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Japan’s Energy Supply & Demand Prospect and Energy & Environmental Technology Development: 

Japan’s Energy Supply & Demand Prospect and Energy & Environmental Technology Development Mamoru Akiyama President, the Institute of Applied Energy Member of the Board of Directors, Member of the Task Force on Basic Energy Strategy, Engineering Academy of Japan CAETS/NTVA Seminar on Global Energy Foresight Ｍａｙ 26-27, 2004

Contents: 

Contents 0. Introduction 1. Present Status of Energy Supply and Demand in Japan and its Prospect 2. Factors: Resources, Economics, Environmental Capacity and Safety 3. Role of Technology and Development Efforts by the Government 4. Activities on Energy Strategy 5. Conclusions and Recommendations

Fig-1 Trend of Energy Supply in Japan: 

Fig-1 Trend of Energy Supply in Japan Source: EDMC

Fig-2 Total Energy Flow in Japan(1999): 

Fig-2 Total Energy Flow in Japan(1999) Source: EDMC

Fig-３ Basic Structure Relating to 3E(Energy,Economy,Environment) in Japan: 

Fig-３ Basic Structure Relating to 3E(Energy,Economy,Environment) in Japan Source: IAE

Fig-4 Energy Consumptionof Industries in Japan: 

Fig-4 Energy Consumption of Industries in Japan Source: EDMC

Fig-5 Energy Consumptionof Transportation in Japan: 

Fig-5 Energy Consumption of Transportation in Japan Source: EDMC

Fig-6 Energy Consumptionof Households and Business in Japan: 

Fig-6 Energy Consumption of Households and Business in Japan Source: EDMC

Slide9: 

Fig-7 Nuclear Perspectives for 2,050 (One case study in “Nuclear 2,050 Vision”, by Japan Atomic Industrial Forum)

Fig-8 Kinds and Features of Control Factors: 

Fig-8 Kinds and Features of Control Factors

Fig-9 From Mode-1 to Mode-2: 

Fig-9 From Mode-1 to Mode-2 Deployment Development Theories Principles Propositions Theorems Phenomena Societal Needs and Curiosities Discovery, Solution Application, Combination

Slide12: 

Fig-10 Japan’s R＆D System in Science Technology for Energy and Environment Source: IAE

Slide13: 

Function of making intermediate and/or long-term technology strategies Fig 11 NEDO (New Energy & Industrial Technology Development Organization) Source: NEDO

Slide14: 

Fig12 Energy Saving Technology Development in Japan Source: METI

Slide15: 

Fig-13 Energy Saving by adopting Top Runner Program Source: ECCJ

Fig-14 New Energy Supply Plan in Japan : 

Fig-14 New Energy Supply Plan in Japan Source: METI

Fig15 Hydrogen Introduction Scenario for Cars in Japan: 

Number of Cars Applied Type of Cars Capacity of Hydrogen Station Number of Station Demand of Hydrogen 2005　　　 　　　2010　　　　 　 　2020　　　　 　 2030　　 　　　　　　 Cars in General 　　　Compact Car, 　　　Commercial Car 　　　Official Use, Bus 　　　 500Nm3/h level 　　　300Nm3/h 20% 　　　500Nm3/h 80% 　　 　　　　　　　　　 0.4Bill Nm3/y 　　　 6.5Bill Nm3/y 17Bill Nm3/y 　　　　　　　 Several Hundreds　 　 　3,500 8,500 　 300Nm3/h 80% 500Nm3/h 20% 50,000 5 Mill 100Nm3/h level 15 Mill Fig15 Hydrogen Introduction Scenario for Cars in Japan Source: METI

Fig-15 (1) Fuel Cell Vehicle using Hydrogen: 

Fig-15 (1) Fuel Cell Vehicle using Hydrogen Source: Tokyo Gas Ｃｏｒｐ.

