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The Next War? Four Generations of Future Warriors: 

The Next War? Four Generations of Future Warriors Eric M. Walters MA, MSSI Professor of Land Warfare, Military History, and Intelligence American Military University E-mail: ericmwalters@mindspring.com

DoD Innovation: A Case Study—the Marine Corps: 

DoD Innovation: A Case Study—the Marine Corps History suggested amphibious warfare impractical (lesson of Gallipoli, 1915) Marine visionaries thought differently; the rest is history Source: Alllan R. Millett, “Assault From the Sea,” in Williamson Murray and Allan R. Millett, Military Innovation in the Interwar Period (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp. 50-95. Major Earl “Pete” Ellis MajGen John A. Lejeune

Future DoD Innovation Should Be Where?: 

Future DoD Innovation Should Be Where? Rapid Decisive Operations (RDO) concept? Multi-spectral Battlespace Dominance? Something else?

Agenda: 

Agenda What is the Context? Trends Within the world battlespace Threat Evaluation: The Four Warrior Classes Threat Integration: The New Strategic Dilemma Strategic/Operational/Tactical-level Challenges to the Nation, the DoD, and tactical units…

What’s the Danger of “Getting It Wrong?” The Battle of Agincourt: 25 October 1415: 

What’s the Danger of “Getting It Wrong?” The Battle of Agincourt: 25 October 1415

Obligatory Dead Guy Quote: 

Obligatory Dead Guy Quote “The first, the supreme, the most far-reaching act of judgment that the statesman and commander have to make is to establish by that test the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature.” -- Karl von Clausewitz Source: Carl von Clausewitz, On War, Michael Howard and Peter Paret, editors and translators. (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1976, p. 88

Obligatory Defense Critic Comment: 

Obligatory Defense Critic Comment “We are preparing for the war we want to fight…not for the conflicts we cannot avoid.” “No matter how hard we try to take our world with us, we will still find that we sometimes must fight the enemy on his ground, by his rules.” -- Ralph Peters Source: Ralph Peters, Fighting For the Future: Will America Triumph? (Mechanicsburg, PA: Stackpole Books, 1999).

U.S. National Goals: 

U.S. National Goals Survival (well, isn’t that obvious?) “Vital Interests” (IAW 1997 NSS) are: Foster a peaceful, undivided, democratic Europe Forge a strong and stable Asia Pacific community Build a new, open trading system for the twenty-first century one that benefits America and the world Keep America the world's leading force for peace Increase cooperation in confronting security threats that disregard national borders Strengthen the diplomatic and military tools required to address these challenges Source: U.S. Government, A National Security Strategy For A New Century, May 1997 (Washington DC: Government PrintingOffice, 1997), available on the Internet at URL: http//:www.fas.org/man/docs/strategy97.htm#IV

Slide9: 

What Is the Threat?

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace: 

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace States unlikely to risk outraging the US—they know the line between pushing for maximum gain and “goading the elephant” into extreme anger (Steele) State versus State war more a “clash of civilizations” and cultures than ideology (Huntington, Horowitz) Sources: Robert D. Steele, On Intelligence (Fairfax, VA: AFCEA Press, 2000), p. 86. Samuel P. Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations?” in Foreign Affairs, Summer 1993, pp. 22-49. Donald L. Horowitz, “A Harvest of Hostility: Ethnic Conflict and Self-Determination After the Cold War” in Defense Intelligence Journal, 1991, pp. 1-27.

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace: 

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace Economic, environmental, population growth/migration, and distribution of power mismatches seen as major causus belli. Gap between the “haves and “have nots” is growing. (Raspail, Snow, et. al.) Sovereignty versus anti-sovereignty paradox growing in modern international politics (Delmas) Sources: Jean Raspail. The Camp of the Saints. (Pestosky, MI: The Social Contract Press, 1987). Donald M. Snow. UnCivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts. (Boulder: CO, Lynne Rienner Publishers Incorporated, 1996). Philippe Delmas. The Rosy Future of War. (New York: The Free Press, 1995).

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace: 

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace Fallacy of misplaced concreteness—we readily accept programmed systems and approved force structure as a given of value Technological “race” leaves window of vulnerability open High dependence on civilian contractors in American military Source: Robert D. Steele, On Intelligence (Fairfax, VA: AFCEA Press, 2000).

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace: 

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace US vulnerable to campaigns to manipulate international media and public perceptions (Adams) Political, economic, and technological climate favors increase in asymmetric attack/terrorism (Adams) US vulnerabilities to asymmetric attack lie largely in the civil sector (Adams, Sharp) Sources: James Adams, The Next World War: Computers Are the Weapons & the Front Line Is Everywhere. (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1998). Walter Gary Sharp, CyberSpace and the Use of Force. (Falls Church, VA: Aegis Research Corporation, 1999.

