bayarbaatar nov5

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L.Bayarbaatar, P.Gomboluudev, P. Batima , L.Natsagdorj B.Erdenetsetseg., B.Bolortsetseg, T.Ganbaatar Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)  2-6 November 2004 Manila Past and Future Climate change and its Impact on Mongolia

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Content Impact of past climate change Climate Snow coverage Grassland Livestock Impact of future climate change change of the climate change of the number of day with snow cover change of permafrost index change of natural zone change of pasture condition change of livestock weight - Conclusions

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Temperature Precipitation Climatic

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Recent Climate Change Trends in Mongolia Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.660C

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Geographical distribution of annual mean temperature change in last 30 years

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Precipitation

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Annual precipitation changes in the last 30 years, mm

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We used following equitation, and to compute the number of days with snow cover, where used calendar days of stable become –100C for seasons spring and autumn Here: S1,S2-calendar days of stable become –100C for seasons spring and autumn, k-selected level or here –100C, a, b-monthly air average temperatures of two sides for k level, esp. a < k >b. Number of days with snow cover, \map of climate atlas\ Computed the number of days with snow cover by monthly air average temperature Snow cover Number of days with snow cover = 365 - (S2 - S1) Actual the number of days with snow on Meteorological stations Past climate study

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Soil moisture

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Productivity (1960) Phenology Pasture

Plant phenology changes: 

Plant phenology changes Phenological data of pasture 8 dominant plant for past 30-40 years data were used. Pasture plants emergency is tend to start earlier in the forest steppe and the steppe. In the Altai mountains, the desert steppe and the desert some of plants (Artemisia frigida, Stipa) have had increased trend which means these plant start to grow later. In relatively arid areas such as the Altai mountains and the Gobi desert, growing season is determined by soil moisture rather than temperature. Generally, pasture plant growth stop earlier in the forest steppe, steppe and Altai mountains, later in the desert steppe and the desert. For other development stages there is no general and clear trend for different ecosystems.

Pasture biomass changes: 

Pasture biomass changes Mean of pasture biomass, 100 kg/ha  In the forest steppe mean pasture biomass is 590 kg/ha, in the steppe 300 kg/ha, in The Altai mountains and the desert 170 kg/ha and in the desert steppe 220 kg/ha. Peak biomass is observed mainly in August, sometimes in July or September depending on individual year’s weather. Pasture biomass changes, 100 kg/ha/1 year Pasture biomass has decreased almost whole summer in all ecosystems.

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Animal husbadry Animal weight (1980)

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Animals weight changes for past 20 years Goat Goat weight was decreased by 2 kg in 2001 compared to 1980 level. Cattle The average cow weight was 263.4 kg during the 1980-2001. The cow weight was decreased by 13.8 kg, although it had more variability. Sheep The sheep weight had a decreasing trend during past 22 years by 3.63 kg or 0.17 kg each year.

Future climate change study: 

Future climate change study

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Mongolia 21-st century climate changes under different climate models winter precipitation change intensity is high than summer and summer temperature change intensity is high than winter It is indicating that winter is getting warmer and snowy, and summer is getting hot and dry

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How accurate is the climate model?

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  Climate Change Scenarios under SRES A2 emission scenarios by HadCM3 Climate Model

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Geographical Distribution of Temperature Change

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Geographical Distribution of Precipitation Change

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2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099 Natural zone

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. HADCM3 çàãâàðààð /À2/ òîîöîîëñîí 0 èçîòåðì áîëîí –100-ààñ õ¿éòýí õîíîãèéí òîîíû ººð÷ëºëò 2080 2020 2050 Change of the number of days with snow cover As figures, the climate models scenarios indicate that area of number of days with snow cover will reduce in 2020, 2050 and 2080, and stable snow cover will be in only mountains regions, so days with snow cover is maximum 140 days in an year. Future study Area of without stable snow cover or area of annual air temperature more than 00C

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Fair index shown, Currently, the area of permafrost about 65.6% of Mongolian territory, but this area will reduce in 2020 by 26.1%, in 2050 by 17.1%, in 2080 by 5.7%, Changes of permafrost Future study Seasonal freezing Ground will be increased

Models used in the study: 

Models used in the study Models of pasture and livestock Century 4.0 plant – soil dynamic model EKZNJTZ – ewe weight gain model in summer and fall EKUKJTZ – ewe weight loss model in winter and spring

Pasture biomass changes under Hadley scenario: 

Pasture biomass changes under Hadley scenario

Pasture potential capacity changes, %: 

Pasture potential capacity changes, % The total pasture potential capacity could be increased not considerably (0.01-0.32%). In 2080 this change could not exceed 0.14 %. However, in the nortern part of the country pasture capacity would decrease 0.1-0.29 %.

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Animal grazing condition in summer under HADCM3-A2 scenario (Effect of extreme hot weather on grazing) 20 õ¿ðòýë 20 – 25 26-ààñ äýýø

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Winter grazing condition under HADCM3 –A2 scenario (Effect of extreme cold temperature on grazing) -20 õ¿ðòýë -20 – - 28 -28-ààñ äîîø

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Sheep weight changes (kg) in winter under HADCM3 scenario Sheep weight changes (%) in winter under HADCM3 scenario

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Sheep weight change (kg) in summer and fall under HADCM3 – A2 scenario Sheep weight change (%) in summer and fall under HADCM3 – A2 scenario

Conclusions- past climate change: 

Conclusions- past climate change Annual air temperature increased an average by 1.66C Pasture plant growth stop earlier in the forest steppe, steppe and Altai mountains, later in the desert steppe and the desert. For other development stages there is no general and clear trend for different ecosystems. Pasture plant biomass have decreased trend whole summer for past 40 years in all ecosystems. Animal weight has decreasing trend with climate change. Especially winter –spring weight loss has increased in past 20 years.

Conclusion- future climate change: 

Conclusion- future climate change The climate models scenarios indicate that area of number of days with snow cover will reduce in 2020, 2050 and 2080, and stable snow cover will be in only mountains regions, so days with snow cover is maximum 140 days in an year Pasture biomass and potential capacity could decrease especially in the forest steppe and the steppe region. Temperature increase would lead to shorten grazing hours and daily intake of animals Animal weight would decrease because of the above combined factors