A Look at Today’s Higher Education Trends:: A Look at Today’s Higher Education Trends: How will they impact your work?


Slide2: Help you incorporate an external analysis capability into your strategic thinking and processes. Session Goals Increase your knowledge of current and future trends in higher education. Connect you to related resources.


What are your goals for this session?: What are your goals for this session?


Slide4: We are being bombarded by tumultuous forces for change as we go into the 21st Century: Virtual classrooms Global communications Global economies Telecourses Distance learning Corporate classrooms Increased competition among social agencies for scarce resources Pressure for institutional mergers State-wide program review


Slide5: Strategic planning rests upon analysis of the points of interaction between the University and the external environments in which it functions. An understanding of environmental conditions provides a realistic context for the formulation of internal goals and strategies. Why is Scanning so Important?


Slide6: As strategic planning adds a special emphasis on identifying those forces external to the organization that can affect the attainment of its goals, assessment of the environment becomes an important aspect of organizational planning.


Slide7: Now A Greater emphasis on: Need to recognize uncertainty Necessity to consider a range of possible conditions rather than a single future.


Slide8: The approaches, the techniques, and the very philosophy of futures research have been developed to augment the capability of individuals and institutions to deal intelligently with change, especially long-term change.


Understand the external environment and the interconnections of its various sectors.Translate this understanding into the institution's planning and decision-making processes. : Understand the external environment and the interconnections of its various sectors. Translate this understanding into the institution's planning and decision-making processes. Environmental Scanning Assists Decision-makers to:


Slide11: Defining Environment When we scan, it is useful to view the environment in a manner that organizes our scanning efforts. Three levels of environment for scanning:


Slide12: The task environment -The institution's set of customers. …Students and potential students, parents of students and of potential students, political leaders, and employers and potential employers of students. Relates to a particular institution. Although the task environments of a community college and a research university within 20 miles of each other may overlap, they also differ.


Slide13: The industry environment Comprises all enterprises associated with an organization in society. …Public confidence in higher education or student aid legislation


Slide14: The macro-environment …Changes in the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political sectors (STEEP) Direct and Indirect effects …A national or global recession increases the probability of budget cuts in state government and, consequently, budget reductions in publicly supported colleges and universities.


Slide15: Trend Analysis: Important to identify critical emerging trends and derive their implications 2. Construct plans (scenarios) to take advantage of the opportunities they offer, and/or 3. Ameliorate their consequences if they may negatively impact higher education.


Slide16: Seek signs of change. Review the STEEP sectors, looking for signs of change. This requires examining sources for movement in relevant variables.


Slide17: Look for signals of potential events on the horizon.


Slide18: Look for indirect effects. …second- or third-order effects.


Slide19: Look for forecasts of experts Some experts maintain we are moving toward a sustainable world in which attention will focus on energy efficiency, recycling, protection of biological and environmental bases, and the feeding and stabilization of the world population. Consider the implications of the experts' forecasts for the institution.


Slide20: In trend identification, it is important to look widely in the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political sectors, locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally.


How do I do this in my work?: How do I do this in my work? Group think!


Slide22: Trend Analysis The first step in trend analysis is to select the most critical trends The next step is to identify the implications of critical trends and derive action recommendations. Example: Worksheet


Slide23: Two groups: Identify 5 critical trends Select the five most critical ones Select one of these and derive the implications of the trend Recommend actions that educational leaders should consider in light of this analysis.


What other ways can I identify trends?: What other ways can I identify trends? Trends Information & Resources


Slide25: Powerful Change Forces in Higher Education in Recent Years: A rapid increase in competition. Colleges and Universities within and beyond countries and from private providers A significant decrease in funding from government sources. Shifts in perception: Education not really a public good but a private benefit, and that it is not really an investment but a cost. Greater government scrutiny. Performance assessments increasing


Slide26: Powerful Change Forces in Higher Education in Recent Years: A growing consumer rights’ movement. The rapid spread of communications and information technology into every aspect of our lives. Whereas universities and colleges once held a monopoly on high-quality, up-to-date knowledge, this is now available (for a price) on the internet from all manner of providers.


Changing Demographics of the American Population: Changing Demographics of the American Population


Slide28: Diversity (Race, Ethnicity, Gender, & Nationality) Colleges and Universities are expected to be leaders and examples of diversity Institutions expected to disseminate tolerance and understanding of societal differences by creating a campus model – i.e: University of Michigan Affirmative Action Case, Yale orientation program Increased Scholarships and Grants on campus Increased programs in order to support a diverse student body Pre-college programming targeted at increasing students from underrepresented groups attendance and retention at colleges and universities


Latino/Hispanic Population in America: Latino/Hispanic Population in America 42 million Latinos in America Grows by 5,000 per day Since 1980, the number of Hispanics enrolled in colleges has more than tripled, to nearly 1.5 million outpacing the rate of Hispanic population growth Hispanics' share of all bachelor's degrees awarded has risen from about 2.3 percent to about 6.2 percent (Since 1980)


Slide30: RI Diversity Rhode Island has highest percentage among the states of its population who are immigrants to America. Providence, with the largest school district in the state, has 83% of its students coming from ethnic minority backgrounds.


