fargues211106

Mediterranean Migration The view from the South: 

Mediterranean Migration The view from the South Philippe Fargues November 2006

Four main features of Med-MENA: 

Four main features of Med-MENA A major region of emigration A significant region of immigration Genuine policies on emigration and diasporas No real policy on immigration

How Many Emigrants ?: 

How Many Emigrants ? Source 1: Aggregated data from receiving countries Common sense idea [OECD, CARIM] Biased Missing countries Missing short- and mid-term migrants Missing naturalised migrants Missing irregular migrants Source 2: Consular records of origin countries Voluntary basis Missing unrecorded expatriates Counting re-emigrated persons Administrative nature

Diverging Data : 

Diverging Data Statistics of receiving countries = ½ Consular records of origin countries - Dual citizens - Illegal immigrants - Temporary migrants

Diverging interpretations: 

Diverging interpretations How many Moroccans in the Netherlands? Dutch authorities: 91,558 Moroccan authorities: [299,897 ; 315,821] = 91,558 Moroccan nationals + 76,842 Dutch citizens, 1st generation + 131,497 2nd generation, both parents + part of 15,924 2nd generation, one parent

Emigration from Med-MENA - Levels: 

Emigration from Med-MENA - Levels 10 -15 million first-generation emigrants 5% of Med-MENA aggregated population More than 2.5 M nationals abroad Palestine Morocco Egypt More than 1.0 M nationals abroad Algeria More than 0.5 nationals abroad Tunisia Lebanon

Emigration from Med-MENA --Trends: 

Emigration from Med-MENA --Trends

High potential for future emigration: 

High potential for future emigration Demographic factors Dramatic transition from high to low birth rates Pressure on labour markets peaking around 2015 Lift of family constraints Economic factors Unemployment Low returns to skills Other factors Deficit of governance

Europe hosts half Med-MENA migrants: 

Europe hosts half Med-MENA migrants Main destinations: EU(25): 45-50% Arab oil countries:40-45% North America: <10% Destination varies with origin Maghreb, Turkey: EU(25) Mashreq: Arab countries, North America, Australia

A majority of low-skilled workers : 

A majority of low-skilled workers

Med-MENA Policies on emigration: 

Med-MENA Policies on emigration Emigration is implicitly regarded positive Development and employment are top issues on the policy agendas Emigration is viewed as part of the solution Alleviates pressures on the labour market Brings financial resources Diasporas: a resource that can be mobilised for national purposes Maximising the economic benefits Maintaining links with cultures of origin Granting some political rights

Immigration into Med-MENA countriesLevels: 

Immigration into Med-MENA countries Levels Recorded immigrants 3.6 million born-abroad residents 2.1 million non-nationals A majority of them in Israel and Palestine Unknown numbers of temporary and/or irregular migrants Sub-Saharans in the Maghreb Syrians in Lebanon Sudanese in Egypt Iraqis in Jordan Arabs transiting through Syria Moldavians and Georgians in Turkey

Med-MENA Policies on immigration: 

Med-MENA Policies on immigration Immigration is explicitly regarded negative Protectionist approach of economic migration Prevention of illegal immigration Legal instruments (Morocco, Tunisia) Partnership Absence of integration projects