Coastal erosion and climate change

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This is a presentation entitled "Coastal erosion and climate change: Implications for the shoreline over the next century". It is the Powerpoint file for a public lecture at the Badbury Centre in North Yprkshire on 6th November 2009. It examines the nature of climate change and its potential impacts on coastal erosion. The key message from the talk is that proper science allows a sensible evaluation of future coastal behaviour; poor science leads to evaluations that are not reasonable.

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Coastal erosion and climate changeImplications for the shoreline over the next century : 

Coastal erosion and climate changeImplications for the shoreline over the next century David Petley Wilson Professor Durham University http:daveslandslideblog.blogspot.com

Structure of the talk : 

Structure of the talk General introduction to landslides Climate change Future forecasts of climate change for the UK Climate change and coastal erosion – the SMP view A new approach to measuring coastal erosion What does this mean for future rates of activity? What next? Conclusion

Fatal landslides: 2006, 2007 and 2008 : 

Fatal landslides: 2006, 2007 and 2008

Cumulative number of fatalities since September 2002 : 

Cumulative number of fatalities since September 2002 Kashmir earthquake-induced landslides Wenchuan earthquake-induced landslides Other disasters 2002-2009 (CRED database) Earthquake: 429,877 Flood: 37,860 Storm: 166,410 Volcano: 221

The UK and world coastline : 

The UK and world coastline Mainland length = 17,820 km Including islands = 31,370 km Approx. 75% of world coastline is formed from cliffs

Slide 6: 

Graph from New Scientist

Carbon dioxide is the main cause : 

Carbon dioxide is the main cause Data: HadCrut (University of East Anglia), NOAA

“The world hasn’t warmed for ten years”Not true : 

“The world hasn’t warmed for ten years”Not true

With 2009 (to date) : 

With 2009 (to date)

2008 and 2009 monthly temperaturesNot climate – this is weather! : 

2008 and 2009 monthly temperaturesNot climate – this is weather!

Climate change : 

Climate change Graphic and data: IPCC 2007

UKCIP 2009 : 

UKCIP 2009

UKCIP 2009 : 

UKCIP 2009

NE Coast : 

NE Coast

Coastal cliffs : 

Coastal cliffs

Draft shoreline management plan (SMP2) estimation of future erosion at Cowbar : 

Draft shoreline management plan (SMP2) estimation of future erosion at Cowbar

Effects of future sea level rise : 

Effects of future sea level rise NE Coast SMP2 (2008) says: (Royal Haskoning)

Slide 19: 

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/results.php

Sea level rise : 

Sea level rise

Slide 24: 

Measuring erosion properly

Point cloud : 

Point cloud

Measurement of large failure events : 

Measurement of large failure events

Slide 30: 

Measuring change on a rockface

Results: Cliffs : 

Results: Cliffs

NERC seismometer array : 

NERC seismometer array

The base of the cliff : 

The base of the cliff

Typical seismic data vs tidal cycle : 

Typical seismic data vs tidal cycle

Typical seismic data vs tidal cycle : 

Typical seismic data vs tidal cycle

Additional time for wave impacts with sea level rise : 

Additional time for wave impacts with sea level rise

Typical seismic data vs tidal cycle : 

Typical seismic data vs tidal cycle

Additional time for wave impacts with sea level rise : 

Additional time for wave impacts with sea level rise

Revised shoreline management plan : 

Revised shoreline management plan

Slide 43: 

CLIFF TOP Wind, PPT, Temp, RH, Radiation, Micro-seismics, Piezometers CLIFF MID-POINT (48m OD) Near Surface: 3D wind, PPT, Temp, RH, Radiation Water: Height

Slide 45: 

Moisture

Conclusions : 

Conclusions