International Finance Kirt Butler

MSU/CIBER Institute for Community College FacultyInternational FinancebyKirt C. Butler(MSU’s Department of Finance): 

MSU/CIBER Institute for Community College Faculty International Finance by Kirt C. Butler (MSU’s Department of Finance)

Multinational financial management: 

Multinational financial management Multinational financial management is financial management conducted in more than one cultural, social, economic, or political environment

Topics of multinational finance: 

Multinational investment policy Higher returns from existing investments New investment opportunities in international markets Multinational financial policy Reduced capital costs through access to international capital markets Topics of multinational finance

Vivé la difference: 

Vivé la difference International business is necessarily interdisciplinary because business is affected by cross-border differences in: - Language & culture - Human resource mgmt - Accounting - Marketing - Distribution - Logistics - Financial markets - Corporate governance - Other business conventions (legal, accounting, taxation, regulation, etc.)

Multinational financial management: 

Multinational financial management Multinational finance is interdisciplinary within the field of finance Multinational financial managers must be familiar with Foreign exchange and Eurocurrency markets International capital (debt & equity) markets International markets for real assets International portfolio investment Derivatives securities

…where the art resides: 

…where the art resides The notes I handle no better than many pianists, but the pauses between the notes – ah, that is where the art resides. Arthur Schnabel

Topics in Finance for beginners: 

Topics in Finance for beginners International markets International markets in goods & services International financial markets The FX game www.msu.edu/~butler/ Foreign market entry Exporting, contracting, investing Corporate governance Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) Corporate control

Publicly traded debt & equity (December 2001): 

Publicly traded debt & equity (December 2001) Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and Morgan Stanley Capital International.

Major domestic debt markets(billions): 

Major domestic debt markets (billions) Source: Bank for International Settlements (December 2002)

Bank for International Settlements Click on: - Publications and statistics - International financial statistics: 

Bank for International Settlements Click on: - Publications and statistics - International financial statistics Web resource www.bis.org

Major stock markets(billions): 

Major stock markets (billions) Source: Compiled from FTSE and MSCI Indices (May 2002)

Web resourcewww.msci.comMorgan Stanley Capital International: 

Web resource www.msci.com Morgan Stanley Capital International

Exchange rate systems: 

Exchange rate systems Pegged or fixed exchange rate systems Forges a direct link between inflation differentials and employment levels Can result in large adjustments Floating exchange rate systems Allows exchange rates to adjust for inflation differences Allows employment levels and wages to equalize through the exchange rate mechanism

Recent exchange rate arrangements: 

Recent exchange rate arrangements FX regime Africa Asia/Pacific Europe/Mid East Americas No separate WAEMU, Marshall Is, Euro Area Ecuador, legal tender CAEMC Micronesia Panama Currency Libya, China, HK, Iran, Kuwait, Argentina, board or Sudan, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Bahamas, fixed peg Zimbabwe Taiwan Syria Suriname Crawling peg Egypt Denmark, Bolivia, or horiz band Egypt, Israel Venezuela Managed Algeria, India, Croatia, Iraq, Dom. Rep, float Ethiopia, Indonesia, Russian Fed., Guatemala, Kenya, Singapore, Yugoslavia Jamaica, Nigeria Thailand Trinidad Independent Mozambique, Afghanistan, Czech Rep, Norway, Brazil, Canada, float S. Africa, Australia, Poland, Sweden, Chile, Colombia, Uganda Japan, Turkey, Switzerland, Mexico, Peru, S. Korea United Kingdom US Source: International Financial Statistics, April 2003

The international monetary system: 

The international monetary system 1946 The Bretton Woods Conference US dollar convertible into gold at $35/oz; other currencies are pegged to the dollar Created the IMF and the World Bank 1971 Collapse of Bretton Woods 1979 European Monetary System created 1991 The Treaty of Maastricht 1999 Introduction of the euro (€) Emu-zone currencies pegged European bonds converted

Currency crises: 

