Energy Scenario India

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India accounts for about one-sixth (16% ) of the world’s population but only about 5% of the world’s primary energy consumption . A large proportion of India does not have access to electricity or convenient clean cooking fuels. In this talk I will present an overview of India’s present energy supply system and the availability of domestic fossil fuel reserves. In the context of the global problem of climate change and non-availability of domestic fossil fuels, future energy systems in India will need to increasingly rely on energy efficiency, renewables or nuclear. I will provide a status and trends of these options in India. I will highlight the challenges for the energy sector in India to provide access to energy in a sustainable fashion. Examples of distributed and centralized renewable based power in India will be used to illustrate some of the issues involved.

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Overview of India’s Energy Scenario: 

Overview of India’s Energy Scenario Rangan Banerjee Dept. of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay Presentation at TU Delft - May 23, 2012

India and World (Selected Indicators for 2009): 

India and World (Selected Indicators for 2009) Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2011 Population 1155.35 million 6761 million GDP (PPP) 4567 Billion 2000 US$ (3954 $/person) 64244 Billion 2000 US$ (9502 $/person) Primary Energy 28.2 EJ 507.8 EJ Energy/person 24.5 GJ/person/year 75.10 GJ/person/year Electricity/person 597 kWh/capita/year 2730 kWh/capita/year CO2 emissions Per person Per GDP 1586 Million tonnes 28999 Million tonnes 1.37 tonnes /capita/year 4.29 tonnes /capita/year 0.35 kg /US$ ppp 0.45 kg /US$ ppp

India and Netherlands ( Indicators for 2009): 

India and Netherlands ( Indicators for 2009) Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2011 Population 1155 million 16.5 million GDP (PPP) 4567 Billion 2000 US$ (3954 $/person) 526 Billion 2000 US$ (31879 $/person) Primary Energy 28.2 EJ 3.27 EJ Energy/person 24.5 GJ/person/year 198.2 GJ/person/year Electricity/person 597 kWh/capita/year 6897 kWh/capita/year CO2 emissions Per person Per GDP 1586 Million tonnes 176 Million tonnes 1.37 tonnes /capita/year 10.66 tonnes /capita/year 0.35 kg /US$ ppp 0.33 kg /US$ ppp

India-Primary Energy mix: 

India-Primary Energy mix 2007 24 EJ 2009 28.2 EJ

India – Installed power capacity: 

India – Installed power capacity 2010 Total: 159,650 MW (0.14 kW/capita)

PowerPoint Presentation: 

Coal Production in India

India - Fossil Fuel reserves: 

India - Fossil Fuel reserves Data Source Plg Comm IEPC, 2006

Coal Reserves (India): 

Coal Reserves (India)

Power Plant capacity additions: 

Power Plant capacity additions

2008 Electricity balance: 

2008 Electricity balance

PowerPoint Presentation: 

Countries Per Capita GNI at PPP ($) Per Capita Energy Consumption ( kgoe ) Per Capita Electricity Consumption (kWh) Per Capita Installed Capacity (kW/person) Per Capita Emissions (tCO2) HDI (2010) India 2,870 529 452 0.13 1.4 0.52 China 5,640 1,484 2,332 0.48 5 0.66 Netherlands* 31,900 4,730 6,897 1.22 10.7 0.91 UK 36,270 3,465 6,123 1.31 8.8 0.85 US 46,740 7,759 13,638 3.24 19 0.90 World 10,203 1,821 2,875 0.64 4.6 - [ Comparative Indicators Data for 2007 Table from Kanitkar and Banerjee (2011)

India - Fossil Fuel reserves: 

India - Fossil Fuel reserves Data Source Plg Comm IEPC, 2006

PowerPoint Presentation: 

Nuclear Plants in India Source:NPCIL

Need for Alternatives: 

Need for Alternatives Fossil fuel reserves limited India - 17% of World population, 4% of primary energy Present pattern – predominantly fossil based (87% comm , 64% total) More than 40 % households unelectrified Linkage between energy services and quality of life

Rx for Energy Sector: 

R x for Energy Sector Paradigm shift – focus on energy services ‘Shortage of supply’ to ‘ longage of demand’ Present energy systems unsustainable- resources, climate change, environmental impact Transition to renewables , clean coal, nuclear, efficiency

Goals for the Energy sector: 

Goals for the Energy sector #1 Provide Access to “convenient” energy services, affordable #2 Make new technologies attractive to investors #3 Develop sustainable energy systems – Climate, local emissions, land, water

PowerPoint Presentation: 

Geothermal*

Renewable Energy (2008) Installed Capacity: 

