2007 Difiglio

REDUCING THE GROWTH OF MOTOR VEHICLE CO2 EMISSIONS THROUGH 2050: EFFICIENCY, LOW-EMISSION FUELS AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES: 

REDUCING THE GROWTH OF MOTOR VEHICLE CO2 EMISSIONS THROUGH 2050: EFFICIENCY, LOW-EMISSION FUELS AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES Carmen Difiglio U.S. Department of Energy (carmen.difiglio@hq.doe.gov) Erice Seminars on Planetary Emergencies August 20, 2007

Five Approaches to Reducing CO2 Emissions in Motor Vehicles: 

Five Approaches to Reducing CO2 Emissions in Motor Vehicles Improve fuel efficiency on current-technology vehicles. Introduce new vehicle concepts that have lower emissions. Substitute gasoline and diesel fuel with lower-emission fuels. Shift to lower-emission travel modes. Reduce travel.

Examples of IncrementalImprovements and their Cost: 

Examples of Incremental Improvements and their Cost

Main Advanced Concepts: 

Main Advanced Concepts Hybrid Vehicles (now commercialized) “Toyota” system hybrids (2 or 4 electric motors) provide ~40% fuel savings and cost ~ $5,000. “Honda” system hybrids (1 motor) provide ~30% fuel savings and cost ~ $3,000 (more cost-effective). Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (under development) Plug-ins offer some degree of electric-vehicle operation with substantial cost increase for additional batteries. Electric Vehicles Probably niche markets due to limited energy density. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (longer term) Other Alternative Fuel or Fuel Flexible Vehicles

Lower Emission Fuels: 

Lower Emission Fuels Cellulosic Ethanol (~ 90% reduction) Biodiesel Fuel (~ 70% reduction) Ethanol from sugar (~ 60% reduction) Hydrogen (100% reduction to increased emissions depending on energy source and end-use efficiency) Electricity (100% reduction to increased emissions depending on energy source and end-use efficiency) Compressed Natural Gas (~ 30% reduction) Liquefied Natural Gas (~ 20% reduction) Ethanol from Corn (~ 20% reduction) Liquefied Petroleum Gas (~ 20% reduction) Methanol (< 10% reduction) Gas-to-Liquids (5% higher; lower with CCS) Coal-to-Liquids (110% higher; ~ 2% higher with CCS)

GHG Impacts of Alternative Fuels(2000 U.S. Data): 

GHG Impacts of Alternative Fuels (2000 U.S. Data)

Hydrogen Production Costs(Gas Reforming the Least Expensive – Solar the Most Expensive): 

Hydrogen Production Costs (Gas Reforming the Least Expensive – Solar the Most Expensive)

Barriers to the Uptake of H2 Vehiclesby 2050: 

Barriers to the Uptake of H2 Vehicles by 2050 Fuel cells need to cost ~ $50/kW to be competitive. On board H2 is an unsolved problem (low energy density implies limited vehicle range between refueling). Infrastructure investment for vehicles, fuel production and fuel distribution are all extremely high. Without government intervention, vehicle manufacturers, fuel producers and fuel distributors face substantial investment risk (coordinated investment needed). Low-emission sources of H2 are expensive and would be best used to decarbonize the electric power sector first. Nonetheless, many governments (e.g., U.S., Japan, E.U.) have significant programs to overcome these barriers. Why? Fuel cell H2 vehicles still appear to offer the best long-term option to fully decarbonize transport.

Biofuels Trends: 

Biofuels Trends Biofuels use is growing rapidly around the world due to market forces and government policies. The cost-effectiveness of biofuels GHG reductions is improving due to higher oil prices. Sugar ethanol GHG reductions are essentially free. Advanced biofuels processes could provide greater GHG reductions and use non-food feedstocks. Global biofuels potential appears substantial and free trade could benefit many less-developed countries.

Energy Technology Perspectives Model: 

Energy Technology Perspectives Model Hydrogen production Industry Residential/ commercial Electricity production Refineries Transport Heating Cooling Power Moving etc. Gasoline Natural gas Electricity Coke Hydrogen Heat etc. Renewables Fossil fuels Nuclear Useful energy Primary energy Conversion sectors/processes Final energy Demand sectors/processes Coke ovens Heat production

Reference Case: Distribution ofCO2 Emissions from LDVs in 2000: 

Reference Case: Distribution of CO2 Emissions from LDVs in 2000

Reference Case: Distribution ofCO2 Emissions from LDVs in 2050: 

Reference Case: Distribution of CO2 Emissions from LDVs in 2050

Policy Actions Analyzed to ReduceCO2 Emissions In Motor Vehicles : 

Policy Actions Analyzed to Reduce CO2 Emissions In Motor Vehicles Fuel Economy/Advanced Technology Vehicles Establish or raise fuel efficiency standards. Alternatively use “feebates.” Subsidize the purchase of advanced technology vehicles. RD&D to develop improved advanced vehicles. CO2 taxes/value. Low Emission Fuels Establish mandates to use minimum levels of qualified low-emission fuels. Subsidize low-emission fuels or alt-fuel vehicles. RD&D to reduce the cost to produce low-emission fuels. CO2 taxes/value.

