fundamental analysis studies the core underlying elements that influence the economy of a particular entity like a stock or currency. It attempts to predict price action and trends by analyzing economic indicators government policy societal and other factors within a business cycle framework. If you think of the markets as a big clock fundamentals are the gears and springs that move the hands around the face. Anyone can tell you what time it is now but the fundamentalist knows about the inner workings that move the clocks hands towards times or prices in the future. What is Technical Analysis Unlike fundamental analysis technical analysis focuses on the study of price movements. Technical analysts use historical currency data to forecast the direction of future prices. The underlying belief behind technical analysis is that all current market information is already reflected in the price of that currency therefore studying price action is all that is required to make informed trading decisions. In a nutshell technical analysis assumes that history will repeat itself. Beware of "Analysis Paralysis" Forecasting models are both art and science with so many dierent approaches that traders can get overloaded. It can be tough to decide when you know enough to pull the trigger on a trade with confidence. Many traders switch to technical analysis at this point to test their hunches and see when price patterns suggest an entry. Look for Fundamental Drivers First The fundamentals include everything that makes a country and its currency tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Fundamental Tecnhical analysis Section 05 | Fundamental technical analysis

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No one will ever win the age-long battle between technical and fundamental analysis. Prior to the mid-1980s fundamental traders dominated the FX market. However with the advent of new technologies the influence of technical trading on the FX market has increased significantly. Nowadays the best strategies tend to be the ones that combine both fundamental and technical analysis. Textbook perfect technical formations have failed too oen because of major fundamental news and events like U.S. nonfarm payrolls. But trading on fundamentals alone can also be risky. There will oentimes be sharp gyrations in the price of currency on a day when there are no news or economic reports. This suggests that the price action is driven by nothing more than flows sentiment and pattern formations. Therefore it is very important for technical traders to be aware of the key economic data or events that are scheduled for release and in turn for fundamental traders to be aware of important technical levels that the general market may be focusing on. Most individual traders will start trading with technical analysis because for some it is easier to understand and does not require hours of news and fact checking. Technical analysts can also follow many currencies and markets at one time whereas fundamental analysts tend to focus on a few pairs due to the overwhelming amount of data in the market. Nonetheless technical analysis works well because the currency market tends to develop strong trends. Once technical analysis is mastered it can be applied with equal ease to any time frame or currency traded. However as we already noted - it is important to take both strategies into consideration as fundamental analysis can trigger technical movements such as breakouts or reversal in trends. Technical analysis on the other hand can also explain moves that fundamentals cannot especially in quiet markets causing resistance in trends or unexplainable movements. Which analysis is better Section 05 | Fundamental technical analysis

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While many of Wang’s peers have embraced computer-driven strategies in an attempt to gain an edge the former iron-ore importer says his trades are dictated by old-fashioned analysis of supply and demand. Wang who started trading futures in 2008 said he supplements his fundamental analysis of commodities supply and demand with simple forms of technical analysis. One of his favorite measures is the 30-day moving average. When prices move above that level he’s more inclined to bet on gains. Wang had recently been betting on higher commodity prices encouraged by signs that President Xi Jinping’s government would take measures to tackle oversupply. But he closed out the last of those positions on Wednesday responding to local speculation that producers of coke and coking coal will be allowed to ramp up production. Wang Bing’s Guli Trend Aggressive Strategy fund has made a 2100 profit from smart commodity trading. Responds to speculation Commodity trader Wang relies on simple supply demand How pros evaluate the market Section 05 | Fundamental technical analysis Example

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SECTION 06 CURRENCIES ¤

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Currency nicknames Section 06 | Currencies Greenback or Buck - U.S. Dollar Sterling - British Pound Cable - British Pound / U.S. Dollar pair Single currency or Fiber - Euro Swissy - Swiss Franc Loonie - Canadian Dollar Aussie or Ozzie - Australian Dollar Kiwi - New Zealand Dollar Barnie - U.S. Dollar / British Pound pair Betty - Euro / Russian Rubble Guppy or Gopher - British Pound / Japanese Yen pair Euppy pronounced Yuppy - Euro / Japanese Yen pair Ninja - U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen pair Chunnel - Euro / British Pound pair

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Newer traders should start with following only the four major currency pairs which are the EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF and the GBP/USD and then gradually add the AUD/USD USD/CAD and NZD/USD followed by the non-dollar pairs. beginners should start with these EUR/USD Which currencies should I trade Section 06 | Currencies AUD/USD USD/CAD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD NZD/USD 1 2 3 4 Then Then Non-dollar pairs Then

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Ruble Brent crude oil The free-floating ruble follows the Brent price in almost-perfect lockstep. The commodity currencies are currencies from countries that possess large quantities of commodities or other natural resources. Natural resources oen constitute the majority of the countries exports and the strength of the economy its currency can be highly dependent on the prices of these natural resources. These correlations makes them easier to trade. Here is why there is such a dependancy: Russian GDP Vs Oil price in ruble rub Commodity currencies Section 06 | Currencies RUB/USD Brent oil price Russian nGDP Oil price in ruble

