logging in or signing up John Felmy Demetrio Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 148 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: January 24, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript John C. FelmyChief Economist and Director Statistics DepartmentAmerican Petroleum InstituteFelmyj@api.orgwww.api.orgwww.gasolineandyou.orgwww.naturalgasfacts.org: Petroleum and Natural Gas Situation John C. Felmy Chief Economist and Director Statistics Department American Petroleum Institute Felmyj@api.org www.api.org www.gasolineandyou.org www.naturalgasfacts.org What is needed in a National Energy Policy?: What is needed in a National Energy Policy? Conservation and energy efficiency are important but are insufficient alone. Renewable energy is an important but small source of energy. Until it’s cost is reduced, it will continue to be a small source. Even with improved efficiency and more renewable energy, we will still need more conventional energy – oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear. Robustness, Redundancy and DiversitySlide3: EIA Forecast of Winter Fuel Costs – October 2004Slide4: NOAA Winter OutlookDéjà vu, All Over Again: Déjà vu, All Over Again 2003 Early 2003 Cold winter Venezuela shutdown Nigerian strikes Iraq High crude oil prices California MTBE ban transition start Summer 2003 Blackout Pipeline problems Strong demand Japanese nuclear outages 2004 OPEC cuts Cold winter Japanese nuclear outages Venezuela uncertainty Iraq uncertainty Nigerian uncertainty Terrorist attacks Norwegian Strikes Yukos Strong economic growth Dollar depreciation High crude oil prices High natural gas prices Lower sulfur gasoline California finishes MTBE ban transition Mississippi river accident Refinery outages Strong gasoline demand NY/CT MTBE bans HurricanesSlide6: Crude oil futures prices - NYMEXSlide7: Gasoline - RetailSlide8: Gasoline and crude oil pricesSlide9: Crude oil and gasoline prices – from lows to highsSlide10: Diesel and crude oil pricesSlide11: Natural gas prices have been above year ago levelsSlide12: NYMEX propane futures prices are at or near record levelsSlide13: NYMEX heating oil prices are at record levelsSlide14: NYMEX coal pricesSlide15: OPEC Capacity - EIA Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Slide16: EIA Crude Oil Forecast Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Slide17: EIA Natural Gas Forecast Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Slide18: U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide19: U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide20: U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide21: U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2025 - EIASlide22: U.S. Residential Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide23: U.S. Industrial Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide24: U.S. Electricity Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide25: Transportation Fuel Shares – 2003 - EIASlide26: Petroleum Product Use Shares – 2003 - EIASlide27: Petroleum Product Usage – 2003 - EIASlide28: Petroleum Product Shares – 2003 - EIASlide29: Natural Gas Shares – 2003 - EIAU.S. Energy Consumption – Quadrillion BtusAEO 2004 - EIA: U.S. Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus AEO 2004 - EIAEIA Forecast to 2003 to 2025: EIA Forecast to 2003 to 2025 Real Gross Domestic Product is projected to increase by 92 percent Population is projected to increase by 19 percent Renewable energy supply is projected to increase by 50 percent Energy efficiency (output per unit of energy) is projected to improve by 27 percent Net petroleum imports are projected to increase, providing 70 percent of U.S. demand in 2025. Growth in petroleum demand is led by transportation, where efficiency improvements are more than offset by growing travel demand and petroleum’s market share increases slightly. Crude oil production falls by 19 percent. Imports of crude oil grow by 65 percent. Petroleum product imports increase by 80 percent. Refinery capacity expands from 16.8 to 21.8 million barrels per day Refinery utilization is projected to increase from 91 to 95 percent World Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus - EIA: World Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus - EIAWorld Energy Demand: World Energy Demand Total Energy Other Energy Solar & Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass, MSW Solar & Wind Oil Gas Coal Other 1.7 1.2 2.9 1.8 Growth Rate 2000-2020, % Solar Wind MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE Growth Rate 2000-2020, % Growth Rate 2000-2020, % 1.3 0.2 2.4 14.0 10.4 Source: ExxonMobilForecast demand growth: Forecast demand growth ROW LA Other Asia Pacific OECD Source: ExxonMobilMassive supply growth needed: Massive supply growth needed Source: ExxonMobil Non-OPEC Crude Undeveloped / Undiscovered NGL / Other Non-OPEC Crude Developed Non-OPEC Total 44 Non-OPEC Crude NGL/ Condensate Other OPEC CrudeWorld Oil Balance: 2000 - 2020: Latin America 3.5 2.0 FSU & Eastern Europe 3.1 6.8 Europe 7.2 10.6 Middle East Asia Pacific US/Canada 2000 2010 2020 Africa 5.3 8.1 Net Imports, MBD Net Exports, MBD 13.6 12.6 10.6 12.1 30.1 12.3 2000 2010 2020 8.8 7.2 2000 2010 2020 4.1 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 6.2 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 18.2 World Oil Balance: 2000 - 2020 21.8 34.5 27.2 18.5 Source: ExxonMobilTechnology: Technology Can be expected to adapt over several generations Markets work – they provide flexibility and discipline Attempts to replace oil prematurely are likely to be costly “Running out” is not likelyDeveloping additional supply will be challenging: Developing additional supply will be challenging Non-OPEC production shifting to new challenging frontiers Gulf OPEC needs to double capacity Capital needs are enormousPolicy: Policy Promotion of free investment and trade is essential Accurate depiction of impact of resource development is key Opposition to oil development is a serious threatOne Word: One Word HydratesSlide41: First – Do No Harm!Slide42: Global Change – What is really happening?History: History Carbon vs Solar: Carbon vs Solar Slide45: Second quarter 2004 industry profits were below average Slide46: Industry profits in perspective Slide47: Industry concentration You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
John Felmy Demetrio Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 148 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: January 24, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript John C. FelmyChief Economist and Director Statistics DepartmentAmerican Petroleum InstituteFelmyj@api.orgwww.api.orgwww.gasolineandyou.orgwww.naturalgasfacts.org: Petroleum and Natural Gas Situation John C. Felmy Chief Economist and Director Statistics Department American Petroleum Institute Felmyj@api.org www.api.org www.gasolineandyou.org www.naturalgasfacts.org What is needed in a National Energy Policy?: What is needed in a National Energy Policy? Conservation and energy efficiency are important but are insufficient alone. Renewable energy is an important but small source of energy. Until it’s cost is reduced, it will continue to be a small source. Even with improved efficiency and more renewable energy, we will still need more conventional energy – oil, coal, natural gas and nuclear. Robustness, Redundancy and DiversitySlide3: EIA Forecast of Winter Fuel Costs – October 2004Slide4: NOAA Winter OutlookDéjà vu, All Over Again: Déjà vu, All Over Again 2003 Early 2003 Cold winter Venezuela shutdown Nigerian strikes Iraq High crude oil prices California MTBE ban transition start Summer 2003 Blackout Pipeline problems Strong demand Japanese nuclear outages 2004 OPEC cuts Cold winter Japanese nuclear outages Venezuela uncertainty Iraq uncertainty Nigerian uncertainty Terrorist attacks Norwegian Strikes Yukos Strong economic growth Dollar depreciation High crude oil prices High natural gas prices Lower sulfur gasoline California finishes MTBE ban transition Mississippi river accident Refinery outages Strong gasoline demand NY/CT MTBE bans HurricanesSlide6: Crude oil futures prices - NYMEXSlide7: Gasoline - RetailSlide8: Gasoline and crude oil pricesSlide9: Crude oil and gasoline prices – from lows to highsSlide10: Diesel and crude oil pricesSlide11: Natural gas prices have been above year ago levelsSlide12: NYMEX propane futures prices are at or near record levelsSlide13: