On climate change and landslides in S. Asia :On climate change and landslides in S. Asia David Petley Thanks to Dr Gareth Hearn and the LRA team Nepal Colleagues at International Landslide Centre http://daveslandslideblog.blogspot.com Google: “landslide blog”


The aim of this work :The aim of this work


Fatal rainfall triggered landslides: 2006, 2007 and 2008 :2008 landslides to end of September Fatal rainfall triggered landslides: 2006, 2007 and 2008 Since Jan 2003: c.14,000 fatalities per year + number killed by Wenchuan Earthquake landslides (24,000?) (18,000 per year?)


World Bank landslide hotspots(Nadim et al . 2007) :2008 landslides to end of September World Bank landslide hotspots(Nadim et al . 2007) Landslide hazard


World Bank landslide hotspots(Nadim et al . 2007) :2008 landslides to end of September World Bank landslide hotspots(Nadim et al . 2007) Landslide mortality risk


Slide 6:Rainfall-induced fatal landslides in Asia: 2006, 2007 and 2008


Cumulative number of fatal rainfall-induced landslides :Cumulative number of fatal rainfall-induced landslides 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1 = 1st January 2003


Annual landslide occurrence by region :Annual landslide occurrence by region S. Asia = India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Burma 2008 to date = 276


Annual landslide occurrence by month :Annual landslide occurrence by month


Average occurrence of fatal landslides by region :Average occurrence of fatal landslides by region


South Asia :South Asia


Fatal rainfall-triggered landslides in S. Asia by year and month :Fatal rainfall-triggered landslides in S. Asia by year and month 2008 to date = 127


South Asia :South Asia Key control is the SW monsoon


Landslides in S. Asia in 2007 :Landslides in S. Asia in 2007


GPCC data on annual precipitation in S. Asia :GPCC data on annual precipitation in S. Asia Long term average 2007 recorded Scale = mm precipitation


GPCC data on annual precipitation in S. Asia :GPCC data on annual precipitation in S. Asia Long term average 2007 recorded Scale = mm precipitation


GPCC data on annual precipitation in S. Asia :GPCC data on annual precipitation in S. Asia Long term average 2007 recorded Scale = mm precipitation


S. Asian Summer Monsoon Index (Jul, Aug and Sept) :S. Asian Summer Monsoon Index (Jul, Aug and Sept)


Nepal :Nepal


Nepal landslide fatality trend :Nepal landslide fatality trend


Fatal landslide numbers in Nepal (1968-2007) :Fatal landslide numbers in Nepal (1968-2007)


Nepal monthly no. fatal landslides vs SASMI :Nepal monthly no. fatal landslides vs SASMI


Provisional annual landslide total vs recorded precipitation :Provisional annual landslide total vs recorded precipitation (mm)


Global warming and the monsoon :Global warming and the monsoon Change in daily rainfall (mm/day) Change in monsoon daily rainfall (mm/day) From: May 2004 Scenario = Doubling of CO2


Summary of S. Asian monsoon and climate change :Summary of S. Asian monsoon and climate change Most models indicate that monsoon rainfall will increase During warming over the last 50 years, monsoon rainfall has reduced Precipitation intensity Precipitation amount Monsoon area From: Zhou et al. 2008


Slide 26:From: New Scientist Special Report on Over-consumption http://www.newscientist.com/channel/opinion/dn14950-special-report-the-facts-about-overconsumption.html 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Population N. Hemisphere average surface temperature CO2 concentration GDP Tropical deforestation Water use Paper consumption Species extinctions Ozone depletion Foreign investment Fisheries exploited Motor vehicles The future for landslides is not only about climate: pressure on resources


Conclusions :Conclusions