Lambert

National Multimodal Freight Trends/Issues/Forecasts/Policy Implications : 

National Multimodal Freight Trends/Issues/Forecasts/ Policy Implications

Objectives…: 

Objectives… Discuss emerging trends Present national freight analysis efforts including forecasts Identify some of the emerging policy issues toward transportation reauthorization in 2002-2003

Emerging Freight Trends and Issues: 

Emerging Freight Trends and Issues Markets/Logistics (demand) From national markets to global markets From a manufacturing to a service economy Increased DOD reliance on commercial freight system Moving to customer dictated just-in-time delivery system Carriers/Transportation Systems (supply) From modal fragmentation to cross-modal coordination From system construction to system optimization Public Policy From economic deregulation to safety regulation From modal to multi-modal surface transportation policy Increased environmental accountability

National Highway System Intermodal Connectors - Infrastructure Constraints: 

National Highway System Intermodal Connectors - Infrastructure Constraints NHS Connectors Poor physical condition Poor geometrics “orphan status” inadequate coordination of investment strategies

Travel Rate Congestion IndexPeak-Period Travel Times Have Increased Significantly Compared to Off-Peak Travel Times in Across the Nation: 

Source: Texas Transportation Institute Travel Rate Congestion Index Peak-Period Travel Times Have Increased Significantly Compared to Off-Peak Travel Times in Across the Nation

Freight Transportation PerspectivesState and MPO focus is regional and local; private sector focus is increasingly national and global: 

Public Sector (States, MPOs) Private Sector (Shippers, Carriers) Global National Regional Local Freight Transportation Perspectives State and MPO focus is regional and local; private sector focus is increasingly national and global

National Multimodal Freight Data and Policy Analysis Framework: 

National Multimodal Freight Data and Policy Analysis Framework Approximation of current national flows Economic trade forecasts to 2020 (domestic and international) and estimated modal components Assessment of capacity and investment implications Policy development tool for future legislation

Total Domestic Freight Tons and ValueFreight traffic moving into, out of, and within the U.S. totaled 9.8 billion tons and $9.1 trillion in 1998- 1st approximation: 

Total Domestic Freight Tons and Value Freight traffic moving into, out of, and within the U.S. totaled 9.8 billion tons and $9.1 trillion in 1998- 1st approximation

Truck Freight Flows, All CommoditiesAll truck types; highway freight density in tons: 

Truck Freight Flows, All Commodities All truck types; highway freight density in tons

Rail Freight Flows, All CommoditiesRail freight density in tons: 

Rail Freight Flows, All Commodities Rail freight density in tons

Inland Waterway Freight Flows, All Commodities Waterway freight density in tons: 

Inland Waterway Freight Flows, All Commodities Waterway freight density in tons

Air-Freight Origins and DestinationsAll commodities, domestic airport-to-airport traffic, in tons: 

Air-Freight Origins and Destinations All commodities, domestic airport-to-airport traffic, in tons Origins Destinations

Top Gateways for International Freight Exports and imports in tons: 

Top Gateways for International Freight Exports and imports in tons

Slide14: 

Preliminary

Slide15: 

Preliminary

Freight Forecast Growth Rates-Trend : 

Freight Forecast Growth Rates-Trend US Domestic: 1998-2020: 2.9% (Cumulative: 87%) 1998-2010: 3.4% 2010-2020: 2.4% US International: 1998-2020: 3.4% (Cumulative: 107%) 1998-2010: 4.0% 2010-2020: 2.9% International Sectors: US/Canada 1998-2020: 3.1% US/Mexico 1998-2020: 3.5% US/ROW 1998-2020: 3.4%

NAFTA--US/Canada Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons): 

NAFTA--US/Canada Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)

NAFTA--US/Mexico Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons): 

NAFTA--US/Mexico Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)

Overseas Inland Trade: Truck Trafficon U.S. Highway Network, 2020 (Tons): 

Overseas Inland Trade: Truck Traffic on U.S. Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)

Next StepsCapacity and Investment Analysis: 

Next Steps Capacity and Investment Analysis Assign future freight flows to modal networks Conduct highway system capacity analysis to understand the nature of emerging constraints, e.g. nodes, corridors, gateways, connectors, metropolitan congestion Develop illustrative multimodal case studies in selected regions of the country; e.g. Southern Calif., Chicago rail and intermodal access, Mid Atlantic rail, Pacific NW Assess future investment requirements for Biennial Surface Transportation Condition and Performance Report to Congress in 2002.

The Policy Challenge : 

The Policy Challenge Both passenger and freight demand upon the nation’s infrastructure will increase significantly Freight volumes will nearly double to 2020; with higher growth in some corridors and nodes Current planning and financing methods do not adequately address freight’s unique concerns Intermodal linkages not seamless Increased focus on safety and environmental issues Economic competitiveness at stake

Freight Outreach Events: 

Freight Outreach Events

Freight Funding Options from Freight Finance Conference: 

Freight Funding Options from Freight Finance Conference Expanded eligibility or new programs Enhance the ability to co-mingle private and public monies Expanded innovative financing programs Expanded intermodal project funding Separate programs or set asides for freight improvements “Last Mile” program that includes all modes New sources of revenue for freight projects

Toward Surface Transportation Reauthorization- Freight elements? : 

Efficiency Equity Effectiveness 1991 - 97 1998 - 03 2004 - ?? Toward Surface Transportation Reauthorization- Freight elements?

FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations, USDOT: 

FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations, USDOT http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight Gary Maring Director gary.maring@fhwa.dot.gov