Readiness

Readiness: 

Readiness What is it? How can it be measured? Is there an optimal level of readiness? John F. Raffensperger Dept. of Management, University of Canterbury Christchurch, New Zealand j.raffensperger@mang.canterbury.ac.nz This material was produced while the author was at Dept. of Operations Research Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

Outline: 

Outline Overview, assumptions/axioms, definitions How to measure readiness at unit level. How to measure readiness at aggregate levels. Cyclic readiness: How to prescribe optimal readiness (if time permits).

3 levels of concern on readiness: 

3 levels of concern on readiness Unit commanders maximize readiness Fixed budget. Tactical: train now or later. Report readiness to higher levels. Logistics managers see limited status reports. Gulf War: Which units are most ready? Need to decide early which units go. Policy-makers make strategic decisions. Capacity, long-range budget, system design. Congress: Trade-off of budget to readiness?

Why is readiness hard to measure?: 

Large, heterogeneous organization. Varied unit sizes, training, tasks, missions. Fuzzy, undefined, controversial, important. No definition, but “I know it when I see it”. Too many details, too much information? “Analytical confusion complicates policy.” R.K. Betts, 1995. What’s the real world problem? Why is readiness hard to measure?

Literature review: 

Literature review Moore et al, 1995, RAND Corp. Found that time unifies readiness measurement. Recommended readiness be measured by train-up time. Wessels & Oelschig, 1997, Interfaces, Edelman Prize. Determined force structure to satisfy a set of missions at minimum cost. Excellent political teamwork. Betts, 1995. Columbia Univ. Full-length book. An excellent qualitative analysis of readiness from a political and historical perspective. Raffensperger & Schrage, Military OR, v3, n5, 1998, “A new paradigm for measuring military readiness.”

Assumptions/axioms (1/2): 

Assumptions/axioms (1/2) We need something to use operationally. All info is inaccurate. We seek more accuracy. Define the model with the real problem. Measurement relates to optimal planning. First maximize readiness subject to resources. Measure readiness of a unit based on its best mission. Measure readiness for the right op plan. Readiness is a peacetime problem. There is no budget constraint in war.

Assumptions/axioms (2/2): 

Assumptions/axioms (2/2) Readiness depends on: people, money, time, and the mission. Standards of readiness are in place (METLs). Details are useful only in their context. Participants are honest & well-meaning. The commander is correct within his expertise. Don’t make the commander calculate. The commander can decide who is ready.

Do we need to define readiness?: 

Do we need to define readiness? In condition to act or be used immediately (dictionary definition of “ready”). Doesn’t help measurement. Either-or. The commander decides if the unit is ready. The only irrefutable definition of readiness is the commander’s judgment. Consumers of readiness data need the commander’s judgment translated into a numerical proxy. Find a measure that is useful and does not contradict good judgment. Worry less about definitions.

A perfect measure of readiness: 

A perfect measure of readiness Complete, if it depends on people, money, time, & mission.

The existing system: 

The existing system Existing measures Material counts, number of operable machines. % training complete, % crews trained, train-up time. Personnel fill rates. Categories (C-levels). Problems: None of these are complete or prescriptive. Subject to gaming. No indication of the marginal cost of readiness. Mainly simple & additive.

How to measure readiness: 

How to measure readiness Unit level: time. Train-up time T = days to prepare if mobilized now. Schedule peacetime and emergency training, subject to a peacetime budget B, in one model. Calculate marginal cost of readiness: Change in peacetime budget Change in train-up time High level: dollars. Use marginal cost of readiness of each unit. Assign units to mission calendars. Minimize total cost to change train-up time.

Readiness is driven by cost: 

Readiness is driven by cost Cost of unreadiness Very high & inversely related to the time to prepare. In the emergency, costs are ignored. Cost of capacity for training: Seen as fixed by the manager, usually decided by policy-makers. Variable costs of peacetime training: high. Receive most of the budgetary attention. Commander can delay expensive training to the emergency. Directly impacts readiness.

Unit level readiness: 

Unit level readiness A unit in a state of partial readiness schedules peacetime training. If notified of a mission, they train up: more training is scheduled to get fully ready. 2 planning horizons, different objectives. Peacetime: maintain at reasonable expense. Real, here & now, constrained budget. Emergency: effective & prompt response. Hypothetical, future, no budget constraint.

Example: a tank battalion: 

Example: a tank battalion "Mission Essential Task List” defines training. 50 skills assigned by higher levels. Must practice most skills more than once. High personnel turnover ==> constant training. Personnel is predictable over a short period. Policy: all training done at regular intervals. "Ready" is everyone up-to-date on all skills.

3 models for the tank commander: 

The train-up problem. What is the tank battalion’s train-up time? How fast can they get ready starting now? 3 models for the tank commander The readiness budget problem. What peacetime training minimizes train-up time? Get the marginal cost of readiness B/ T. The readiness capacity problem. Purchase resources to minimize train-up time. Computer simulators, field space. Marginal cost of readiness w.r.t. capacity.

The train-up problem: 

The train-up problem 2 ways to estimate train-up time: Standard template or custom schedule. He should report the minimum train-up time, but this is NP-hard. So they use templates. Without optimization: Lots of paperwork. Ignores local constraints. Hard to prioritize training. Hard to justify extra funds. Subjective - no proof the unit could be ready. Widely varying estimates of train-up time.