Currency crises Currency crises during the 1990s Mexican peso crisis of 1995 Asian contagion of 1997 Russian ruble crisis in 1998 Argentinian peso crisis of 1998 In each crisis, contributing factors included: A fixed or pegged exchange rate system that overvalued the local currency A large amount of foreign currency debt

Mexican peso crisis: 

Mexican peso crisis Mexican stock market value (Dec 1993 = 1.00; in pesos) Mexican peso ($/peso)

The Asian contagion(Dec 1996 = 1.00): 

The Asian contagion (Dec 1996 = 1.00) Thai bhat Korean won Indonesian rupiah

The Asian contagion(Dec 1996 = 1.00; in local currency): 

Thailand Korea Indonesia The Asian contagion (Dec 1996 = 1.00; in local currency)

Russia’s currency crisis: 

Russia’s currency crisis Russia’s stock market value (Dec 1995 = 1.0; in rubles) Currency value: $/ruble (Dec 1995 = 1.0)

Argentina’s currency crisis: 

Argentina’s stock market value (Dec 1998 = 1.0; in rubles) Currency value: $/peso (Dec 1998 = 1.0) Argentina’s currency crisis

The debate over IMF lending: 

The debate over IMF lending Proponents of IMF lending policies believe Short term loans help countries overcome temporary crises Critics of IMF lending believe Belt-tightening is counterproductive Capital market liberalizations increase risks Loans are often spent supporting unsustainable exchange rates IMF loans last for decades IMF remedies benefit developed countries

IMF lending and moral hazard: 

IMF lending and moral hazard Moral hazard The existence of a contract can change the behaviors of parties to the contract The IMF’s challenge is to develop policies that promote economic stability and ensure that the consequences of poor investment decisions are borne by investors and not taxpayers

Foreign exchange markets: 

Foreign exchange markets Spot market Cash market with delivery in two business days Forward market Trade on a pre-arranged date and at a pre-arranged price Volume More than $1 trillion trades each day 75% of trade is in the interbank market

Spot exchange rate quotations and data series Click on: - Currency Tools - FXHistory: 

Spot exchange rate quotations and data series Click on: - Currency Tools - FXHistory Web resource www.oanda.com

A classroom exerciseto simulate the fx marketwww.msu.edu/~butler/: 

A classroom exercise to simulate the fx market www.msu.edu/~butler/ Learning objectives To develop practice in dealing with foreign exchange To develop intuition regarding market forces, including arbitrage Market participants Dealers: make a market in foreign currency; that is, quote bid and offer (or ask) prices Traders: trade for their own acct

Rules of the game: 

Rules of the game “Buy low and sell high” One contract º One billion ringgits Trades can be for up to 10 contracts Record each transaction as a purchase or sale Maximum bid-offer spread is 1 basis point (1 bp = 0.01¢/Rg = $0.0001/Rg) Dealer quotes are good for 2 minutes

Arbitrage profit in the fx market: 

Arbitrage profit in the fx market An example Bank A: “$0.26602/Rg bid and $0.26612/Rg offer” Bank B: “$0.26617/Rg bid and $0.26627/Rg offer”

Buy low and sell high: 

Buy low and sell high Bank A Bank B $0.26627/Rg Offer $0.26617/Rg Bid $0.26612/Rg Offer $0.26602/Rg Bid Buy from A Sell to B Arbitrage profit $0.00005/Rg

Riskless arbitrage profit: 

Riskless arbitrage profit Buy Rg1 billion from Bank A at their $0.26612/Rg offer price Sells Rg1 billion to Bank B at their $0.26617/Rg bid price Arbitrage Profit = ($0.00005/Rg)(Rg1 billion) = $50,000 with NO NET INVESTMENT NO RISK

Sample foreign exchange ledger: 

Sample foreign exchange ledger Rg 1 billion $/Rg Cumulative Counterparty contracts price balance 1 Penn Square BUY 1 0.22004 +1 2 Citicorp BUY 3 0.22010 +4 3 Bk of Tokyo SELL 2 0.22016 +2 4 Bk of Tokyo SELL 4 0.22020 -2 5 . . .