NYMEX heating oil prices are at record levelsSlide14: NYMEX coal pricesSlide15: OPEC Capacity - EIA Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Slide16: EIA Crude Oil Forecast Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Slide17: EIA Natural Gas Forecast Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Table 3a. OPEC Oil Production (Thousand Barrels per Day) (Energy Information Administration\Short-Term Energy Outlook -- July 2004) Slide18: U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide19: U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide20: U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide21: U.S. Energy Consumption Shares – 2025 - EIASlide22: U.S. Residential Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide23: U.S. Industrial Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide24: U.S. Electricity Energy Consumption Shares – 2003 - EIASlide25: Transportation Fuel Shares – 2003 - EIASlide26: Petroleum Product Use Shares – 2003 - EIASlide27: Petroleum Product Usage – 2003 - EIASlide28: Petroleum Product Shares – 2003 - EIASlide29: Natural Gas Shares – 2003 - EIAU.S. Energy Consumption – Quadrillion BtusAEO 2004 - EIA: U.S. Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus AEO 2004 - EIAEIA Forecast to 2003 to 2025: EIA Forecast to 2003 to 2025 Real Gross Domestic Product is projected to increase by 92 percent Population is projected to increase by 19 percent Renewable energy supply is projected to increase by 50 percent Energy efficiency (output per unit of energy) is projected to improve by 27 percent Net petroleum imports are projected to increase, providing 70 percent of U.S. demand in 2025. Growth in petroleum demand is led by transportation, where efficiency improvements are more than offset by growing travel demand and petroleum’s market share increases slightly. Crude oil production falls by 19 percent. Imports of crude oil grow by 65 percent. Petroleum product imports increase by 80 percent. Refinery capacity expands from 16.8 to 21.8 million barrels per day Refinery utilization is projected to increase from 91 to 95 percent World Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus - EIA: World Energy Consumption – Quadrillion Btus - EIAWorld Energy Demand: World Energy Demand Total Energy Other Energy Solar & Wind Hydro Nuclear Biomass, MSW Solar & Wind Oil Gas Coal Other 1.7 1.2 2.9 1.8 Growth Rate 2000-2020, % Solar Wind MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE Growth Rate 2000-2020, % Growth Rate 2000-2020, % 1.3 0.2 2.4 14.0 10.4 Source: ExxonMobilForecast demand growth: Forecast demand growth ROW LA Other Asia Pacific OECD Source: ExxonMobilMassive supply growth needed: Massive supply growth needed Source: ExxonMobil Non-OPEC Crude Undeveloped / Undiscovered NGL / Other Non-OPEC Crude Developed Non-OPEC Total 44 Non-OPEC Crude NGL/ Condensate Other OPEC CrudeWorld Oil Balance: 2000 - 2020: Latin America 3.5 2.0 FSU & Eastern Europe 3.1 6.8 Europe 7.2 10.6 Middle East Asia Pacific US/Canada 2000 2010 2020 Africa 5.3 8.1 Net Imports, MBD Net Exports, MBD 13.6 12.6 10.6 12.1 30.1 12.3 2000 2010 2020 8.8 7.2 2000 2010 2020 4.1 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 6.2 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020 18.2 World Oil Balance: 2000 - 2020 21.8 34.5 27.2 18.5 Source: ExxonMobilTechnology: Technology Can be expected to adapt over several generations Markets work – they provide flexibility and discipline Attempts to replace oil prematurely are likely to be costly “Running out” is not likelyDeveloping additional supply will be challenging: Developing additional supply will be challenging Non-OPEC production shifting to new challenging frontiers Gulf OPEC needs to double capacity Capital needs are enormousPolicy: Policy Promotion of free investment and trade is essential Accurate depiction of impact of resource development is key Opposition to oil development is a serious threatOne Word: One Word HydratesSlide41: First – Do No Harm!Slide42: Global Change – What is really happening?History: History Carbon vs Solar: Carbon vs Solar Slide45: Second quarter 2004 industry profits were below average Slide46: Industry profits in perspective Slide47: Industry concentration