Renewable Energy (2008) Installed Capacity India World Wind Power 9.66 GW 121 GW Small Hydro 2.0 GW 85 GW Biomass Power 8.0 GW 52 GW Solar PV (grid) 3 MW 13.0 GW Geothermal Power 0 10.0 GW Solar Thermal Power (CSP) 0 0.5 GW Total renewable power 13 GW 280 GW Solar Water heater 1.7 GW (th) (2.4 million m 2 ) 145 GW (th) ( 205 million m 2 ) Biofuels Fuel ethanol (production) 0.3 billion litres 67 billion litres Biodiesel (production) 0.02 billion litres 12 billion litres Source: REN21 Renewables Global Status Report-2009 Update

PowerPoint Presentation: 

Installed Capacity* Estimated Capacity factor Estimated Generation (GWh) (MW) Wind 16179 14% 19842 Biomass Power 1143 70% 7006 Bagasse 1953 60% 10262 Cogeneration Small Hydro 3300 40% 11564 Waste to Energy 20 50% 88 Solar PV 481 20% 844 Total 23076 25% 49607 Renewable installed capacity and generation *as on 31.01.2012 MNRE website: www.mnre.gov.in

Renewable Share in Power: 

21 Renewable Share in Power Renewable Installed Capacity Renewable Generation Nuclear Installed Capacity Nuclear generation

Wind Power: 

Wind Power 16000 MW installed Single machine upto 2.1 MW Average capacity factor 14% Capital cost Rs 50-60 million/MW, Rs 5/kWh 0.8 M €/ MW 7c/kWh (cost effective if CF>20%) India 45000 /100000 MW potential estimated 32%/ yr (5 year growth) Satara, Maharashtra

Small Hydro Power: 

Small Hydro Power Classification - Capacity -Micro less than 100 kW Mini 100 kW - 3 MW Small 3 MW - 15 MW Micro and Mini - usually isolated, Small grid connected Heads as low as 3 m viable Capital Cost Rs 5 million/MW , Rs 1.50-2.50/kWh 0.7 M €/ MW 5c/kWh 1846 MW (7%/year) 200 kW Chizami village, Nagaland Aleo (3MW) Himachal Pradesh

Geothermal/OTEC/Tidal/Wave: 

Geothermal/OTEC/Tidal/Wave World Cost Estimates Geothermal COMMERCIAL 8240 MW 4c/kWh $2000/kW No Indian experience 50 MW plant J & K planned Tidal PROTOTYPE 240 MW FRANCE LF 20% No Indian experience (3.6MW planned Sunderbans) OTEC PROTOTYPE 50 kW 210 kW NELHA India 1MW gross plant attempted Wave Energy PROTOTYPE < 1MW Grid Connected India 150kW plant Thiruvananthpuram

Map of India showing the geothermal provinces : 

Map of India showing the geothermal provinces

OTEC plant schematic: 

OTEC plant schematic

Mooring Arrangement: 

Mooring Arrangement

Wave Energy: 

Wave Energy Source: Sukhatme

Annual Insolation: 

Annual Insolation kWh/m2/year kWh/m2/year kWh/m2/year kWh/m2/year

Area for Power Generation: 

Area for Power Generation India’s present electricity requirement approx. 500 billion kWh, can be met by installing 2500 sq. km of solar field. A square of 50km x 50km, or 4 smaller squares of 25km x 25km.

PowerPoint Presentation: 

BIOMASS THERMOCHEMICAL BIOCHEMICAL COMBUSTION GASIFICATION PYROLYSIS RANKINE CYCLE PRODUCER GAS ATMOSPHERIC PRESSURISED FERMENTATION DIGESTION BIOGAS ETHANOL Duel Fuel SIPGE Gas Turbines Biomass Conversion Routes

Biomass Power: 

Biomass Power Higher Capacity factors than other renewables Fuelwood , agricultural residues, animal waste Atmospheric gasification with dual fuel engine - 500 kW gasifier - largest installation Combustion – 5-18 MW Rs 4-6/kWh Kaganti Power Ltd. Raichur Distt. A.P. 7.5 MW 100 kWe Pfutseromi village, Nagaland

Biomass Gasifier Example: 

Biomass Gasifier Example Arashi HiTech Biopower, Coimbatore 1 MW grid connected 100% producer gas engines Two gasifiers – coconut shells, modified to include other biomass Chilling producer gas with VARS operated on waste heat

Biomethanation Plant example: 

Biomethanation Plant example Cattle dung, urban waste High rate Biomethanation 2.4 acres land 1 MW grid connected + cogeneration 134 million UNDP-GEF

PowerPoint Presentation: 

