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Slide1: 

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Severe Weather Daniel Meléndez NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

Outline: 

Outline Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary

Severe WeatherTeam Composition: 

Severe Weather Team Composition Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST) Richard Okulski (NWS/OS) John Weaver (NESDIS) Don Burgess (OAR/NSSL) Robert Saffle (OST) Steve Weiss (SPC) Ron Przybylinski (WFO/STL) Dan Smith (SRH) Liz Quoetone (WDTB) John Ferree (WDTB) David Sharp (WFO/MLB) Terry Schuur (OAR/NSSL) Brian Motta (NWS/OCWWS) Bard Zajac (U. No. Co.)

Severe WeatherVision / Benefits: 

Severe Weather Vision / Benefits 2025 Vision Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond Tornadic Lifetimes ( 30 min) at 1-km resolution Save Lives Increased Lead Times Enables Necessary Actions to Minimize Impact of Severe Local Storms Millions in Savings to Transportation & Similar Industries

Severe WeatherGoals/Targets to FY 12: 

Severe Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12

Severe Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12: 

Severe Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12

Severe WeatherKey Information Gaps: 

Severe Weather Key Information Gaps Higher Resolution and Density Storm-Scale Data Improved Specification and Forecasting of Pre-Storm Environment Improved Specification and Forecasting of Boundaries Improved Understanding and Specification of Severe Weather Signatures Improved Verification

Slide8: 

Severe Weather Key S&T Solutions

Slide9: 

Severe Weather Key S&T Solutions

Severe Weather Key S&T SolutionsCurrent Programmatic Phase: 

Severe Weather Key S&T Solutions Current Programmatic Phase *Dual Pol WRF Ensembles Deployment OTE DTE R&D Observations DA/Models Satellite Remote Sensing SCAN+ *ORPG/Finer and FasterVCPs/ORDA/TDWR+ Enabling Process *Training PDT Training WES *Severe Weather R&D MDCRS Water Vapor/EDR

Severe WeatherOutstanding R&D Needs: 

Severe Weather Outstanding R&D Needs Improved Understanding of Tornado Formation Improved Understanding of Severe Weather Meteorology Objective Verification Improved Cloud-Scale Models Improved Situational Awareness Tools and Training Improved Understanding of Total Lightning Data in Severe Weather Forecasting Improved Understanding of Radar Polarimetry in Severe Weather Forecasting Improved Understanding of Predictability Limits Improved Understanding of Socioeconomic Impact

Severe Weather Summary: 

Severe Weather Summary R&D Needs Tornadogenesis R&D on severe weather Objective verification Cloud-scale models Situational awareness tools and training R&D on total lightning data and radar polarimetry data Predictability Limits Improved Understanding on Socioeconomic Impact WSR88D Radar Upgrades TDWR integration WES/Training MDCRS Implement WRF Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques Dual Polarization New Satellite Remote Sensing Enhanced Training Vision Increasing Performance R&D 2007 2012 2020 2002 Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond Tornadic Lifetimes ( 30 min) at 1-km resolution

Severe WeatherSummary: 

Severe Weather Summary Severe weather warning and detection FY07 improvements will be driven by observational (radar) increases in resolution and coverage Need continued training and severe weather research as part of threshold progress Improved verification is critical to overall progress FAR is a consequence of verification accuracy so emphasis should be on detection Synoptic forecasting models on track

Severe Weather: 

BACKGROUND SLIDES Severe Weather

Severe WeatherWhy FAR May Be at High Risk?: 

WSR-88D Lesson: New technologies temporarily raise POD at the expense of FAR Long-term FAR reduction trails POD increase Severe Weather Why FAR May Be at High Risk?

Slide18: 

Descriptive Statistics: Constant = -131.1915 Coefficient = 0.0708 Rsqr = 0.053 U95 Trend Actual L95 T-value for slope = 0.53 2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57

Slide19: 

Descriptive Statistics: Constant = 10.0956 Coefficient = -0.0047 Rsqr = 0.127 T-value for slope = -0.85 2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57 U95 Trend Actual L95

Slide20: 

Descriptive Statistics: Constant = -31.8362 Coefficient = .0163 Rsqr = 0.623 T-value for slope = 2.87 2-tailed t-test 95% CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom = 2.57 U95 Trend Actual L95

Vision 2025 – Storm Scale Modeling: 

Vision 2025 – Storm Scale Modeling

Severe WeatherPrimary Customers/Partners: 

Severe Weather Primary Customers/Partners

Severe WeatherKey Products/Services: 

Severe Weather Key Products/Services

Severe WeatherS & T Roadmap: 

Severe Weather S & T Roadmap (Insert Spreadsheet)