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When Gold Goes Up the USD Oen Goes Down and Vice Versa Historically gold is a "safe haven" - a country-neutral investment and an alternative to the worlds other reserve currency the U.S. dollar. That means gold prices tend to have an inverse relationship to the USD oering several ways for currency traders to take advantage of that relationship. For example if gold breaks an important price level youd expect gold to move higher. With this in mind you might sell dollars and buy Euros for example as a proxy for higher gold prices. Dollar gains 5 Oil falls 10-25 Oil is particularly leveraged to the dollar and may fall 10 percent to 25 percent if the currency gains 5 percent Morgan Stanley analysts including Adam Longson said in a research note dated Jan. 11 2016. USD/CAD Oil prices Canada is considered the 2nd largest exporter of oil in the world second only to Saudi Arabia hence its currency is reliant on this commodity. It also supplies the world’s biggest oil consumer – the United States. Because the US is largely dependent on oil the rise and fall of the commodity will have an eect not only on the Canadian Dollar but also on the US Dollar – the higher the price of oil the higher benefits Canada gets and the more disadvantaged the US becomes. In currency exchange the higher the oil prices are the lower the USD/CAD value will be. Rising Gold Prices boost AUD and CAD Australia is the worlds third largest exporter of gold and Canada is the third largest producer worldwide. These two major currencies tend to strengthen as gold prices rise. You might consider going long these currencies when gold is increasing in value or trade your GBP or JPY for these currencies when gold is on the rise. AUD CAD Commodity currencies Section 06 | Currencies

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SECTION 07 HOW FOREX INFLUENCES BUSINESS ¤

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1 move in the EURUSD rate reduces profits by EUR7 million Monitoring exchange rates is essential to predicting earnings and corporate profitability. Throughout 2003 and 2004 European manufacturers complained extensively about the rapid rise in the euro and the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The main reason for the dollars sello at the time was the countrys rapidly growing trade and budget deficits. This caused the EURUSD exchange rate to surge which took a significant toll on the profitability of European corporations because a higher exchange rate makes the goods of European exporters more expensive to U.S. consumers. In 2003 inadequate hedging shaved approximately EUR1 billion euros from Volkswagens profits while DSM a Dutch chemicals group warned that a 1 move in the EURUSD rate would reduce profits by EUR7 million to EUR11 million. Unfortunately inadequate hedging is still a reality in Europe which makes monitoring the EURUSD exchange rate even more important in forecasting the earnings and profitability of European exporters. Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Moves Wiley Trading by Kathy Lien. Why one should monitor the EURUSD Section 07 | How forex influences business

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As ruble loses half its value russians make quick money by re-exporting cars Thanks to the ruble’s depreciation prices of cars sold in Russia turned out to be cheaper than on foreign markets. The price dierence in Russia and abroad made the re-export of cars from Russia lucrative. Seizing on currency disparities Russians made quick money by re-exporting the vehicles which got so cheap in ruble terms that selling them back - sometimes to the same country that manufactured them in the first place - became a way to make a good profit. How Australians lost their farms in the forex In the early 1980s Australian farmers desperate for finance plunged into the forex market snapping up low-interest loans denominated in Swiss francs. But the loans essentially a bet on the Aussie dollar remaining strong against the franc went horribly wrong when the dollar plunged in 1985 and 1986 costing some borrowers their farms. to help you understand how forex market works Real-world business stories Section 07 | How forex influences business

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When yuan is weakening chinese citizens are buying properties abroad Motivated by a weakening yuan surging domestic housing costs and the desire to secure oshore footholds Chinese citizens are snapping up overseas homes at an accelerating pace. They’re also venturing further afield than ever before spreading beyond the likes of Sydney and Vancouver to lower-priced markets including Houston Thailand’s Pattaya Beach and Malaysia’s Johor Bahru. They are hoping to buy before the yuan weakens any further. Expectations are mounting for a higher Fed rate target boosting the appeal of holding dollars. Russian gem polisher benefits from weak rubble Maxim Shkadov who runs Kristall Russia’s biggest gem polisher and a major exporter says the weak ruble - it’s lost half of its value since oil began to slide in 2014 - slashed his local costs in dollar terms. “We don’t have any problems getting loans because banks have plenty of cash and can’t find anywhere to put it ” he says. But demand for his diamonds is weak so he’s paying down debt not adding to it Shkadov says. to help you understand how forex market works Real-world business stories Section 07 | How forex influences business

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How China became the biggest investor in the U.S. Chinese Yuan Renminbi RMB was pegged to the U.S. dollar. In the 1980s the RMB was devalued to promote growth in Chinas economy and between 1997 and 2005 the Peoples Bank of China artificially maintained a USDRMB rate of 8.27. At the time it received significant criticism because keeping the peg meant that the Chinese government would artificially weaken its currency to make Chinese goods more competitive. To maintain the band the Chinese government had to sell the yuan and buy U.S. dollars each time their currency appreciated above the bands upper limit. These dollars were then used to purchase U.S. Treasuries and this practice turned China into the worlds largest holder of U.S. Treasuries. to help you understand how forex market works Real-world stories Section 07 | How forex influences business

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SECTION 08 RISK MANAGEMENT ¤