RI Latino Population 1990 - 2000: RI Latino Population 1990 - 2000


Latino Population in RI: Latino Population in RI 9.4% of overall RI population – largest minority group in RI (African Americans – 4%, Asian 2.5%) Grew 11% over the course of 12 years (1990 – 2002) – largest growth in all of New England Expected to continue to grow at unprecedented rates


Slide34: RI College Enrollment as Related to Minority Attendees Source: Rhode Island Board of Governors of Higher Education


Rhode Island Population (Men): Rhode Island Population (Men) Source: US Census Bureau


Rhode Island Population (Women): Rhode Island Population (Women) Source: US Census Bureau


Slide37: High School Graduation Rates Total number of high school graduates Increased 3% between 87-88 and 2000-01 Projected to increase 11% between 2000-01 and 2012-13 Public high school graduates Increased 3% between 87-88 and 2000-01 Projected to increase 11% between 2000-01 and 2012-13 Private high school graduates Increased 4% between 87-88 and 2000-01 Projected to increase 18% between 2000-01 and 2012-13


InstitutionalEnrollment: Institutional Enrollment


Slide39: Enrollment in Degree-Granting Institutions Total Enrollment in Degree Granting Institutions increased 17% from 1988 to 2000 Between 2000 and 2013, total enrollment is expected to increase approximately 19%


Slide40: Enrollment at Degree-Granting Institutions Enrollment Between 2000 & 2013: By Age: Increase 22% for students who are 18-24 years old Increase 2% for students who are 35+ years Public vs. Private 18% in public institutions 20% in private institutions By Sex of Student: Increase 15% for men Increase 21% for women By Attendance Status: Increase 22% for full-time students Increase 13% for part-time students By Level: Increase 18% for undergraduates Increase 19% for graduate students Increase 27% for first-professional students


Slide41: Enrollment in Degree Granting Institutions


Slide42: Enrollment in Degree Granting Institutions


Shift from an Industrial to a Technologically Driven, Knowledge-Based Economy: Shift from an Industrial to a Technologically Driven, Knowledge-Based Economy


Slide44: Technology Changing rapidly and exponentially Environment of increasing disruptions with introduction of new technologies Consumers demanding cutting edge technology in and outside the classroom Demand for real time answers to questions “Any Time, Any Place” Online course registration; financial aid registration; as well as residential life issues - moving from e-mail, e-commerce and e-campus to e-everything Long term reduction in cost to the university (however, initial investment usually high) Corporations demand for knowledge workers that are technologically savvy


The Change in Expectations of Higher Education: The Change in Expectations of Higher Education


Slide46: Changing Learning Environments & Expectations Interdisciplinary learning becoming more widespread and essential Distance Learning is used as a means of increasing access and revenue streams Experiential education as a means to supplement traditional classroom learning


Slide47: Changing Learning Environments & Expectations Public partnerships – reductions in loan amounts for certain jobs; grants and scholarships Public and Private partnerships with universities in order to form a mutual benefit to the university, agency, and community Transition to wired classrooms to use multi media learning tools


Slide48: Changing Learning Environments & Expectations Increased emphasis on assessment and learning outcomes. Quality assurance in the 21st century will rest on: Accredited institutional capacity Educational and organizational effectiveness Demonstrated results in the form of better learning Conceptions of quality won’t be founded on tradition, but on evidence-based results-oriented standards. Standards for quality will build UP from learning outcomes for every student and around the institution’s capacity and effectiveness to add value to a learner’s life through education.


Slide49: Changing Market Structure of Higher Education Subject to external forces that impact other industries in America including the economy Competitive forces include new players in the higher education marketplace: proprietary institutions & professional schools Distance Learning Institutions – University of Phoenix – defying the original brick and mortar vision of a college Compete for better students and faculty Competition for private grants in order to further their research mission and support their faculty


Slide50: Changing Market Structure of Higher Education Focus on core competencies of colleges and universities in order to create a ‘brand’ name Competitive forces force higher education to search for ways to improve their service delivery in order to remain competitive in the market place Higher Education must respond to demands society projects and their own customers in order to transform itself into an all-inclusive entity that provides superior services and learning to students, parents, and in turn, future employers


Public Higher Education Financing: Public Higher Education Financing


Slide52: Federal vs. State Spending in Higher Education Federal Grants Loans guarantees and subsidies Tax benefits for students and parents Contribute 12% of current fund revenues of colleges and universities State Bulk of operating support Contribute well over 20% of current fund revenues of colleges and universities


Slide53: Reduction in Public Higher Education Financing Decline in state and federal appropriations Funds used for different social programs – social security (aging baby boomers), the prison system, & homeland security Shift from direct funding (appropriations) to indirect funding (tax credits) Tuition increasing at an average of 10% at public universities – approximately twice that of inflation


Slide54: Reduction in Public Higher Education Financing Longest term of sustained high tuition increases in the history of higher education Reduction in state support for universities and reduced income from endowments and from donors to both private and public universities coupled with congressional and state legislative pressures to cut operating costs Moving toward a revenue-driven, market-responsive restructuring of higher education.