Biogas 45-70% CH 4 rest CO 2 Calorific value 16-25MJ/m 3 Digestor- well containing animal waste slurry Dome - floats on slurry- acts as gas holder Spent Slurry -sludge- fertiliser Anaerobic Digestion- bacterial action Family size plants 2m 3 /day Community Size plants 12- 150 m 3 /day Rs 14- 19000 for a 2m3 unit Cooking, Electricity, running engine Pura, Karnataka

Annual PV module / cell Production: 

Annual PV module / cell Production

Solar Thermal Heating: 

Solar Thermal Heating ARUN160 Mahananda Dairy, Latur

Challenges for the Energy sector: 

Challenges for the Energy sector #1 Technology Development and Research challenge -Cost Reduction, sustainability #2 System Integration/ System Planning challenge #3 Technology Deployment and Diffusion Challenge #4 Manpower and Capacity Building Challenge #5 Policy Challenge #6 Financing Challenge #7 Institutional Challenge

PowerPoint Presentation: 

41 Source Installed capacity (MW) Annual Energy generated (MU) Annual average capacity factor (%) Coal 2970 21230 81.6 Gas 424 1945 52.4 Hydro 2187 6290 32.8 Firm central share  2825 17785 71.9 Wind (state + private) 3856 5270 18.6 Other renewables (solar PV, biomass and Bagasse based cogeneration) 556 1220 25.1 Independent power projects (coal, lignite, diesel or gas based) 1180 6360 61.5 Assistance from other regional grids 519 2280 50.1 Total 14517 63370 49.8 Tamil Nadu – Grid Details

PowerPoint Presentation: 

42 TN – Installed wind power and wind energy generated

PowerPoint Presentation: 

43 Hourly variation of wind power Monthly variation of wind energy generated

PowerPoint Presentation: 

44 Impacts on LDC

PowerPoint Presentation: 

45 TN – Wind energy scenarios for 2021

PowerPoint Presentation: 

46 5 kWp Solar PV power plant at Rajmachi Village, Maharashtra No. of house holds: 29 Connected load : 1.4 kW

Measurements: 

47 Measurements

PowerPoint Presentation: 

48 Name of the plant Connected Load (kW) Plant Capacity Distribution loss (%) Plant capacity factor (%) Energy cost Rs / kWh Existing Designed Existing Designed Existing Designed Existing Designed Solar PV, Rajmachi 1.4 5 kWp 4 kWp 4.6 0.5 8.3 11.5 32 25 Biomass gasifier, Dissoli 6.9 10 kW 10 kW 12.3 2.0 8.8 12 29-37 21-25 Biomass gasifier, Lonarwadi 10.7 20 kW 10 kW 14.6 2.7 5.6 14 43-54 16-25 Integrated design-Summary

PowerPoint Presentation: 

49 Solar Thermal Power Project Parabolic Trough - MW scale power plant Grid connected Expected operation date in 2011 - Funding from MNRE Facilitate cost effective solar thermal power technology development in India Consortium Members IIT Bombay TATA Power TCE Consulting Engineers Larsen & Toubro KIE Solartherm Clique Developments Pvt. Ltd. Solar Energy Centre CLFR Technology Thermal Storage Solar Field Expansion Vessel Heat Exchanger Generator Condenser Turbine Pump Pump Cooling Water Circuit Water/ Steam Loop Thermic Oil Loop CLFR Direct Steam

PowerPoint Presentation: 

S. No. Equipment Rating Initial cost (Rs) Annual Electricity Cost (Rs) ALCC (Rs) Cost of electricity as % of ALCC 1 Motor 20 hp 45,000 600,000 605,720 99.0 2 EE Motor 20 hp 60,000 502,600 512,700 98.0 3 Incandescent Lamp 100 W 10 1168 1198 97.5 4 CFL 11 W 350 128 240 53.6 Comparison of initial cost and life cycle cost EE- Energy Efficient, CFL- Compact fluorescent lamp, ALCC- Annualised life cycle cost

Industry Flows: 

Industry Flows Source: Marechal, GEA

Conservation supply curve for electricity savings in cement industry-India: 

Conservation supply curve for electricity savings in cement industry-India

Passive House, Zero Energy Buildings: 

Passive House, Zero Energy Buildings www.passiv.de www.passiv.de (Germany/Sweden) http://www.pasivnidomy.cz/domy/

Zero Energy Building : 

Zero Energy Building Fully Daylit Building Fully cross Ventilation Zoning for Warm-Humid Water Conservation and Recycling Efficient Building Materials Energy Generation Biomass, Solar PV Monitoring and Control mechanism in place Features 17.7 kWh/m 2 /year

Alternative Vehicles: 

55 Alternative Vehicles http://beta.thehindu.com/ Reva: Electric vehicle Hydrogen bikes - BHU Jatropha plant

Comparison criteria: 

