11h00 Willis

Slide1: 

Peter Willis Southern African Director Why Non-Motorized Transport is About to Step Out of the Shadows 22nd February 2007

Slide2: 

Building the capacity of society’s leaders to respond creatively to changing global circumstances, needs and expectations.

Slide3: 

Senior Executive Seminars on Sustainability and Business Organised Each Year in Cambridge, Cape Town, Salzburg, New York, California, Sydney by

Slide4: 

Reasons to Promote Non-Motorized Transport

Slide5: 

Pennsylvania, 1859 Horse

Slide6: 

40 yrs

Global Oil Discoveries: 

Global Oil Discoveries ExxonMobil 2003 GLOBAL OIL PRODUCTION 40 yrs?

Slide8: 

Source: IEA

Slide9: 

Source: ASPO www.peakoil.net 2006

Slide10: 

Source: ASPO $???

If you can’t find it, make it!: 

If you can’t find it, make it! Gas to Liquids Coal to Liquids Ethanol blends

Slide12: 

Fresh investments in conventional oil “Non-conventional oils” Can they fill the gap?

Slide13: 

CLIMATE CHANGE

Slide14: 

The last 160,000 years and the next 100 years CO2 and Temperature: Time (thousands of years) 160 120 80 40 Now –10 0 10 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 CO 2 in 2100 ?? (with business as usual) CO 2 now Temperature difference from now °C CO 2 concentration ( ppmv ) 800,000yr peak First record of modern humans * stabilisation level by 2100 Lowest possible CO 2

Slide18: 

Source: IPCC, 2005

Slide19: 

Last 150 years = + 0,7 degrees C To avoid catastrophic climate change: keep below + 2,0 degrees C Plus already “in the system” = + 0,5 degrees C

We must all go on a carbon diet: 

We must all go on a carbon diet

“You first ...”“No, after you …”: 

“You first ...” “No, after you …”

Slide22: 

NMT

Slide23: 

AUTO DEPENDENCE CONGESTION ROAD BUILDING ACCIDENTS ENERGY CONSUMPTION POLLUTION/GHG HEALTH DECLINE SUBURBAN SPRAWL SLUMS SPRAWL INCREASED TRAVEL TIMES REDUCED ACCESS TO PUBLIC TRANSPORT PUBLIC TRANSPORT DISINVESTMENT REDUCED ACCESS TO OPPORTUNITY SOCIAL INEQUALITY- FRUSTRATION CRIME/THEFT INSECURITY

Slide24: 

UNDERWAY IN: Bremen, Germany Toronto, Canada Cambridge, U.S. Shanghai, China Cities of South Africa? “shift happens”

Slide28: 

moving people moving goods moving less moving minds moving money

Slide29: 

World leaders in integrated, low carbon urban transport First Movers in the global New Mobility Industry Sector | CITIES OF SOUTH AFRICA (World Cup as Catalyst)

Thank You & Enjoy the Conference !: 

Thank You & Enjoy the Conference ! Peter Willis peter.willis@cpi.cam.ac.uk