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Why traders lose money Section 08 | Risk management Most traders lose money simply because they have no understanding or place no importance in risk management. Risk management involves essentially knowing how much you are willing to risk and how much you are looking to gain. Without a sense of risk management most traders simply hold on to losing positions for an extremely long amount of time but take profits on winning positions prematurely. There are a few key guidelines that every trader regardless of their strategy or what they are trading should keep in mind. Pros recommend 1:2 risk-reward ratio and not risking more than 2 of your equity on any single trade. Risk-reward ratio Traders should look to establish a risk-reward ratio for every trade they place. In other words they should have an idea of how much they are willing to lose and how much they are looking to gain. Generally the risk-reward ratio should be at least 1:2 if not more. Having a solid risk-reward ratio can prevent traders from entering positions that ultimately are not worth the risk. Stop-loss orders Traders should also employ stop-loss orders as a way of specifying the maximum loss they are willing to accept. By using stop-loss orders traders can avoid the common predicament of being in a scenario where they have many winning trades but a single loss large enough to eliminate any trace of profitability in the account. Trailing stops to lock in profits are particularly useful. A good habit of more successful traders is to employ the rule of moving your stop to break even as soon as your position has profited by the same amount that you initially risked through the stop order. At the same time some traders may also choose to close a portion of their position.

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An essential mistake beginners make is closing the transaction too soon and thus not taking advantage of the full profit potential. Trends last longer than they might seem at first 6 Don’t stop the profit Transactions against a trend usually result in loss. Wait for a beneficial tendency and then make your move 7 Don’t play against the trend If you still aren’t confident about your decisions choose a platform that lets you follow leaders and copy their transactions. 8 If in doubt follow the leader Don’t hold unsuccessful positions open for a long time. Experience shows that it’s best to close them early and move on to others. Close the unsuccessful 9 10 Trends have momentum Don’t open many positions at the same time. It’s better to choose fewer positions but weigh each of them carefully. 1 Start gradually People oen forget to limit their loss and therefore have to step out of the game very soon. With the Stop-Loss Order you will be able to control the situation even if the rates change unexpectedly. 2 Stop-Loss order Specialists advise against risking more than 1/6 of your free capital when you aren’t completely confident. 3 Rule of 1/6 Dierentiate the time frames of analysis. Weekly graphs are used to observe trends while daily and hourly graphs are best used to observe the best time to open and close positions. Multiple time frames Each good trader has their own plan and the best traders make an eort to hold onto it. Those who have the time make daily transactions others choose long-term strategies. Keep it steady 4 5 Stick to the plan Beginners oen don’t know that when trends start they develop quickly because they are increased by the number of traders following them. Use trends in your favour 10 tips from the pros Section 08 | Risk management

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An essential mistake beginners make is closing the transaction too soon and thus not taking advantage of the full profit potential. Trends last longer than they might seem at first Beginners oen don’t know that when trends start they develop quickly because they are increased by the number of traders following them. Use trends in your favour SECTION 08 TOOLS USED BY PRO TRADERS ¤

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1. Ransquawk You are serious about becoming a forex trader. Do you know which tools to use Here are the three most popular tools: 2. eSignal Stock Charting Soware Best Day Trading Platform. Live 24/7 news text audio covering all major pairs and crosses. Tools for analysis and trading https://ransquawk.com/ http://www.esignal.com/ 3. Oanda news Forex market commentary and analysis statistics and more. https://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/news/ 3 2 1 Free 47/month - 309/month £20/month - £150/month

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1. Trading in the Zone: Master the Market with Confidence Discipline and a Winning Attitude. By Mark Douglas. 2. Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Second Edition. By Steve Nison. 3. Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis: How to Profit from the Shiing Currents in Global Markets. By Ashraf Laïdi. 4. Trading for a Living: Psychology Trading Tactics Money Management. By Alexander Elder. 5. The Disciplined Trader: Developing Winning Attitudes. By Mark Douglas 6. Naked Forex: High-Probability Techniques for Trading Without Indicators. By Alex Nekritin. 7. Trading Price Action Trends: Technical Analysis of Price Charts Bar by Bar for the Serious Trader. By Al Brooks. 8. Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market: Technical and Fundamental Strategies to Profit from Market Moves Wiley Trading by Kathy Lien. 9. Forex For Ambitious Beginners: A Guide to Successful Currency Trading. By Jelle Peters. 10. The 10 Essentials of Forex Trading: The Rules for Turning Trading Patterns Into Profit. By Jared Martinez. 11. Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Are Beating Wall Street at Its Own Game. By Kathy Lien Boris Schlossberg. 12. 7 Winning Strategies For Trading Forex: Real and actionable techniques for profiting from the currency markets. By Grace Cheng. 13. Forex Patterns and Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending and Range-Bound Markets. By Ed Ponsi. 14. https://www.tradeking.com/forex/economic_indicators.htm 15.http://www.babypips.com/school/undergraduate/freshman-year/trading-the-news/trading-with-a-directiona l-bias.html References

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To take your skills to the next level download the free learning app here. No real money needed. No risk involved. Congratulations and thanks for reading ¤

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