12_03 HK RGS 1

Views:
 
     
 

Presentation Description

Talk to the Hong Kong Royal Geogrphical Society in April 2012

Comments

Presentation Transcript

PowerPoint Presentation:

Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience The Hazards of Geography: Earthquakes, Floods and Landslides David Petley Email: d.n.petley@durham.ac.uk T witter: @ davepetley Blog: http ://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog /

What this talk is about:

What this talk is about What is the current understanding of the ways in which hazards affect people? What is likely to happen in the next decade or so? How can we reduce the burden that disasters impose upon people? Discussion Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience Durham University

This talk is not about climate change, but it is important:

This talk is not about climate change, but it is important

Energy release from large earthquakes:

Energy release from large earthquakes Chile 1960 Sumatra 2004 Taiwan 1999 Kashmir 2005 Japan 2010 Christchurch 2010 China 2008 Kobe 1995 Magnitude Earthquakes Energy equivalent kg TNT 56 trillion 1.8 trillion 56 billion 56 million 56,000 56 1.8 million 1.8 billion Krakatoa eruption World’s largest nuclear explosion Mount St Helen’s Hiroshima Large lightning bolt 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1,800 1 million 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 Number per year Total human global energy production

PowerPoint Presentation:

Impacts of natural disasters S moothed UN EM-DAT data Number of people killed by all natural disasters Number of natural disasters reported 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 500 400 300 200 100 0 Number of people killed Number of reported disasters

Same data for landslides:

Same data for landslides Number of people killed by landslides Number of recorded landslides

Earthquakes:

Earthquakes

Simkin and Siebert (1994): number of active volcanoes:

Simkin and Siebert (1994): number of active volcanoes Reported number of active volcanoes per year 80 60 40 20 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 1990 Year WW1 WW2

Case study – Beichuan Town:

Case study – Beichuan Town Complex disasters – Beichuan in 2007

PowerPoint Presentation:

2008 Wenchuan (Sichuan) earthquake, China 14:28 12 th May 2008; M w = 7.9; Depth = 19 km

PowerPoint Presentation:

Densmore et al. 2007

Case study – Beichuan Town:

Case study – Beichuan Town Beichuan Fault

PowerPoint Presentation:

Beichuan Middle School landslide Location of school

PowerPoint Presentation:

Old Town Landslide (10 mins after m ain shock)

Tangjiashan landslide dam crisis:

Tangjiashan landslide dam crisis

Post-seismic debris flows:

Post-seismic debris flows

Disasters are not discrete events:

Disasters are not discrete events Disaster cycle

Darfield earthquake and aftershocks:

Darfield earthquake and aftershocks Map: GNS Science, New Zealand

Surface expression of the Darfield fault :

Surface expression of the Darfield fault

Impact:

Impact

February 2011 earthquake:

February 2011 earthquake Aftershock of Darfield earthquake 12:51 on 22 nd Feb 2011 ML = 6.3 at 5 km depth 10 kilometres (6 mi) south-east of the centre of Christchurch 184 people killed

PowerPoint Presentation:

Photo: GNS Science

PowerPoint Presentation:

Map: GNS Science, New Zealand

PowerPoint Presentation:

17 months (so far…) Graph: GNS Science, New Zealand September 2010 January 2011 May 2011 September 2011 January 2012 Number of aftershocks >3.0 3000 3500 2500 2000 1500 1000 5 00 0 Aftershock decay sequence, Christchurch

PowerPoint Presentation:

N But vulnerability is also very complex: Kashmir earthquake Pakistan

Living with hazards in highly active areas – an example from Nepal:

Living with hazards in highly active areas – an example from Nepal

So why locate in a hazard-prone place?:

So why locate in a hazard-prone place? Disadvantages: Landslide hazard (every year, but only in heavy rainfall) Earthquake hazard (once every 400 years) Advantages: Access to health services Access to water Access to a market / trade Access to employment More chance of electricity Etc. . Living here is a rational decision in the context of daily risk

So how can we handle this threat to lives?:

So how can we handle this threat to lives?

Unfortunately, there are two competing approaches::

Unfortunately, there are two competing approaches: Engineering Livelihood

A better approach: first, document impacts Global fatal landslides:

A better approach: first, document impacts Global fatal landslides

East Asia:

East Asia

Landslide occurrence through time:

Landslide occurrence through time

Second, use research in an appropriate manner:

Second, use research in an appropriate manner

Third, work with local people according to their needs:

Third, work with local people according to their needs

Fourth, don’t lose sight of the big picture Bilham (2002):

Fourth, don’t lose sight of the big picture Bilham (2002)

Fifth, use local and national approaches:

Fifth, use local and n ational approaches

The future: threatened cities from earthquakes:

The future: threatened cities from earthquakes Map: University of Colorado and NYT

Large-scale investment in research:

Large-scale investment in research Physics: Large hadron collider: $9 billion Square kilometre array: $2 billion DUSEL: $500 million European Extremely Large Telescope: $1.5 billion Natural hazards: NERC-ESRC increasing resilience to natural hazards(earthquakes and volcanoes): $10 million over five years Average EU funding for earthquake engineering research: $4 million

But small-scale capacity building can also be very effective and efficient:

But small-scale capacity building can also be very effective and efficient

Conclusions:

Conclusions

PowerPoint Presentation:

Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience David Petley Email: d.n.petley@durham.ac.uk Twitter: @ davepetley Blog: http ://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/

authorStream Live Help