Fuel Economy Pays Off Without Considering Climate Benefits: 

Fuel Economy Pays Off Without Considering Climate Benefits This will have to be redone

CO2 Values Have to be High toInfluence Fuel Efficiency: 

CO2 Values Have to be High to Influence Fuel Efficiency

Reference Case: Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy [litres/100 km): 

Reference Case: Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy [litres/100 km)

Policy Scenario: Market Penetration of Biofuels: 

Policy Scenario: Market Penetration of Biofuels

Emissions Growth – Reference, High-Tech,Carbon Policy & Biofuels Scenarios: 

Emissions Growth – Reference, High-Tech, Carbon Policy & Biofuels Scenarios

Emissions Growth – Reference, High-Tech,Carbon Policy & Biofuels Scenarios: 

Emissions Growth – Reference, High-Tech, Carbon Policy & Biofuels Scenarios

CO2 Intensity – Reference, High-Tech,Carbon Policy & Biofuels Scenarios: 

CO2 Intensity – Reference, High-Tech, Carbon Policy & Biofuels Scenarios

Sustainable vs. UnsustainableBiofuels Development: 

Sustainable vs. Unsustainable Biofuels Development Biofuels should not be developed if they: Compromise food supplies and food aid. Replace rain forests and other CO2 sinks. Adversely affect bio-diversity. Deplete water supplies. All governments should adopt sustainability safeguards in their biofuels policies.

Example: Indonesian Palm Oil: 

Example: Indonesian Palm Oil Indonesia’s 1997-8 forest and peatland fires were equivalent to 40% of all global emissions from burning fossil fuels that year (Nature, November 7, 2002). 600 million tonnes of carbon released annually from draining peat for plantations Most Indonesian Palm Oil has net emissions through: 1. forest clearance 2. peat decomposition 3. both (where swamp forest is cleared for new oil palm plantations, as in areas of Riau and Jambi)

Biofuel Observations: 

Biofuel Observations Palm oil production in former rain forests do not provide net CO2 emission benefits except after 5-6 decades. Therefore, rain forest palm oil/sugar cane is a counterproductive GHG mitigation strategy (& it has a catastrophic impact on biodiversity). Available biomass resources can also be used to reduce emissions in the power generation sector. The current interest in biofuels is mainly driven by two factors: agricultural policies and oil security policies.

Conclusions: 

Conclusions Rapid growth of motor vehicles outside of EU and NA will increase motor vehicle emissions. Nonetheless, reducing this growth is necessary to combat higher GHG concentrations. We conclude that improving motor vehicle efficiency is the win-win GHG strategy. Advanced technologies combined with regulatory policies can significantly reduce the growth of motor vehicle emissions without imposing high taxes/values on CO2 emissions. CO2 taxes would have relatively small impacts on transport relative to other energy sectors.

BACKUP SLIDESREDUCING THE GROWTH OF MOTOR VEHICLE CO2 EMISSIONS THROUGH 2050: EFFICIENCY, LOW-EMISSION FUELS AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES: 

BACKUP SLIDES REDUCING THE GROWTH OF MOTOR VEHICLE CO2 EMISSIONS THROUGH 2050: EFFICIENCY, LOW-EMISSION FUELS AND ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES Carmen Difiglio U.S. Department of Energy Erice Seminars on Planetary Emergencies August 20, 2007

Reference Case: Distribution ofCO2 Emissions from Transport in 2000 & 2050: 

Reference Case: Distribution of CO2 Emissions from Transport in 2000 & 2050

High Plug-in Hybrid Scenario: 

High Plug-in Hybrid Scenario

CO2 Intensity with High Plug-InScenario: 

CO2 Intensity with High Plug-In Scenario

Power Sector Carbon Intensity: 

Power Sector Carbon Intensity

ETP Model Regions: 

ETP Model Regions OECD-Regions US Canada Mexico Western Europe Eastern Europe Japan Australia and New Zealand South Korea Non-OECD Regions FSU China India Rest of Asia Latin America Africa Middle East

Technology Choice in MARKAL: 

Technology Choice in MARKAL Technology Characteristics Energy Sources Used Efficiency Costs (Capital and O&M) Availability Energy Resources Cost and Availability Energy Service Demands By Sector/Region Other Assumptions Long-Term Discount Rate System Reserve Requirements Other Constraints Max. CO2 Emissions by Time Period Dynamic LP Optimization Technology Mix for Each Time Period That Satisfies Energy Demand Given Constraints

How Hybrids Work: 

How Hybrids Work Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) combine the benefits of gasoline engines and electric motors. They can be configured to obtain different objectives, such as improved fuel economy, increased power, or additional auxiliary power for electronic devices and power tools. Some of the advanced technologies typically used by hybrids include Regenerative Braking Electric Motor Drive/Assist Automatic Start/Shutoff

A Typical Hybrid Vehicle: 

A Typical Hybrid Vehicle