Growing Knowledge about Globalization (GKG): Growing Knowledge about Globalization (GKG) Observing Trade, 1980-2001 Kellogg Institute for International Studies University of Notre Dame October 6, 2005 Miguel Centeno, Sara R. Curran, John Galloway, Paulette Lloyd & Suresh Sood Princeton University, University of Washington, University of Technology Sydney & NetMap Analytics


Growing Knowledge about Globalization: Growing Knowledge about Globalization Who? A cross-national, multi-institutional collaboration What? Database, web-based interface for public access, and development of visualization tools How? Research, descriptive publications, teaching tools, and open access website When? Five-year effort from 2005-2010


GKG Projects and Products: GKG Projects and Products Observing Trade Tracking People Following the Money Transmitting Culture Surveying Institutions Reference Volumes Conferences Case Studies Website Statistical and Data Products


Some measures of Globalization:: Some measures of Globalization:


Slide5: Globalization is a process leading to greater interdependence and mutual awareness (reflexivity) among economic, political, and social units in the world, and among actors in general. Mauro Guillén 2001


Technology: Technology


Opening Borders: Opening Borders


Global Distribution of Wealth: Global Distribution of Wealth


Inequality: Inequality


Democratization: Democratization


Globalization is everywhere….: Globalization is everywhere…. Scholarly Mass Media


Globalization is a Black Box: Globalization is a Black Box Theory raced ahead of evidence Entrenched theoretical and public policy debates: Is it good or bad? Empirical evidence is uneven


Consequences of the….: Consequences of the…. Failure to understand the structure of globalization Failure to analyze interaction dynamics Failure to foresee unintended consequences, crises, “normal accidents”, systemic malfunctions


Contents of the Black Box: Transactions : Contents of the Black Box: Transactions Link disparate actors (nodes) around the globe Actors can be people, cities, countries, or organizations Measured as trade, capital transfers, treaties, travel, collaborations, and communication


Black Box of Globalization: Network Analysis: Black Box of Globalization: Network Analysis Reveals the structure of social relations Reveals winners and losers of globalization processes Illustrates change over time and potentially reveals mechanisms of change


Map the Pattern of Transactions:Reveal Globalization Network: Map the Pattern of Transactions: Reveal Globalization Network Build database on transactions Develop tools for visualizing transactions statically and dynamically Create open access data and tools for scholarly and public policy investigators


Models of Globalization: Models of Globalization


Observing Trade: Observing Trade Exports as % of GDP Annual % Change in Trade Volume


Significant Moments of Observation: Significant Moments of Observation


Data and Methods: Data and Methods Trade Data World Trade Analyzer 1980, 1990, 2001 $ Amount of exports/imports between every country Including an aggregate of all commodities and 93 of those related to food, shelter, clothing, energy, machinery and engines. Network Maps Apply NetMap Visualizer software Analyze country and regional trade patterns Observe emergent groups Display Cartesian maps Follow step links from central nodes


Too Much Information?Randomness or Chaos?: Too Much Information? Randomness or Chaos? 1980 World Trade All commodities No thresholds


Domestic or International?: Domestic or International?


1980 Trade Structure with links >=0.1% of Total Trade Value: Euro-12: 1980 Trade Structure with links >=0.1% of Total Trade Value: Euro-12 Africa Latin America CIS & Baltics Europe Middle East Unknown Destinations E. Asia S.E. Asia N. America US Euro-12 UK Japan Canada


Slide24: 1990 N. America S.E. Asia E. Asia Middle East Europe CIS & Baltics Latin America Africa Oceania US Euro-12 Japan


2001: 2001 N. America S.E. Asia E. Asia Unknown Destinations Middle East Europe CIS & Baltics Latin America US Euro-12 Mexico


The Americas: Food in 2001: The Americas: Food in 2001 Canada US Brazil Venezuela Mexico Chile


Emergent Group Analysis: Emergent Group Analysis NetMap creates several types of analyses, including: Pre-defined groups based on some attribute such as regions or civilizations Emergent groups Emergent groups represent countries which trade more with each other than with any other countries. Composed of at least 3 countries Which share at least 50% of the same trade ties


2001 Emergent Group Analysis: 2001 Emergent Group Analysis US Euro-12 Mexico UK Canada Emergent Group Members: US Japan Brazil Canada China UK Hong Kong S. Korea Mexico Malaysia Saudi Arabia Singapore Thailand Taiwan Euro-12


2001 Cartesian Map Analysis: 2001 Cartesian Map Analysis US Euro-12 China Unknown Destination Japan


Step Link Analysis: Step Link Analysis US Euro-12 Canada Japan Mexico 2001


Issue #1: Global Equality: Issue #1: Global Equality Rich get Richer? 80/20 Rule? Power Law Distribution?