Slide19: 

Fig-16 Main Projects of Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute LWR Spent Fuel Experimental Fast Reactor “JOYO” Prototype Fast Reactor “MONJU” Reprocessing Center (Tokai Works) Plutonium Fuel Center (Tokai Works) MOX Fuel HLW Spent Fuel LWR Fuel Reprocessing FR Cycle R&D HLW Disposal R&D Geological Disposal System Fast Reactor Fuel Fabrication Plutonium R&D on FR Fuel Reprocessing CPF, RETF (Tokai Works) Source: JNC

Slide20: 

Fig-17 High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor Establishment of HTGR technology ・ Accumulation of long-term operation data ・ Demonstration of inherent safety feature Establishment of heat utilization technology ・ Demonstration of hydrogen production system Thermal power 30 MW Fuel　　　 　　 Coated fuel particle / Prismatic block type Core material 　　 Graphite Coolant Helium Inlet temperature 395 C Outlet temperature 950 C (Max.) Pressure 4 MPa Containment vessel Reactor pressure vessel Intermediate heat exchanger Spent fuel storage pool Control room Nov. 1998: First criticality Dec. 2001: 30MW, 850℃ 2004: Outlet temp. 950℃: planned JAERI

Slide21: 

Fig-18 Advanced Boiling Water Reactors at TEPCO Kashiwazaki/Kariwa

Slide22: 

Next-generation technologies Industry field Problems related to coal Global warming Acid rain Draw back of handling coal as a solid Improve handling Coal ash generation Tasks Reduction in CO2 emission Reduction in SOx and NOx emissions Improve handling Coal ash treatment Technology development Technologies to improve heat efficiency Technologies concerning desulfurization and denitration Technologies concerning liquefaction, gasification and slurrying Technology to efficiently utilize coal ash Electric power field Coal-fired gas dust collection technology under high temperature ・ Advanced coal conversion technology to produce coke (for the steel industry) ・ Fluidized-bed cement kiln technology (for the cement industry) etc. ・ Pressurized fluidized-bed combined power generation technology ・ Advanced pressurized fluidized-bed combined power generation technology ・ Coal gasification combined power ・ generation technology Coal gasification fuel cell technology ・Low emission coal energy utilization system ・ Advanced flue-gas treatment technology ・ Advanced coal reforming technology etc. ・ Technologies to produce artificial super-light aggregates ・ Technology to utilize ash from fluidezed-bed boilers ・ Technology to produce active fly ash etc. ・ CWM technology ・ Hydrogen production technology with CO2 recovery by utilizing coal ・ Multi-purpose coal conversion technology (for general industries) ・ Coal liquefaction, DME (for transportation fuel) etc. Fig-19 Clean Coal Technology Source: METI

Slide23: 

Source: IAE

Fig-21 Outline of Energy Basic Plan: 

Fig-21 Outline of Energy Basic Plan Established in Ｏｃｔｏｂｅｒ 2003 by the Requirement of Energy Basic Law 2. Strategic Policy for Energy Type, as Follows, ・　Nuclear Energy as Principal Power Generation. ・　New Energy as Supplementary Role in Power Generation, needing Further Development. ・　Saving Energy is Promoted to Meet the Best Available Technology (Top Runner Program). ・　Distributed Energy System and Hydrogen Energy Potentially Play a Big Role in the Future. Source: IAE

Slide25: 

Fig-22 Activities in EAJ/SCJ and Related Studies Source: IAE

Fig-23 Hoped-for advanced information basis on energy: 

Fig-23 Hoped-for advanced information basis on energy Need for advancement 　・Accurate information is needed for maintaining appropriate policies, establishing and/or implementing plans, and its evaluation. Current status of information basis on energy 　・Truly needed information is short still in the sea of information. 　・Credibility of information may be questionable. Initiatives for advancement 　・Alliance of the related think tanks in Japan, and creating function of the central key station 　・Establishment of linkage between Japan's network and global networks Action plans 　・Starting to link global networks while networking in Japan 　・Efforts to harmonize all the members in Japan's network and regular up-date of information Desirable direction 　・Cooperation with people in various areas of specialization and/or standpoint when proceeding to inter-disciplinary level 　・Continuous development of information system and its implementation as well as daily operation on information gathering, analysis and provision Source: IAE

Concluding Remarks: 

Concluding Remarks More reasonable and acceptable criteria for evaluating the policies and action programs on energy R&D investment, such as those based on life cycle assessment and on long term technological assessment, are needed Energy analysis is important, such as the ratio of output and input for each kind of energy in use in our society as well as for every potential energy in future, for selecting more adaptable energy with respect to social activities and natural environment Advanced basis for collecting, analyzing, evaluating necessary energy information, and for disseminating the accurate, reliable and thus widely usable and acceptable energy information; i.e., a strategic platform on energy information, will play inevitable role Members associating in CAETS are expected to start planning and forming such inter-intra national platform on energy information, and thus contribute for mitigating or even solving many serious energy and environmental problems in future.