Presentation Transcript
Slide1: Peter Willis
Southern African Director Why Non-Motorized Transport
is About to Step Out of the Shadows
22nd February 2007
Slide2: Building the capacity of society’s leaders to respond creatively to changing global circumstances, needs and expectations.
Slide3: Senior Executive Seminars on Sustainability and Business
Organised Each Year in
Cambridge, Cape Town, Salzburg,
New York, California, Sydney
by
Slide4: Reasons to Promote
Non-Motorized Transport
Slide5: Pennsylvania, 1859 Horse
Slide6: 40 yrs
Global Oil Discoveries: Global Oil Discoveries ExxonMobil 2003 GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION 40 yrs?
Slide8: Source: IEA
Slide9: Source: ASPO
www.peakoil.net 2006
Slide10: Source: ASPO $???
If you can’t find it, make it!: If you can’t find it, make it! Gas to Liquids
Coal to Liquids
Ethanol blends
Slide12: Fresh investments in conventional oil
“Non-conventional oils”
Can they fill the gap?
Slide13: CLIMATE CHANGE
Slide14: The last 160,000 years and the next 100 years CO2 and Temperature: Time (thousands of years) 160 120 80 40 Now –10 0 10 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 CO 2 in 2100 ?? (with business as usual) CO 2 now Temperature difference from now °C CO 2 concentration ( ppmv ) 800,000yr peak First record of modern humans * stabilisation level by 2100 Lowest possible CO 2
Slide18: Source: IPCC, 2005
Slide19: Last 150 years = + 0,7 degrees C To avoid catastrophic climate change:
keep below + 2,0 degrees C Plus already “in the system” = + 0,5 degrees C
We must all go on a carbon diet: We must all go on a carbon diet
“You first ...” “No, after you …”: “You first ...” “No, after you …”
Slide22: NMT
Slide23: AUTO
DEPENDENCE CONGESTION ROAD
BUILDING ACCIDENTS ENERGY
CONSUMPTION POLLUTION/GHG HEALTH
DECLINE SUBURBAN
SPRAWL SLUMS
SPRAWL INCREASED
TRAVEL TIMES REDUCED ACCESS TO
PUBLIC TRANSPORT PUBLIC TRANSPORT
DISINVESTMENT REDUCED ACCESS
TO OPPORTUNITY SOCIAL INEQUALITY-
FRUSTRATION CRIME/THEFT
INSECURITY
Slide24: UNDERWAY IN:
Bremen, Germany
Toronto, Canada
Cambridge, U.S.
Shanghai, China
Cities of South Africa?
“shift happens”
Slide28: moving people
moving goods
moving less
moving minds
moving money
Slide29:
World leaders in integrated, low carbon urban transport
First Movers in the global New Mobility Industry Sector
| CITIES OF SOUTH AFRICA (World Cup as Catalyst)
Thank You & Enjoy the Conference !: Thank You & Enjoy the Conference ! Peter Willis
peter.willis@cpi.cam.ac.uk