3116ENG

Accessing the Benefits of Plant Biotechnology in Latin America: 

Accessing the Benefits of Plant Biotechnology in Latin America Greg Traxler Dept. of Agricultural Economics, Auburn University; Affiliate Scientist, Economics Program, CIMMYT Views expressed do not reflect those of CIMMYT or Auburn University Presented Nov. 7, 2000 at the Inter American Development Bank, Washington, DC

Objective and Outline: 

Objective: Categorize the products that plant biotechnology can deliver and the conditions needed to access each class of benefit. Outline Numbers on the generation of transgenic articles and delivery of GMVs in Argentina and US Benefit category scheme Economic model of GMV delivery Reflect on plant breeding capacity and seed markets in LAC Objective and Outline

Argentina’s experience with the introduction of GMVs : 

Argentina’s experience with the introduction of GMVs Number of GMV trials Number of institutions doing trials Public-Private distribution of trials

Slide4: 

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Year Number of Trials Maize Sunflower Soy Cotton Others Number of Field trials, by crop Argentina, 1991-99 Source: CONABIA database Total trials by year: 3 7 11 21 36 39 78 90 81

Slide5: 

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Year Number of Institutions Alfalfa Cotton Rice Sunflower Maize Potato Soy Wheat Total Canola Number of Institutions conducting trials, by crop Argentina, 1991-99 Source: CONABIA

Slide6: 

Shares of field trials by type of institution, Argentina 1991-99 Public sector 8% Multinational Life Science 74% Argentine firms 18%

Slide7: 

Articles in trials in Argentina in 1999 Source: CONABIA and Argentina Seed Association

GMOs approved for commercialization in Argentina: 

GMOs approved for commercialization in Argentina a Varieties now marketed by several companies b Total Bt maize area. Division among seed companies not available.

Three types of benefits from plant biotechnology: 

Three types of benefits from plant biotechnology Spillover benefits from US transgenic research on temperate events Benefits from targeted transgenic research on tropical events Benefits from biotechnology techniques which improve plant breeding efficiency

Slide10: 

Market size (ha) Q min Q min * Adapted GMV Targeted GMV Average cost curves and minimum size required for market entry $/kg P GMV

Slide11: 

Market size (ha) Q min Q min * Q min ** $/kg P GMV Adapted GMV Targeted GMV Imported GMV Average cost curves and minimum size required for market entry

Slide12: 

Conditions for accessing spillover benefits from private sector (US) transgenic research A functioning biosafety regulatory process Temperate article must be useful Minimal ability to protect intellectual property Active seed markets (hybrids)

What is the spillover potential?: 

What is the spillover potential? Cumulative number of different GMV events

Latin American seed markets: 

Latin American seed markets

Slide15: 

Source: FIS/ASA

Number of national crop areas exceeding given market sizes: 

Number of national crop areas exceeding given market sizes

Diffusion rates of maize hybrids in Latin America: 

Diffusion rates of maize hybrids in Latin America Source: Morris and Lopez, 1999

Regional shares of LAC hybrid maize area: 

Regional shares of LAC hybrid maize area CA & Carib. Andean Mexico Arg. & Brazil 12.5 million ha total area planted to hybrids

Ability to protect intellectual property: 

Ability to protect intellectual property

IPR enforcement experiences to date: 

IPR enforcement experiences to date Argentina - Soybeans Little piracy by seed firms Little protection from farmer-farmer transfer Seed price 1/3 of US price, collected on 50% area Argentina - Bt Maize Adequate - seed prices similar to in US Argentina - Cotton New institution - Monsanto now marketing cotton Mexico - Cotton Adequate - very small area Brazil - Soybeans Disaster so far, future very uncertain China - Cotton Disaster

LAC and US revenue from GMV sales, 1998-99: 

LAC and US revenue from GMV sales, 1998-99

Accessing benefits from targeted transgenic research:How will tropical events be produced?: 

Accessing benefits from targeted transgenic research: How will tropical events be produced? Options Private sector Some crops (sugar cane, coffee) Each country produces its own Unreasonable and inefficient Regional cooperation among NARSs New institutional structure required No experience sharing IP CGIAR centers Will require large budget increases

Slide23: 

GMV Research activities - Nematode resistance - Drought tolerance - New Bt genes - New types of herbicide tolerance - Bt corn, - Bt cotton - Bt soybeans - etc. Specific Crops &Environments Worldwide applications to several crops Genetic Transfor- mation Families Gene transfers to new crops Search for new genetic events High Low GMV Development - New varieties of same crop -Backcrossing a gene into existing commercial lines Favors Large multinationals Favors local institutions High Low

Evidence on plant breeding capacity and technology sharing in rice and wheat: 

Evidence on plant breeding capacity and technology sharing in rice and wheat

Slide25: 

Worldwide wheat variety releases by source of cross, 1966-96

Slide26: 

Countries producing 10 or more wheat varieties from own crosses, 1977-97 Number of releases Number of releases from NARS cross from CIMMYT cross China (Spring Wheat) 125 10 Brazil 113 48 India 107 54 Argentina 58 49 South Africa 58 9 Chile 21 37 Turkey 18 30 Egypt 16 15 Pakistan 15 38 Kenya 13 6 Iran 10 18 Uruguay 10 14

Countries producing 10 or more rice varieties from own crosses, 1977-90: 

Countries producing 10 or more rice varieties from own crosses, 1977-90

Slide29: 

Maize breeding research investments in Latin America*, 1996 * Chile and Paraguay excluded Source: Sain and López 1997; Morris and Lopez, 1999

Assessing the benefits from plant biotechnology: 

Assessing the benefits from plant biotechnology Accessing spillover benefits Targeting transgenic research on LAC problems Biotechnology to improve plant breeding The key Questions: How large is the potential of each benefit source? What are the investment options for accessing each class of benefits?

Accessing spillover benefits : 

Accessing spillover benefits Improved biosafety capacity in most countries Regional biosafety committees IP harmonization Public sector capacity in breeding non-hybrid crops

Developing capacity to target transgenic research on LAC problems: 

Developing capacity to target transgenic research on LAC problems Private sector contribution limited because of small market size Creation of regional public sector capacity needed Build on existing capacity in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, CIMMYT, CIAT Support for development of skills and institutional mechanisms for public sector to access international IP and to share their IP with other countries Private sector making deals with everyone while public sectors are largely technologically autonomous

Biotechnology assistance to plant breeding : 

Biotechnology assistance to plant breeding Plant breeding/seed distribution capacity crucial for accessing biotechnology benefits Only a few crops in a few countries prepared to take advantage Effective breeding programs are already integrating biotechnology, so can make allocation decision on their own