Cordeiro Energy Scenarios

Global Energy Scenarios 2020: 

José Luis Cordeiro Director, Venezuela Node www.StateOfTheFuture.org The Millennium Project Global Energy Scenarios 2020

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Cyber Node Washington, DC Buenos Aires Cairo London Prague Moscow Rome Madurai Tokyo Beijing Tehran Sao Paulo Caracas Helsinki Paris New Delhi Calgary Silicon Valley Berlin Kuwait Pretoria/Johannesburg Sidney Mexico City Seoul Ottawa Istanbul Bogotá Lima The Millennium Project…

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Annotated Bibliography Delphi- Round 1 Draft Scenarios Delphi- Round 2 Final Scenarios Final Report IFs Model PHASE 1 PHASE 2 PHASE 3 Energy Scenarios 2020: Study Flow

Review of Past Scenarios: 

Review of Past Scenarios To be included as a “most important” scenario the prior work had to have: Global perspective Extend into the future at least through 2025 Where possible, include a quantitative model to give rigor to the projections Involve several scenarios that covered an interesting “space.” Publication date within the last five years. Top Scenarios: Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and beyond, Energy Data Center, WEC World Energy Outlook 2004 (to be published on October 26, 2004) International Energy Agency International Energy Outlook 2004, EIA, US Department of Energy Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050 Shell Scenarios World Energy, Technology and Climate Policy Outlook 2030, EC Result: annotated bibliography of global energy scenarios and related reports

Comparison of Previous Scenarios: 

Comparison of Previous Scenarios

When is Hubbert’s Peak?(and what follows): 

When is Hubbert’s Peak? (and what follows) From: Hubbert’s Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. Author: Kenneth S. Deffeyes. Princeton Univ Press, October, 2001.

Many comments: 

Many comments Some 3,000 comments were received From 200 energy experts around the world Led to more complete formation of the 4 final scenarios

The Delphi- Part 1Timing of Future Events: 

The Delphi- Part 1 Timing of Future Events

Participants (Round 1): 

Participants (Round 1) Sectoral Europe (57) 19% Total participants: 159 (not including about 30 RT Delphi participants) Regional Sectoral

Participants (Round 2 ): 

Participants (Round 2 ) Europe (57) Regional Sectoral Total participants: 79

Consumption Forecasts: 

Consumption Forecasts

The IFs Model: 

The IFs Model The International Futures (IFs) computer model, maintained at the University of Denver, was used for additional quantitative scenario data. The original model was produced for the National Intelligence Council (NIC) and its 2020 Project It has also been used by other groups like the UNEP GEO Project and The Club of Rome Five output variables computed Annual emissions from fossil fuels- billion tons Energy demand- bil barrels OE Energy price: index, base 100 in 2000 GDP per capita in PPP 95 dollars- thousand dollars Annual water usage- cubic km

Scenario Comparison: 

Scenario Comparison

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Carbon emissions

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Energy demand

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Energy prices

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GDP per capita

Four Scenarios: 

Four Scenarios 1. Business as usual. Global changes continue without great surprises or much change in energy patterns, other than those resulting from dynamics and trends already in place 2. Environmental backlash. The international environmental movement becomes more organized and violent, attacking fossil energy industries 3. High tech economy. Technological innovations accelerate beyond current expectations, and have large scale impacts in the energy supply mix and consumption patterns 4. Political turmoil. Increasing political instability and conflicts, relating to or resulting from energy needs and capacities

Business as Usual More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements: 

Business as Usual More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements

Environmental Backlash More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements: 

Environmental Backlash More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements

High TechMore than 2/3 Agreed with these statements: 

High Tech More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements

Political TurmoilMore than 2/3 Agreed with these statements: 

Political Turmoil More than 2/3 Agreed with these statements

Global Energy Scenario 1: Business as Usual: 

Global Energy Scenario 1: Business as Usual The General Skeptic Scenario

Business as Usual: 

Business as Usual The economy lurches, inflation flares, decisions are uninspired, short term, low risk and prove inadequate, the progress of technology is modest, and despite pronouncements to the contrary, countries of the world seem to act solely in their self-interest. Corporations value profits over all other considerations. The world, much as today, responds to selfish, low-torque engines of change. Bad decisions, but life goes on Chinese auto exports Global inflation / recession finally hit in about 2015 Cynicism Let’s watch the 2020 World Cup Final: Argentina vs…

Demand for Energy Grows(particularly in China): 

Demand for Energy Grows (particularly in China)

The Importance of Ethanol: 

The Importance of Ethanol Many sources: waste, cellulose, corn, sugar cane, palm oil, sweet sorghum, saw-grass, etc. Agricultural polices throughout the world adjusted to encourage this renewable supply. Genetic research into higher alcohol-producing varieties. Engine designs altered to accept fuel blends. Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Poland, India use it more and more. The EU converted a major portion of its surplus into fuels and introduced protective tariffs on imported ethanol European countries opposing genetic modification: Austria, France, Portugal, Greece and Denmark With the emphasis on ethanol, world food supply became imbalanced and hunger increased.