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace: 

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace Most men—especially men from non-Western cultures and less-developed areas—take great pleasure in waging war (van Creveld, Peters) Anti-war sentiment only prevalent in Western/westernized cultures (Bozeman) Sources: Martin van Creveld, The Transformation of War. (New York: The Free Press, 1991). Ralph Peters, Fighting For the Future: Will America Triumph? (Mechanicsburg, PA: Stackpole Books, 1999). Adda B. Bozeman, ed. Strategic Intelligence and Statecraft: Selected Essays. D (Washington D.C.: Pergamon-Brassey’s Defence International Press, 1992).

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace: 

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace Distinction between crime and war is blurring in underdeveloped areas (Kaplan, Snow) Today’s terrorism is tomorrow’s legitimate weapon of war (Hanle) Enemies will likely succeed by waging war between seams in legal system, not our operational capabilities (Peters) Sources: Robert D. Kaplan, The Coming Anarchy. (New York: Random House, 2000). Donald M. Snow, UnCivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts. (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers Incorporated, 1996). Donald J. Hanle, Terrorism: The New Face of Warfare. (Washington, D.C.: Pergamon Brassey’s International Defence Publishers, Incorporated, 1989). Ralph Peters, Fighting For the Future: Will America Triumph? (Mechanicsburg, PA: Stackpole Books, 1999).

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace: 

“Terrain Analysis:” Trends Within the World Battlespace Nature of the Cold-War era planning process does not deal with unanticipated radical shifts (Owens) Soldiers make poor policemen (Callahan) Sources: Admiral Bill Owens & Ed Offley. Lifting the Fog of War. (New York: Farrar, Straus, Giroux, 2000). David Callahan. Unwinnable Wars: American Power and Ethnic Conflict. (New York: Hill and Wang, 1997).

Threat Identification: Four Warrior Classes: 

Threat Identification: Four Warrior Classes Traditional Conventional Threats: “The High-Technology Brutes” Traditional/Emerging Unconventional Threats: “The Low-Technology Brutes” Emerging Unconventional Threats: “The High-Technology Seers” Emerging Unconventional Threats: “The Low-Technology Seers” Source: Robert D. Steele, On Intelligence (Fairfax, VA: AFCEA Press, 2000), p. 86.

Threat Evaluation: 

Threat Evaluation

High Technology Brutes: 

High Technology Brutes Threats: Iraq, North Korea, potentially Russia, China, Iran, Libya, and others Saddam Hussein Mu'ammar al-Qadhafi

High Technology Brutes: 

High Technology Brutes Tools: Physical Stealth, “Precision” Targeting SCUD SS-21

High Technology Brutes: Strengths and Weaknesses: 

High Technology Brutes: Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Financial resources Strategic initiative Love of expediency Weaknesses: Persistence of action limited to local region Vulnerability to information manipulation

Low Technology Brutes: “Into the Fourth Generation of War”: 

Low Technology Brutes: “Into the Fourth Generation of War” Threats: Warlike ethnic groups, bandits & pirates, narco-traffickers, violent groups with no political agenda Gang Members from LA Pablo Escobar RPF Guerilla Fighters

Low Technology Brutes: 

Low Technology Brutes Tools: Natural Stealth, Random Targeting Viet Cong Guerilla Fighters Powder Cocaine

Low Technology Brutes: Strengths and Weaknesses: 

Low Technology Brutes: Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Ruthlessness and collective hatred Love of violence and disregard for life—theirs or others’—has no stake in civil order No strategic/operational critical vulnerability; decentralized Weaknesses: Actors ultimately selfish; difficult to unify beyond clan or gang Limited resources over the long haul Source: Ralph Peters, Fighting For the Future: Will America Triumph? (Mechanicsburg, PA: Stackpole Books, 1999). Robert D. Kaplan, The Coming Anarchy (New York: Random House, 2000). Martin van Creveld, The Transformation of War.(New York: The Free Press, 1991).

