AeroSpace Workshop JK mods

The Aero/Space Economy in North Carolina: 

The Aero/Space Economy in North Carolina Developing a Strategic Approach Involving the Public and Private Sectors Support for this workshop is provided to the NC Space Initiative from the NCSU Office of Extension and Engagement and the Kenan Institute for Engineering, Technology & Science.

North Carolina Space Initiative: 

North Carolina Space Initiative To establish networks to facilitate collaborative projects Fundamental and applied space Research Education in space science, engineering, business, and policy Outreach and engagement To compete for NASA / other funding To apply space technology to issues of concern to our state and region To promote space-related Commerce in our state  

Purpose of the Aero/Space Economy Workshop: 

Purpose of the Aero/Space Economy Workshop NCSU Extension and Engagement Grant Gather the necessary economic intelligence regarding the Aero/Space cluster in NC Develop ideas and identify resources for a subsequent comprehensive strategic assessment of the NC Aero/Space cluster Establish a network of individuals and institutions to work together on future projects

Agenda: 

Agenda 9:00 Welcome Dr. Chris Brown, Director of the North Carolina Space Initiative Dr. Ruben Carbonell, Director of the Kenan Institute for Engineering, Technology & Science 9:15 Purpose and Structure of the Workshop 9:30 Self Introductions 9:45 Cluster Development Activities at NCSU Dr. Ted Morris, Director of the NCSU Economic Development Partnership 10:00 The Aero/Space Economy – Old and New Mr. Jeff Krukin, Executive Director of the Space Frontier Foundation 10:30 Break  

Agenda (continued): 

Agenda (continued) 10:45 Intelligence Gathering – Existing Resources in North Carolina Mr. Raj Narayan, Associate Director of the Kenan Institute for Engineering, Technology & Science 11:45 Lunch Welcome from Dr. John Gilligan, Vice Chancellor for Research and Graduate Studies  12:30 Intelligence Gathering (continued)  1:00 Small Group Breakout  2:00 Small Group Reports, Summary, Next Steps 3:00 Adjourn

Participants: 

Participants University Government (State, Federal) Industry Brief self-introductions Name Title and Affiliation What compelled you to attend this meeting?  

The “new Aero/Space” Economy is already being created… in other states: 

The “new Aero/Space” Economy is already being created… in other states NASA Awards $11M “Quantum Wire” Contract to Rice University (4/25/05) NASA has awarded Rice University's Carbon Nanotechnology Laboratory a four-year, $11 million contract to produce a prototype power cable made entirely of carbon nanotubes Space Elevator Group to Manufacture Nanotubes (4/27/05) The Liftport Group of space elevator companies has announced that it will be building a carbon nanotubes manufacturing plant in Millville, New Jersey, to supply various glass, plastic and metal companies with these strong materials. Although Liftport hopes to eventually use carbon nanotubes in the construction of a 100,000 km (62,000 mile) space elevator, this move will allow it to make money in the short term and conduct research and development into new production methods. Will Whitehorn, President, Virgin Galactic (testimony before the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics 4/20/05): “Our current plan is to begin operations in Mohave and then develop a second site in another location that could possibly be either Florida, Texas or New Mexico.”  

Context: where did the “old aerospace” industry come from?: 

  Oct. 1957: the Soviet Union roars into space with Sputnik 1 Nov. 1957: President Eisenhower announces sweeping changes at DOD giving top priority to missile and rocket projects July 28, 1960: NASA announces project Apollo w/o knowing how it will be implemented Next day: NASA’s Mercury-Atlas 1 disintegrates and falls into the ocean 58 seconds after launch Next four months: Test rocket Little Joe 5 joins M-A 1 in the ocean, Mercury-Redstone 1 lifts a fraction of an inch and falls back on the launch pad. July 20, 1969: When faced with a clear and present danger, government leadership & vision win the race Context: where did the “old aerospace” industry come from?

What exactly is “old aerospace” today?: 

What exactly is “old aerospace” today? Cold War poster child (Apollo about ideological conflict, not science and exploration) NASA, Boeing/LockheedMartin/NorthrupGrumman Federally-dominated civil space “program” Tax-payer funded Mired in complex cost-plus procurement bureaucracy Optimized for maintaining status quo rather than creating new industries

What does “old aerospace” look like in North Carolina?*: 

What does “old aerospace” look like in North Carolina?* Employment: 37,971 (20th of 50 states) Jobs per 1000 workers: 10 (34th of 50 states) Average industry wage: $41,035 (32nd of 50 states) State payroll: $1.6 Billion Top aerospace & aviation sectors: Air transportation Aircraft and parts manufacturing Search, detection, navigation Conclusion: Strong foundation for the emerging commercial Aero/Space Economy *Source: Walker, R, 2002. Final Report of the Commission on the Future of the United States Aerospace Industry. Commission on the Future of the United States Aerospace Industry, Arlington, VA  

Transition from government aerospace industry to commercial Aero/Space Economy: 

