aprteleconf

Slide1: 

April 12, 2007 University of Missouri Extension

Weather (title): 

Pat Guinan Weather (title) April 12, 2007

Slide3: 

Easter Freeze of 2007

Slide4: 

Easter Freeze of 2007

Slide5: 

Easter Freeze of 2007

Slide6: 

Easter Freeze of 2007

Slide7: 

2-inch bare soil temperatures at 8:00 a.m. Thursday, April 12, 2007 47° 44° 38° 38° 39° 39° 37° 39° 36° 39° 36°

Slide8: 

Missouri Average Date of Last Spring Frost (< 32°F) 1971-2000

Slide9: 

Departure from Normal Temperature (°F) for March 2007 Departure from Normal Temperature (°F) for April 1-11, 2007

Slide10: 

Departure from Normal Precipitation (in) 1/1/2007 – 4/11/2007

Slide11: 

U.S. Drought Status last year on April 4, 2006 Current U.S. Drought Status as of April 10, 2007

Slide13: 

Amount of precipitation forecast from 7:00 a.m. Thursday, April 12 through 7:00 a.m. Sunday, April 15

Slide14: 

EARLY SPRING SNOWFALL LURKING ON THE HORIZON...AS WELL AS SOME HEAVY RAIN. Heavy April Snow is not unprecedented: Columbia, MO April 14, 1980: 7.1 inches April 10, 1997: 4.4 inches

Slide15: 

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook, April 17-21, 2007

Slide16: 

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook, April 17-21, 2007

Corn outlook (title): 

Melvin Brees April 12, 2007 Corn outlook (title)

USDA Prospective Plantings3-30-07: 

USDA Prospective Plantings 3-30-07

Slide19: 

Supply & Demand: Corn Record Use Ethanol ’06-’07 2.150 Bil Bu ’07-’08 3.160 Bil. Bu. USDA 4-10-07 FAPRI Feb’07 Baseline Planted 90.5 ac .877 12.5 +/- 13.3-13.4 10.4-10.5 1.9 12.3-12.4 950+

Slide22: 

60% 50% 38% May Corn

Slide23: 

Dec ’07 Corn 50% Expect weather market volatility

Slide24: 

Ron Plain April 12, 2007

Slide26: 

2006: 97.0 million head, Up 0.3%

January 2007 Cattle Inventory: 

January 2007 Cattle Inventory All Cattle & Calves 100.3 Beef Cows 99.7 Dairy Cows 100.7 Beef Replace. Heifers 99.5 Dairy Replace. Heifers 100.8 Other Heifers 101.0 Steers 500 lbs & up 101.7 Calves under 500 lbs 99.9 Percent of year earlier

Slide28: 

July-December beef cow slaughter was up 25%

Male/Female Slaughter RatioU.S. Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter: 

Male/Female Slaughter Ratio U.S. Federally Inspected Cattle Slaughter Actual above breakeven indicates herd expansion

Slide30: 

2006: 37.6 million head, down 0.0%

Slide31: 

U.S. was net –2.0% on beef trade in 03 and net –7.4% in 06

Slide32: 

Mar 1 cattle on feed: down 3.5%

Change in Deflated Beef DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.75: 

Change in Deflated Beef Demand Base Elasticity = - 0.75

U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds: 

U.S. Commercial Beef Production Million Pounds *forecast ------Change------ 05-06 06-07. +6.2% +3.6% . +8.6% +1.6% . +4.2% +1.0% . +4.9% +1.3% . +6.0% +1.8% Note: Q4 2007 has 1 more slaughter day

Choice-Select Spread: 

Choice-Select Spread

Soybean Outlook (title): 

Melvin Brees Soybean Outlook (title) April 12, 2007

Trading Funds: 

Trading Funds CFTC Commitment of Trader Supplemental Report April 3, 2007 Large Trader Reportable Positions: Corn 250 Contracts Wheat, Soybean 150 Contracts Long Position Percentage of Open Interest Total Traders: Non-Commercial Longs 81-203 Index Longs 26-27

Slide39: 

Supply & Demand: Soybean USDA 4-10-07 FAPRI Feb’07 Baseline Planted 67.1 ac 615 2.7-2.8 3.3-3.4 1.9 1.0-1.1 2.9-3.0 370-380 $7.00-$7.10

Slide43: 

May Soybean Technical Sell Signal?