Opening prices:$0.21945/Rg BID & $0.21950/Rg OFFER: 

Opening prices: $0.21945/Rg BID & $0.21950/Rg OFFER News announcements The member nations of the G7 have announced that they are buying dollars in an effort to stabilize the dollar The U.S. Federal Reserve announces that in an effort to stimulate economic activity it is lowering the discount rate on overnight loans to commercial banks The U.S. government reports that the U.S. money supply M1 increased by $1 billion more than expected in the most recent quarter

The Impact of News Events The G7 announces that they are buying dollars in an effort to stabilize the dollar: 

The Impact of News Events The G7 announces that they are buying dollars in an effort to stabilize the dollar Value of the U.S. dollar As the demand for dollars rises, the Malaysian ringgit will depreciate and the spot rate S$/Rg will fall P$ P’$ S$ D’$ D$ Q$

The Impact of News Events The U.S. Federal Reserve announces that it is lowering the fed funds rate in an effort to stimulate economic activity: 

The Impact of News Events The U.S. Federal Reserve announces that it is lowering the fed funds rate in an effort to stimulate economic activity This makes it easier for U.S. businesses to borrow and increases economic activity. If this also increases U.S. inflation, then the value of the U.S. dollar should fall. This will result in an appreciation of the ringgit against the dollar. Increases in the domestic discount rate usually, but not always, lead to increases in the value of the domestic currency.

The Impact of News EventsThe U.S. government reports that U.S. money supply M1 increased by $1 billion more than expected in the most recent quarter: 

The Impact of News Events The U.S. government reports that U.S. money supply M1 increased by $1 billion more than expected in the most recent quarter This would appear to result in a larger supply of dollars and hence a lower value for the dollar. However, the increase in the money supply has already occurred and should already be reflected in the market price of the dollar. On the other hand, if the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to increase the discount rate to slow down the economy, then the dollar could rise in anticipation of Fed policy. If the dollar rises against the ringgit, then the ringgit will fall against the dollar.

Hints: 

Hints Getting started: Set an example by jumping in and making a few trades yourself. Market segmentation: Separate large classes into two markets that trade independently. Later, allow trade in either market. Cross-market arbitrage can yield big profits. Fixed fx rates: Quietly ask one bank to serve as the Malaysian central bank and “defend its currency” with artificially high bid and offer quotes. This bank will soon run out of fx reserves as the bank is forced to buy ringgits with its foreign currency reserves.

Foreign market entry: 

Foreign market entry Listen up, my Cossack brethren. We’ll ride into the valley like the wind, the thunder of our horses and the lightning of our steel striking fear in the hearts of our enemies! …And remember - stay out of Mrs. Caldwell’s garden. Gary Larsen, The Far Side

Foreign market entry: 

Foreign market entry Export or import entry Agents or distributors (foreign or domestic) Foreign sales branches or subsidiaries Contract-based entry Licensing or franchising Investment-based entry Foreign direct investments Mergers and acquisitions Strategic alliances or joint ventures

Investment-based entry: 

Investment-based entry International joint ventures Mergers and acquisitions FDI: plant expansions FDI: new investment Source: Ernst & Young

M&A activity: 

Compiled from Mergers and Acquisitions. M&A activity

Corporate governance: 

Corporate governance Corporate governance refers to the way in which stakeholders exert control over the corporation There are 3 ways to obtain control over another firm’s assets acquisition of another firm’s assets acquisition of another firm’s stock merger or consolidation Mergers and acquisitions are becoming increasingly important

Governance of the MNC: 

Governance of the MNC

Corporate governance systems: 

Corporate governance systems Families or the State State China N. Korea Singapore Family Mexico Italy Spain Family-State Indonesia S. Korea Saudi Arabia Bank-based Germany Japan Market-based Australia Canada Ireland U.K. U.S.A.

Corporate governance systems: 

Corporate governance systems

Slide48: 

The gentle reader will never, never know what a consummate ass he can become, until he goes abroad. Mark Twain