Slide55: Public 4-Year Degree-Granting Institutions’ Expenditures in 2001- 02 dollars Total Expenditures (99-00 to 2012-2013) Increase 43% ($188 Billion) Middle Alternative* Increase 35% ($178 Billion) Low Alternative* Increase 49% ($196 Billion) High Alternative* Per Student Increase 16% ($30,800) in Middle Alternatives Increase 12% ($29,900) in Low Alternatives Increase 16% ($31,000) in High Alternatives Educational and General Expenditures Increase 38% Overall (From $99 billion to 135 billion) Increase 12% per student in FTE enrollment ($20,000 to $22,300) *Each of the projections (Middle, Low, & High) are based on different assumptions for state and local governments per capita. Middle Alternative projections had revenues increase between 2.0 and 8.9%; Low Alternative is based upon on a per capita increase of between .2 and 4.5%, High Alternative is based on a per capita increase of between 1.9 and 10.7% increase


Slide56: 2003-2004 Average Public College Tuition * Taken from The Chronicle of Higher Education 2003 Almanac


Slide57: Public College Tuition * Taken from The Chronicle of Higher Education 2003 Almanac


Increasing Influence of Public Policy: Increasing Influence of Public Policy


Slide59: Political Agenda Competition with the Bush Administration’s “No Child Left Behind” Act Increased spending on homeland security measures both in the federal budget as well as for on campus compatibility to new federal security regulations Competition with other government programs. i.e. aging population; prison system, etc Current presidential race has had/will have major impact on the educational initiatives at the federal level including funding, financial aid structure, etc.


Current Educational Initiatives and their Potential Impact on the Institution of Higher Education: Current Educational Initiatives and their Potential Impact on the Institution of Higher Education “No Child Left Behind” Increase the number of qualified candidates for college coupled with increase in number of high school graduates in general – capacity issue Increase in tuition increases public institution enrollments


Increasing Expectations for University Assistance in Addressing National, State, & Regional Needs: Increasing Expectations for University Assistance in Addressing National, State, & Regional Needs


Slide62: Earned Degrees Conferred (Projections 2000-01 to 2012-13) Associate’s degrees Increase 21% overall Increase 7% for men Increase 30% for women Bachelor’s degrees Increase 21% overall Increase 16% for men Increase 25% for women First-professional degrees Increase 20% overall Increase 16% for men Increase 26% for women Master’s degrees Increase 19% overall Increase 17% for men Increase 20% for women Doctor’s degrees Increase 5% overall Decrease .1% for men Increase 12% for women


State and National Needs Increasingly Dictate Higher Education Agenda: State and National Needs Increasingly Dictate Higher Education Agenda Increasing expectations for higher education to contribute to workforce development for the knowledge economy. Demand will be for “just in time” learning and customized “just for you” learning. Changing needs of the population for more education, for more people, more often.


Where Can I Find Trend Information?: Where Can I Find Trend Information?


Up to Date Resources: Up to Date Resources The Chronicle of Higher Education University Business Change Magazine Educause New York Times Boston Globe Providence Journal PSPD Website: http//www.uri.edu/pspd/planserv/data.html


Current – Historical Resources: Current – Historical Resources National Center for Education Statistics Department of Education (ed.gov) Lexis-Nexis (URI Library Page) The College Board Amazon/Barnes and Noble web State websites Google searches


Topic Search Example: Topic Search Example Define Topic Broadly Preliminary Search to Focus Topic Identify Key Words/Phrases Search a Variety of Sources, i.e. Google Search; Chronicle of Higher Ed; Dept. of Education, etc Identify Pertinent Trends & “Experts” to Find Books to Provide Historical Analysis and/or Expert Opinion of Topic at Hand


Slide68: References “Society for College and University Planning” July 22, 2003 James Duderstadt, Professor Emeritus, University of Michigan National Center for Education Statistics, “Projections of Education Statistics to 2013, 32nd Edition”, October 2003 “Same Classroom, Different Price” Chronicle of Higher Education, 9/19/03 “Boomers, Gen-X-ers, & Millenials. Understanding New Students” EDUCAUSE, July/August 2003 Smith, Peter. Curricular Transformation: Why we need it.How to Support it.Change, January/February 2004 Scott, Geoff. Effective Change Management in Higher Education, Educause Review, November/December 2003, V. 38, Number 6 United States’ Census Bureau Morrison, James “Environmental Scanning” Pritchett, M.S. (1990) “Environmental Scanning in Support of Planning and decisionmaking: Case studies at Selected Institutions of Higher Education” The College Board “Dealing with the Future NOW. Principles for Creating a Vital Campus in a Climate of Restricted Resources” Change Magazine, July/August 2003 US Census Rhode Island State Planning Website University of Rhode Island Catalog: 1981 - 200