Comparison criteria Non-renewable energy consumption per km travel (MJ/km) Greenhouse gas emissions per km travel (g CO 2 -eq/km) Cost per km travel (Rs./km) Annualised life cycle costing (ALCC) method Existing Indian prices. If technology is not available commercially in India, international prices are used Resource constraints

Life cycle inventory: 

Life cycle inventory Fossil diesel, electricity Agricultural Cultivation stage Fertilizer, herbicide Irrigation Karanja Seeds Seed bed preparation, Sowing Conversion stage Karanja Bio-diesel (NER, MJ/km vehicle driven), cost (ALCC, per ha, per tones and per km basis) Fossil diesel, Electricity, and NaOH, MeOH Cracking Pressing Filtration Transesterification Vehicle operation with fuel combustion stage Fossil diesel Transportation Fossil diesel,

Methodology for analysis : 

58 Life cycle Approach NER = E out / E in If NER > 1, Replacement viable NER < 1, Replacement not viable CRF (d, n)=[d *(1+d)^n]/[(1+d)^n-1] ALCC = AC + C 0 *CRF (d, n) NER (Net Energy Ratio) ALCC (Annualized cost) CRF (Cash recovery factor) Methodology for analysis Secondary Energy Primary Energy Renewable Energy Fossil diesel, electricity Agricultural Cultivation stage Fertilizer, herbicide, fossil Irrigation Jatropha/Karanja Seeds Seed bed preparation, Sowing, diesel Cracking Pressing Filtration Trans-esterification Jatropha/karanja Bio-diesel (NER, MJ/km vehicle driven, cost (Rs/kg), Renewable Energy Vehicle operation with fuel combustion stage Fossil diesel Transportation and conversion stage Fossil diesel, MeOH, NaOH PE PE PE PE

Jatropha and Karanja Analysis results: 

59 Jatropha and Karanja Analysis results Yield scenario, tones/ha NER without co-products NER with co-products Jatropha Karanja Jatropha Karanja Best 3.04 4.4 6.5 8.7 Worst 0.79 2.4 1.7 4.7 Average 2.32 3.6 4.9 7.2 Cost Variation in the Analysis Jatropha Karanja 36 Rs/kg to 33 Rs/kg 25 Rs /kg to 21 Rs /kg

PowerPoint Presentation: 

60 Not viable Viable Jatropha and Karanja Analysis results Rs. 33-36/kg Rs. 21-25/kg

PowerPoint Presentation: 

2008-09 (in MW) 2030-31 (in MW) BAU LC Coal-based power plants 81,606 3,40,000 2,80,000 Gas & oil-based power plants 18,256 50,700 50,700 Large Hydropower plants 36,885 84,500 84,500 Nuclear power 4,120 30,000 30,000 Solar PV 0 10,000 55,000 Solar thermal (CSP) 0 4000 – without storage 2000 – with storage 7,500 – without storage 15,000 – with storage Onshore wind 10,891 40,000 40,000 Offshore wind 0 0 50,000 Biomass 1,752 20,000 50,000 Small hydropower plants 2,430 8,000 15,000 Total 1,56,000 5,89,200 6,77,700 Source: Green Rating Project, 2009, Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi. Sample Future Scenarios

Summing Up: 

Summing Up Energy Access, affordability, sustainability Renewables – Marginal to mainstream Significant potential for cost effective- energy efficiency Dematerialisation, Product design Emphasis on new stock Technology development, R&D

Acknowledgment: 

63 Acknowledgment Balkrishna Surve Project Assistant Indu Pillai Ph.D - 2008 Mel George A. M.Tech . - 2009 Kusum L Verma ( M.Tech .) Thank you

References: 

References World Energy Assessment – Energy & the Challenge of Sustainability,UNDP , 2000, AKNReddy,R H Williams, T. Johannson,Energy After Rio- Prospects and Challenges-,UNDP, 1997, New York. Tata Energy Data Directory, 2001, New Delhi Urja Bharati , MNES, 1994 Integrated Energy Policy Report, Planning Commission, 2006 www.mnre.gov.in , Ministry of New and Renewable Energy. Wiel S. (2001): Energy Efficiency Labels and Standards, S. Wiel and J.E. McMahon, eds. (Washington, D.C., Collaborative Labelling and Appliance Standards Programme (CLASP). www.ipcc.ch Green Rating Project, 2009, Centre for Science and Environment, New Delhi. Kanitkar , T., and Banerjee , R., 2011: “Power Sector Planning in India,” Journal of Economic Policy and Research, 7(1), 1-23, October, 2011. Thank you Email: rangan@iib.ac.in