Transition from government aerospace industry to commercial Aero/Space Economy   “MACRO” trends (last 10-15 years) Result: Birth of a fledgling private sector, emerging from the shadow of government’s traditional domain Global 1996 commercial space industry revenues ($77B) surpass govt. expenditures COTS tools, hardware, and software provide what once required special manufacturing US GDP is four times what it was in 1960 Wealthiest individuals have assets exceeding $10 Billion Project Mercury (sub-orbital) < $1 Billion in today’s $$$ Privately developed SpaceShipOne (sub-orbital XPrize winner) cost $20 million

Transition from government aerospace industry to commercial Aero/Space Economy: 

Transition from government aerospace industry to commercial Aero/Space Economy   “MICRO” trends (2004) May “The President has accepted the notion that eventually humans will incorporate accessible space into their economic zone,” says John Marburger (Science Advisor to the President) June The Report of the President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy is released, and it emphasizes the importance of entrepreneurs and the research and education communities October Virgin Airways CEO Sir Richard Branson announces plan to purchase five spacecraft for commercial sub-orbital passenger flights beginning in 2007 December Congress passes the Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act, “To promote the development of the emerging commercial human space flight industry,…” December Robert Bigelow, owner of Budget Suites of America and Bigelow Aerospace, announces America’s Space Prize, a $50 million launch contest to spur development of a low-cost commercial manned orbital vehicle to carry passengers to Bigelow space habitats by 2010

What exactly is “new Aero/Space?”: 

Not just a Federal program and its major contractors Not just traditional aerospace companies What exactly is “new Aero/Space?” Modification of framework developed by Guillermo Sohnlein, International Assoc. of Space Entrepreneurs The Future of Orbital Commerce Tempur-Pedic®

Successful example of public/private sector economic development: 

Successful example of public/private sector economic development   Case 1: The Panama Canal Commission Private enterprise failure (1870-1901) Lack of sufficient capital Lack of rapid payback Unable to handle “surprises” Government Success Sufficient Capital Less time pressure Able to acquire the resources needed to do the job right, even with surprises Result Canal opened August 3, 1914 despite having to excavate 5 times as much soil as planned Courtesy of Prof. Thomas Matula, Ph.D., U. of Houston The Panama Canal cut global shipping costs and played a critical role in both World Wars

What might this look like in North Carolina?: 

What might this look like in North Carolina?   Comparison of NC Technology Clusters with Enabling Technologies for Space Exploration Technology Clusters in NC (1) -matches with- Space Enabling Technologies (2) Chemicals/plastics Advanced structures Pharm./medical technology Biomedical risk mitigation Industrial machinery Planetary in situ resource use Information tech./instruments Autonomous systems and robotics Information tech./instruments Scientific data collection/analysis Communication services/software High bandwidth communications Aerospace All 17 identified technologies (1) Tracking Innovation: North Carolina Innovation Index 2003. North Carolina Board of Science and Technology (2) Report of the Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy. President’s Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy, 2004 (aka, The Aldridge Report)

Slide16: 

A closer look “High-Tech Clusters in North Carolina,” NC Board of Science & Technology “The Economic Impact of Commercial Space Transportation on the US Economy: 2002 Results and Outlook for 2010,” FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation

Looking ahead to 2020 in North Carolina: 

Looking ahead to 2020 in North Carolina 2007 RTP opens the (nation’s first) corporate/academic Space Exploration Enabling Technologies R&D Institute 2009 Honda’s business aviation unit in Greensboro begins designing personal sub-orbital spacecraft, working closely with Triad-based aviation companies 2010 Virgin Galactic begins east coast space flights from North Carolina 2011 DHL begins trans-Atlantic sub-orbital cargo flights to Global TransPark (renamed the North Carolina Inter-modal Transportation Complex) 2013 Durham’s GE Transportation-Aircraft Engines facility begins manufacturing engines for small commercial hybrid air/space vehicles 2014 Ft. Bragg/Pope Air Force Base complex (“Home of the Airborne and Special Forces”) inaugurates space flight deployment 2015 NC State opens permanent North American International Space University campus 2020 NC State, UNC, and Duke universities operate first orbiting campus built with Bigelow Aerospace habitats

What is out there in NC (and elsewhere)?: 

What is out there in NC (and elsewhere)? Studies Companies University Initiatives Government Activities Organizations Other What resources exist to use in developing this strategic plan?  

Key Questions: 

Key Questions 1. How is NC positioned to contribute to and benefit from the aero/space economy? 2. What non-aero/space sectors will influence and benefit from this new economy and how? 3. What assets do we have in state government, commercial, academic and R&D sectors? 4. What pieces are missing from the state portfolio? 5. What models are out there for us to emulate as we develop a strategy for the state?

Next Steps: 

Next Steps Draft report on this meeting for the NCSU E&E office, share with participants Identify key players willing to cooperate on an NC Aero/Space strategy Identify sources of support for a comprehensive strategic assessment Perform strategic assessment