High Technology Seers: “Cyber-War”: 

High Technology Seers: “Cyber-War” Threats: Hackers and hacker-spies Mark Abene, a.k.a “Phiber Optik” Kevin Poulsen a.k.a. “Dark Dante” John Helsingus, a.k.a. “Julf”

High Technology Seers: 

High Technology Seers Tools: “Cyber-stealth” and database targeting “TEEN HACKER FACES FEDERAL CHARGES--Caused computer crash that disabled Massachusetts airport”

High Technology Seers: Strengths and Weaknesses: 

High Technology Seers: Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Knowledge and lust for knowledge Technical ability and access Shares “trade secrets” freely, forms networks easily Naturally conspiratorial Weaknesses: Cannot resist technical challenge Intensely individualistic; difficult to tame Challenges authority Craving for notoriety is key vulnerability Threat changing as hacking goes professional…

Low Technology Seers: “War For the Cause”: 

Low Technology Seers: “War For the Cause” Threats: religious extremists, violent religious/ political groups, terrorists Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini Osama Bin Ladin

Low Technology Seers: 

Low Technology Seers Tools: Ideological stealth, mass targeting Beirut Bombing (Aftermath) Beirut Bombing (Before) Khobar Towers

Low Technology Seers: Strengths and Weaknesses: 

Low Technology Seers: Strengths and Weaknesses Strengths: Ideology/faith Emotional & mass appeal Disregard for life if expended for the cause Weaknesses: Victim of moderating influences over time (sometimes temporary, sometimes not) Limited resources over the long haul

Threat Integration: The “New” Strategic Dilemmas: 

Threat Integration: The “New” Strategic Dilemmas (Need cartoon of bull head with horns for “horns of a dilemma”)

Traditional Strategic Dilemmas…: 

Traditional Strategic Dilemmas… Source: Archer Jones, The Art of Warfare in the Western World. (Champaign-Urbana, IL: University of Illinois Press, 1997). Persisting Defense Raid w/ vulnerable base Persisting Offense Raid w/ secure base ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK DEFEND DEFEND MOST FLEXIBLE LEAST VULNERABLE LEAST ENDURING OFFENSIVE RESULTS MOST VULNERABLE MOST ENDURING OFFENSIVE RESULTS

Forming New Strategic Dilemmas….: 

Forming New Strategic Dilemmas…. HIGH TECH BRUTES PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING CYBER STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEOLOGICAL STEALTH, MASS TARGETING ECONOMIC WAR GUERRILLA WAR TERRORISM CULTURAL WAR MONEY…RUTHLESSNESS KNOWLEDGE…IDEOLOGY LOW TECH BRUTES LOW TECH SEERS HIGH TECH SEERS POWER BASE Source: Robert D. Steele, On Intelligence (Fairfax, VA: AFCEA Press, 2000), p. 86.

The New Strategic Dilemmas…: 

The New Strategic Dilemmas… Persisting Defense Raid w/ vulnerable base Persisting Offense Raid w/ secure base ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK ATTACK DEFEND DEFEND High Tech Brutes Low Tech Brutes High Tech Seers Low Tech Seers High Tech Brutes Low Tech Brutes High Tech Brutes High Tech Brutes Low Tech Brutes High Tech Seers (?) Low Tech Seers (?)

Some Lethal Combinations…: 

Some Lethal Combinations… Cyberterrorism (operational/tactical-level combination): Remotely destroy economies, air traffic control, pharmaceutical formulas, telecommunications, commercial distribution, etc. Cyber-supported guerrilla war (strategic/operational-level combination): Guerrilla/revolutionary war supported by information operations Cultural warfare (strategic combination): Combined seers with or without brutes Combinations will have centrifugal tendencies that can be exploited…. Source: William S. Lind, et. al. “The Changing Face of War: Into the Fourth Generation” in Military Review, October 1989, pp. 2-11.

Challenges for the Nation… and for the DoD: 

Challenges for the Nation… and for the DoD Technologies demanded by JV 2010 and 2020 to fight conventional threats probably won’t be available by those years (O’Hanlon) Against unconventional warrior classes, it may not be possible to mount attacks against critical vulnerabilities by military force (Snow, Barnett, Lind) DoD innovation should be where? Sources: Michael O’Hanlon, Technological Change and the Future of Warfare. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 2000). Donald M. Snow. UnCivil Wars: International Security and the New Internal Conflicts. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers Incorporated, 1996). Col Jeffrey R. Barnett, USAF. “Nonstate War” in Marine Corps Gazette, May 1994, pp. 83-89. William S. Lind, et. al. “Fourth Generation Warfare: Another Look” in Marine Corps Gazette, December 1994, pp. 34-

Tactical unit challenges: Topics For Discussion: 

Tactical unit challenges: Topics For Discussion Against what class(es) of warrior & strategies are we most effective? Least effective? How can we boost our strengths against those we are most effective against? How can we mitigate our weaknesses against those we are most vulnerable to? How do we handle “the lethal combinations?” What elements of Doctrine, Organization, Training, Equipment, and Support is most important in being combat ready against each warrior class & strategy? Against some or all in combination? How can we avoid being like the knights at the Battle of Agincourt?

QUESTIONS??: 

QUESTIONS??