Latin America and non-CO2 greenhouse gases: Latin America and non-CO2 greenhouse gases Steven Rose U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Latin America Modeling and Scenarios Workshop Rio de Janeiro, Brazil September 13-14, 2006


Outline: Outline Why model non-CO2 GHGs? New non-CO2 modeling resources Latin American emissions Latin American mitigation cost estimates New non-CO2 modeling framework Issues


Non-CO2 contribution to climate change: Non-CO2 contribution to climate change In 2000, non-CO2 gases contributed 26% of global GHG emissions (de la Chesnaye et. al., in press. & USEPA, 2006) Contribution of Anthropogenic Emissions of Greenhouse Gases to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect from Preindustrial to Present (measured in watts/meter2) (IPCC, 2001; Table 6-1)


Radiative forcing projections: Radiative forcing projections Source: CCSP 2.1A


EMF-21: Cost-effective non-CO2 mitigation: EMF-21: Cost-effective non-CO2 mitigation Source: Weyant and de la Chesnaye (in press) Stabilization at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100


New non-CO2 modeling resources: New non-CO2 modeling resources Global non-CO2 emissions data USEPA (2006). Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990 – 2020 Country-level historical and near-term projections for CH4, N2O, and Florinated gases USEPA-GTAP (forthcoming) Non-CO2 emissions database that is integrated with GTAP economic activity, energy volume, and CO2 emissions databases (all base year 2001) Non-CO2 mitigation cost data USEPA (2006). Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases Bottom-up abatement cost estimates by activity, sector, and region for 2000, 2010, and 2020


Latin American non-CO2 emissions: Latin American non-CO2 emissions 2005 Estimated 10 GtCO2eq globally 1.5 GtCO2eq from Latin America Source: USEPA (2006). Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990 – 2020


Sector shares of Latin American non-CO2(of estimated 1.5 GtCO2eq in 2005): Sector shares of Latin American non-CO2 (of estimated 1.5 GtCO2eq in 2005) Source: USEPA (2006). Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990 – 2020


Country shares of Latin American non-CO2(of estimated 1.5 GtCO2eq in 2005): Country shares of Latin American non-CO2 (of estimated 1.5 GtCO2eq in 2005) Brazil 43% Argentina 11% Mexico 14% Venezuela 7% Colombia 7% Source: USEPA (2006). Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990 – 2020


Selected Latin American country non-CO2 profiles (2005 estimates): Selected Latin American country non-CO2 profiles (2005 estimates) Source: USEPA (2006). Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990 – 2020


Integrated assessment modeling: Integrated assessment modeling


EMF-21 Latin American Reference Emissions Scenarios: EMF-21 Latin American Reference Emissions Scenarios CO2 CH4 N2O Fossil fuel & cement AIM results include only Brazil and Mexico.


Mitigation cost estimates: Mitigation cost estimates Global 2020 MACs by Major Emitting Country/Region Source: USEPA (2006). Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases Total Latin America & Caribbean 2020 MACs, by Major Sector


Mitigation cost estimates (2): Mitigation cost estimates (2) 2020 MACs for Selected Countries of Latin America Source: USEPA (2006). Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases Agriculture Subsector Brazil 2020 MACs


Slide15: Calculated breakeven prices for mitigation options to determine at what carbon price a mitigation option becomes economically viable (i.e., where the net present value of the benefits of the option equals the net present value of the costs of implementing the option). Mitigation cost estimates (3)


Mitigation cost estimates (4): Mitigation cost estimates (4) How are they used by IAMs? Exogenous – abatement quantity given a price Endogenous Total abatement costs reflected in budget allocation decisions Calibrate partial equilibrium response


EMF-21 Latin American multigas mitigation scenarios (4.5 W/m2 stabilization): 2030 carbon prices (2000 US$) EMF-21 Latin American multigas mitigation scenarios (4.5 W/m2 stabilization) AIM results include only Brazil and Mexico


New non-co2 modeling framework: New non-co2 modeling framework GTAP Economic Activity Core and Energy Volume data 87 Regions 57 Economic sectors Bi-lateral trade Factor (labor, capital, land, natural resources) & intermediate inputs GHG Emissions & Sequestration by country and economic sector CO2 (energy & non-energy) Non-CO2 (CH4, N2O, F-gases) Carbon stocks (forests, soils, by AEZ) Geo-referenced bio-physically unique land inputs (agro-ecological zones, AEZs) Land cover (shrubland, forest, grassland, savanna/pasture, cropland, built-up, other) Detailed land-use – 19 crops (acreage and yields), forests (species, age)


Detailed non-CO2 emissions: Detailed non-CO2 emissions Corresponds to GTAP v6 data 2001 base year and complements GTAP 2001 CO2 emissions data Highly disaggregated – explicitly for more precise mapping to economic activity (output and input) 226 countries 21 non-CO2 GHG emissions categories (N2O, CH4, F-gases) ~145 types of emissions with subcategory disaggregation Sources: Annex 1: UNFCCC CRFs Non-Annex 1: National Communications, ALGAS, IPCC inventory methods, EDGAR (biomass burning, Other CO2), some extrapolation from 2000 data


Sample base year non-CO2 emissions profiles: Sample base year non-CO2 emissions profiles


Framework for modeling non-CO2 emissions – 3 categories: Framework for modeling non-CO2 emissions – 3 categories Output – emissions treated as an input to production, represents alternative technologies, introduce new CES elasticity Follows Hyman et al. (2003) e.g., coal, oil, energy intensive manufacturing Input – emissions proportional to input use Endowment – e.g, ruminant capital stock Intermediate input – e.g., grain crop fertilizer use


Non-CO2 issues relevant to this workshop: Non-CO2 issues relevant to this workshop Emissions Data: reported estimates not available for all countries, must rely on global driver datasets Projections: base year, modeling emissions changes Mitigation Cost estimates – input data scarce for some abatement alternatives, methodology Projections – MAC implementation, model structure


Data references: Data references USEPA, 2006. Global Emissions of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases: 1990-2020, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., http://www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html USEPA, 2006. Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC, 430-R-06-005, http://www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html Lee, H-L., T. W. Hertel, B. Sohngen and N. Ramankutty, 2005. Towards and Integrated Land Use Data Base for Assessing the Potential for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation. GTAP Technical Paper No. 25, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University, https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=1900