Global and regional perspectives on environmental monitoring for hazard management :Global and regional perspectives on environmental monitoring for hazard management David Petley http://daveslandslideblog.blogspot.com Google: “landslide blog”


What are we trying to achieve? :What are we trying to achieve?


Fatal rainfall triggered landslides: 2006, 2007 and 2008 :2008 landslides to end of September Fatal rainfall triggered landslides: 2006, 2007 and 2008 Since Jan 2003: c.14,000 fatalities per year + number killed by Wenchuan Earthquake landslides (24,000?) (18,000 per year?)


World Bank landslide hotspots(Nadim et al . 2007) :2008 landslides to end of September World Bank landslide hotspots(Nadim et al . 2007) Landslide hazard


World Bank landslide hotspots(Nadim et al . 2007) :2008 landslides to end of September World Bank landslide hotspots(Nadim et al . 2007) Landslide mortality risk


Slide 6:Rainfall-induced fatal landslides in Asia: 2006, 2007 and 2008


Cumulative number of fatal rainfall-induced landslides :Cumulative number of fatal rainfall-induced landslides 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1 = 1st January 2003


Slide 8:From: New Scientist Special Report on Over-consumption http://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/dn14950-special-report-the-facts-about-overconsumption.html 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 N. Hemisphere average surface temperature CO2 concentration N. Hemisphere temperature and Carbon dioxide concentration (normalised)


Slide 9:From: New Scientist Special Report on Over-consumption http://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/dn14950-special-report-the-facts-about-overconsumption.html 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Population N. Hemisphere average surface temperature CO2 concentration GDP Tropical deforestation Water use Paper consumption Species extinctions Ozone depletion Foreign investment Fisheries exploited Motor vehicles Global environmental degradation is a substantial problem


Taiwan – geomorphologically active! :Taiwan – geomorphologically active! 1.9% of estimated global erosion from 0.024% of Earth’s land surface Dadson et al. 2003


Environmental monitoring for hazard management :Environmental monitoring for hazard management Why monitor? Improve quality of planning and construction Reduce hazard to save lives Predict catastrophic events Allow appropriate responses to disasters


New Zealand example :New Zealand example Taihape – landslide monitoring: GNS Science through Geonet Aim 1: to improve resilience of town Aim 2: to understand a “typical” landslide


Monitoring approach – robotic total station :Monitoring approach – robotic total station


Data are uploaded in near real-time to a web server :Data are uploaded in near real-time to a web server Public access to the data Useful tool for schools and universities


Taihape results :Taihape results Local people are reassured by monitoring Local real estate agents actually direct people to the website! Now has a warning system operational “just in case”


Problem – how to understand future erosion :Problem – how to understand future erosion


Shoreline management plan against historic data :Shoreline management plan against historic data


SMP retreat rates :SMP retreat rates


Point cloud :Point cloud


Slide 27:Difference analysis and rockfall discrimination


Results: Cliffs :Results: Cliffs


Measured retreat rates and allowing for climate change :Measured retreat rates and allowing for climate change Direct process measurements indicate a rate 2.5 cm yr-1 A correction for climate change 50 % increase (Pearson et al, 2005) based upon a conservative approach A risk management buffer 5 m, 133 % of present 100 yr total change


Discussion :Discussion