Slide44: 

Nov 07 Soybean

Slide45: 

Ron Plain April 12, 2007

U.S. Pork Imports & Exports, 2000-2006: 

U.S. Pork Imports & Exports, 2000-2006 2006: imports down 3.4% & exports up 12.4% 14.3% of 2006 U.S. pork production was exported

Cost of Slaughter Hog ProductionIowa State University Calculations, 1987-2006: 

Cost of Slaughter Hog Production Iowa State University Calculations, 1987-2006 Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1994-2006: 

Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1994-2006 Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

Slide51: 

Despite continuing profits, sow slaughter is high

Hog Inventory Reports U.S. Mar Canada Jan : 

Hog Inventory Reports U.S. Mar Canada Jan

Sows Farrowed-U.S. & Canada Combined: 

Sows Farrowed-U.S. & Canada Combined

Change in Hog DemandBase Elasticity = - 0.2: 

Change in Hog Demand Base Elasticity = - 0.2

U.S. Commercial Hog Slaughter Million Head: 

U.S. Commercial Hog Slaughter Million Head *forecast ------Change------ 05-06 06-07. +2.6% +1.9% . - 0.8% +0.5% . +1.1% +1.5% . +1.4% +1.9% . +1.1% +1.5% Note: Q3 06 has 1 fewer slaughter day & Q4 07 has 1 more day

Slide57: 

2007 Barrow & Gilt Price Forecast Iowa-Minnesota live price

Wheat Outlook (title): 

Melvin Brees Wheat Outlook (title) April 12, 2007

Freeze damage?: 

Freeze damage?

2007 Wheat Acreage: 

2007 Wheat Acreage

Slide61: 

SRW is not in short supply!

Slide62: 

Supply & Demand: Wheat USDA 4-10-07 FAPRI Feb’07 Baseline

Slide65: 

July 07 CBOT Wheat

Slide66: 

July 07 KCBT Wheat

Dairy Outlook (title): 

Joe Horner Dairy Outlook (title) April 12, 2007

Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell: 

Dairy Outlook in a Nutshell Supply – Growth has been slow for 3 months Milk/Feed Price Ratio screaming contraction for a year Feed prices causing stress now before milk prices rise Heavy culling expected with CWT & profit squeeze Switch to rBST may dampen supply Demand – Good Domestic & International Strong domestic demand Cheese stocks heavy due to structural change in processing Butter stocks normal NFDM stocks & Dried Whey Stocks –short from exporting Outlook – Much higher prices in 2007

Milk-Feed Price Ratio: 

Milk-Feed Price Ratio

Total U.S. Monthly Milk Production: 

Total U.S. Monthly Milk Production

End-of-Month Total Cheese Stocks: 

End-of-Month Total Cheese Stocks

End-of-Month Total Butter Stocks: 

End-of-Month Total Butter Stocks

End-of-Month Total NFDM Stocks: 

End-of-Month Total NFDM Stocks

2006 US Dairy Exports: 

2006 US Dairy Exports Volume 2.5 Billion Pounds Value $1.8 Billion Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

What is driving NFDM price?: 

What is driving NFDM price?

2007 Class III Futures : 

2007 Class III Futures

Dairy Price Outlook 2007: 

Dairy Price Outlook 2007

USDA Long Term Milk Price Baseline Outlook thru 2016: 

USDA Long Term Milk Price Baseline Outlook thru 2016

Policy Outlook (title): 

Melvin Brees Policy Outlook (title) April 12, 2007

Administration Farm Bill Proposal: 

Administration Farm Bill Proposal Commodity Title Increase Direct Payments 85% of base ac No updates Bases, yields Increase DP 20% for beginning farmers—5yrs Market Based Loan Rates Max rate = House-passed 2002 Farm Bill $1.89 corn, $4.92 Soy, $2.58 Wht, $0.5292 Cot Replace CCP with Revenue Based Payments Based on National avg revenue per acre

Administration Farm Bill Proposal: 

Posted County Price Calculate on Monthly basis Claim only on day Beneficial Interest lost Decrease Payment Limits From $2.5 mil to $200,00 annually Payments to individuals Eliminate “3-enity” rule Eliminate Program Payments Newly purchased land through “1031” exchanges End Fruit & Vegetable Prohibition On base acres Administration Farm Bill Proposal

Administration Farm Bill Proposal: 

Conservation CRP Focus on highly fragile land Priority Whole field enrollment for biomass crops ¾ of CRP land could be used for biomass (Note: No early release of CRP without penalty) Other Redesign Equip, increase funding 30% Increase CSP funding $500 mill—10yrs “Sod Saver” ban on crop subsidies Range & native grass converted to crops Administration Farm Bill Proposal

Other Farm Bill Discussion: 

Other Farm Bill Discussion NCGA Revenue counter-cyclical program Modeled after GRIP County yields and loan rates Keep Direct Payments ASA Support current structure Soybean support out-of-balance Increase target price to $6.85 Budget Restraints May provide advantage to current law

Other Farm Bill Discussion: 

Senate & House Budgets Senate: $15 billion House: $20 billion Above current law spending Over 5 years IF offsets can be found elsewhere (Huge IF) If there are additional funds Much likely spent on: Conservation Disaster aid Other areas besides commodity programs Process started fast—slowed down Other Farm Bill Discussion