The train-up problem: 

The best way to measure unit readiness is to write a train-up schedule. Readiness is the makespan T of the schedule. The train-up problem

Scheduling results: 

Scheduling results

The readiness budget problem: 

The readiness budget problem What peacetime and emergency training minimizes train-up time T? The most critical problem in military readiness. A complication of the train-up problem. 2 knapsacks: budget B vs. time T. Calculate the marginal cost of readiness. Change budget B parametrically to get B/ T.

Slide21: 

Train-up time vs budget (actual data) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 Budget ($000) Days train-up time

The readiness capacity problem: 

The readiness capacity problem Purchase resources to minimize train-up time. Computer simulators, field space. Given a budget F, what should be purchased? Marginal cost of readiness w.r.t. capacity. Change budget for capacity F parametrically to find F/T.

How to measure unit readiness: 

How to measure unit readiness Solve the readiness budget problem. Schedule peacetime and emergency training to minimize train-up time T. Have 2 planning horizons, peacetime and emergency. Minimize T subject to the peacetime budget B. This works for any kind of unit or asset.

The aggregate readiness problem: 

The aggregate readiness problem What is the readiness of the whole Army? Not enough to know train-up time of all units. Readiness depends on a specific mission. Improve A or B? Steel Dogs: TUT=17 days Iron Hounds: TUT=29 days Decreasing marginal readiness to dollars? If the mission requires 1 on Day 6, and 1 on Day 31, the solution is obvious. We should have an optimal solution, not just a feasible solution.

Mission: a transportation calendar: 

Mission: a transportation calendar when & where each type of unit is required. Measure unit readiness in units of time. Measure aggregate readiness in dollars. The readiness budget model finds the marginal cost of readiness. Just convert readiness from time to dollars: assign units to the mission at min cost.

Slide26: 

If Steel Dogs have train-up time of 17 days, and are assigned to arrive on day 6, then they are unready by 11 days & $250,000 = cSDogs,tank,6

The aggregate readiness model: 

The aggregate readiness model Aggregate readiness  total cost to improve readiness to do a mission. Assign units to train-up times. aut = # units of type u required on day t. cvut = cost for unit v of type u to go at day t. xvut = 1 if unit v, type u, arrives day t, else 0. The model decomposes over u, type of unit. What if the OV is zero? Try to use NRMO.

More on aggregate readiness: 

More on aggregate readiness If a mission is viewed as a demand for assets, it’s natural to consider stochastic models. Lots of existing work to draw from. Allow a set of probabilistic missions. Include demand for material assets. Allows force mix calculation. Unassigned units aren’t needed. Could solve over different TPFDLs for the same mission to compare readiness.

The cyclic readiness model: 

The cyclic readiness model What is the optimal readiness for each unit? Assume: each unit must have high readiness periodically. some units must be ready to do potential TPFDLs. Then: assign units to potential missions over a long peacetime. assign each unit a different train-up time each month. Need marginal cost of readiness. A big model.

Slide31: 

Uncoordinated readiness Time Readiness Steel Dogs Iron Hounds Lead Canines

Slide32: 

Cyclic readiness Time Readiness Steel Dogs Iron Hounds Lead Canines Korea 1 Korea 1 Korea 1 Korea 1 Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Iraq Korea 2 Korea 2 Korea 2 Korea 2

Cyclic readiness model - output.: 

Cyclic readiness model - output. Prescribes a train-up time for each unit over a long peacetime horizon. Minimizes the long-term cost of training, maintaining the ability to conduct a set of missions at short notice.

If you schedule training:: 

If you schedule training: Avoid useless measures of readiness. % crews ready. # of crews at full readiness. % training complete. Weighted penalty of incomplete training. Instead, use time and dollars. Schedule 2 planning horizons: What to do this month in peace, subject to the budget. All the training you can’t do (= the emergency period). Minimize train-up time in the emergency period.

If you plan logistics:: 

If you plan logistics: Ask for readiness information in units of time: When can this unit be ready? Ask for the marginal cost of readiness: What would it cost to reduce this unit’s train-up time by one week? Like asking for the moon. But we have to start somewhere. As part of your mobility model, include the cost to change train-up time.

If you plan material assets:: 

If you plan material assets: Determine the time required to refill current stocks. Determine the minimum cost to reconfigure the supply chain (reduce refill time, increase inventory levels) to satisfy the mission op plan.

Not easy, but it’s right.: 

Not easy, but it’s right. Which is more useful information? Number of operating tanks. The time required to get X operating tanks. Cost to reconfigure inventory to have enough operating tanks in time to satisfy a TPFDL. Which is harder? “Analytical confusion complicates policy.” The paradigm specifies a set of OR problems.

Perspectives: 

Perspectives “Optimize a given force in minimum time,” vs “Obtain sufficient force in enough time.” Joint logistics/mobility perspective: Assign units to potential TPFDLs at minimum change to the peacetime budget. Unit perspective: Train to the TPFDL. O.R. perspective: Satisfy expected demand at minimum cost (or maximum winnings). Enough work for everybody for a long time.