Concentration of World Trade Links >= 0.1% of Total Value: Concentration of World Trade Links >= 0.1% of Total Value


Distribution of Links:Total Trade at $Million Threshold: Distribution of Links: Total Trade at $Million Threshold


Distribution of Links:Total Trade at 0.01% Threshold: Distribution of Links: Total Trade at 0.01% Threshold


Distribution of Links:Total Trade at 0.1% Threshold: Distribution of Links: Total Trade at 0.1% Threshold


Concentration of World TradeTop 25% in 1980: Concentration of World Trade Top 25% in 1980 N. America E. Asia Unknown Destinations Middle East Europe CIS & Baltics Africa


Concentration of World Trade Top 25% in 1990: Concentration of World Trade Top 25% in 1990 US Canada Japan UK Euro-12


Concentration of World Trade Top 25% in 2001: Concentration of World Trade Top 25% in 2001 US Canada Japan UK Euro-12 Mexico


Concentration of World Trade Top 50% in 2001: Concentration of World Trade Top 50% in 2001 N. America E. Asia Saudi Arabia Europe Russia Mexico Malaysia


Concentration of World Trade Top 75% in 2001: Concentration of World Trade Top 75% in 2001 N. America S.E. Asia E. Asia Unknown Destinations Middle East Europe CIS & Baltics Latin America India Africa Australia


Issue #2: Regional Effects : Issue #2: Regional Effects Americas NAFTA


The Americas: 1980Fifty Largest Unidirectional Trade Links: The Americas: 1980 Fifty Largest Unidirectional Trade Links Canada US Brazil Argentina Neth. Antilles Mexico


The Americas: 2001: Canada US Brazil Argentina Neth. Antilles Mexico The Americas: 2001


The Americas w/o NAFTA:1980 : The Americas w/o NAFTA: 1980 Brazil Argentina Neth. Antilles Venezuela Chile


The Americas w/o NAFTA:2001 : The Americas w/o NAFTA: 2001 Brazil Argentina Neth. Antilles Venezuela Chile Peru Ecuador


Americas in World Trade: Americas in World Trade


Slide49: Africa South Africa ….(Fractal?)


Slide50: Africa, US & Euro-12 1980 All Commodities 50 Largest Links These links represent: 88.90% of Africa trade discounting trade between US & Euro-12 Euro-12 US


Slide51: Africa, US & Euro-12 2001 All Commodities 50 Largest Links These links represent: 84.65% of Africa trade discounting trade between US & Euro-12 Euro-12 US S. Africa


Slide52: Intra-African Trade 1980 All Commodities 50 Largest Links These links represent: 77.52% of All Intra-African Trade Ghana Uganda S. Africa Cote D’Ivoire Algeria Kenya Mali Nigeria


Slide53: Intra-African Trade 2001 All Commodities 50 Largest Links These links represent: 75.83% of All Intra-African Trade Ghana Uganda S. Africa Cote D’Ivoire Algeria Kenya Mali Nigeria Tunisia Libya Zimbabwe


Africa in World Trade: Africa in World Trade


Eurasia: Eurasia Regional Networks Regional Powers


MENA – Top 75% of Value - 1980: MENA – Top 75% of Value - 1980 Saudi Arabia Bahrain Pakistan Kuwait


MENA – Top 75% of Value - 2001: MENA – Top 75% of Value - 2001 Saudi Arabia Bahrain Oman Kuwait Jordan Iran UAE


Asia – Top 25% of Value: Asia – Top 25% of Value 1980 2001 Japan Indonesia S. Korea Taiwan China Hong Kong China Japan


Asia – Top 75% of Value - 1980: Asia – Top 75% of Value - 1980 Japan Indonesia S. Korea Malaysia China Hong Kong Taiwan Brunei Thailand Singapore Philippines


Asia – Top 75% of Value - 2001: Asia – Top 75% of Value - 2001 Japan Indonesia S. Korea Malaysia China Hong Kong Taiwan Vietnam Thailand Singapore Philippines


Europe – Top 75% of Value - 1980: Europe – Top 75% of Value - 1980 France Germany Bel-Lux Netherlands Italy UK Switzerland Austria Spain Ireland Denmark Sweden Norway


Europe – Top 75% of Value - 2001: Europe – Top 75% of Value - 2001 France Germany Bel-Lux Netherlands Italy UK Spain


Summary and Next Steps: Summary and Next Steps Nodes: Additional characteristics Empire and “Civilization” World Development Indicators and Economic System Etc. Standardization “Gravity Free” Models Population and Wealth Distance Links: Additional transactions Tourism and Air Travel Internet usage and Phone calls Migration Layering Structures E.g., Combining trade linkages and cultural information Dynamic Modeling E.g., Visualizing change over time or thresholds


Slide64: Telephone Calls 1995 by World Bank Estimated Income Levels Classic display of the relationships predicted by dependency theory. Richest countries and even semi-rich (Socialist economies): internally and globally integrated. Poorer regions: not well integrated with each other and links only to the rich. Socialist Economies High-mid Low-mid High Low


Schedule2005-06: Schedule 2005-06 Data uploaded to www.princeton.edu/~ina Interactive production of Netmap Conference March 2006 Publication of Observing Trade Fall 2006 Expansion of data and further pubs, 2006-2010. www.princeton.edu/~ina/gkg