Global Energy Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash: 

Global Energy Scenario 2: Environmental Backlash Backlash from Nature and Backlash from Environmentalists

Environmental BacklashKey elements: 

Environmental Backlash Key elements India Ocean Nuclear accident galvanizes environmental movement, massive fisheries collapse, crop failures, plankton loss CO2 impact, Chernobyl effect Env. friendly politicians elected, create G-8 GLEEM Plan UN Eminent Scientists Group sets measures & standards Environmental viability for life support was no longer assured (60% gone or endangered today) Climate Change conviction – cigarette precedent Range from Eco-terrorism to political protests More expensive energy, food, water – depressions, recessions, stagflation Climate change slowed, but not reversed Environmental Migration increases yearly

Nuclear Power Reactors Along Indian Ocean: 

Nuclear Power Reactors Along Indian Ocean Source: International Nuclear Safety Center

Backlash from Environmental Movements: 

Backlash from Environmental Movements New and Renewed Focus on Fossil Fuels Global Warming Law Suits (cigarette science) Bio-sensors, satellite monitoring system, treaties Green Smart – network of architects and engineers Save Gaia – eco-terrorist, anti-corporate infowar Moderates: buying clubs, consumer unions, joint educ among human rights, religious, env. groups Environmentalist help corporations become “greener,” governments to create standard incentives and regulations, and media for public education

Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth Scenario: 

Shell Oil’s “Sustainable” Growth Scenario

Energy Companies hired environmentalists to help…: 

Energy Companies hired environmentalists to help… Create corporate roadmaps to respond the GLEEM Plan Add alternative energy production to fossil fuel companies Initiate Seawater Agriculture Develop synthetic biology, e.g., photosynthesis for hydrogen Retrofit buildings, flex-fuel cars, LC lighting, insulation Retrofit fossil fuel plants, home heating, and cars with carbon sequestration systems Design E-E public education, advertising (e.g., BP) Product lines that were energy-efficient, environmentally friendly, and educationally significant Create their own corporate environmental labels ISO 14001 Environmental Management System

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12 million hectares of 10% efficient PV systems could supply US total energy needs – fuels and electricity

Some additional Private business Developments: 

Some additional Private business Developments The Wealth step in to support the GLEEM Plan Green Brick and GreenMap (Group Funds) investment Seawater Agriculture Animal protein without growing the animals Ubiquitous computing (flexi-time/place), reduced some group in transportation

Additional Developments by 2020: 

Additional Developments by 2020 Brazil and Sweden oil independent Biofuels replaced 10% of petroleum by 2020 Coal and natural gas produce most electricity, wind, solar, and biomass is catching up, while carbon sequestration technology is beginning Eventually environmental movement moves to support Solar Power Satellites as alternative o nuclear power for long-term electricity solution New mix of power for vehicles sold in 2020

Round 1 Delphi Estimates: 

Round 1 Delphi Estimates

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Scenario 3 High Tech Technology Pushes Off the Limits to Growth

Limits to growth?: 

Limits to growth?

Technology pushes off the limits: 

Technology pushes off the limits World economy reaches US$ 80 trillion Internet 4.0 connects over half of humanity, which is growing stable at 7,5 billion people Technological convergence accelerates NBIC: Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno bloom Moore’s Law survives and thrives due to quantum computing, 3D circuits and sub-atomic particles Artificial intelligence reaches human intelligence levels, and a technological “singularity” is expected any time soon Biological evolution, slow and erratic, is overtaken by technological evolution, fast and designed Cyborgs and clones are becoming normal and accepted in societies, and their numbers increase faster than those of the “naturals” Humans will never be the same, in fact, the first transhumans and posthumans have already arrived Advanced robotics and space exploration are ready to take-off

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Neurons Cogno NBIC Bio Info Cells Technological Convergence: NBIC Nano Bits Atoms

Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near: 

Ray Kurzweil (MIT): The Singularity is Near www.singularity.com Bill Gates

Oil costs and reserves: 

Oil costs and reserves

Deeper and deeper: 

Deeper and deeper

Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”: 

Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”

Technology pushes off the limits: 

Technology pushes off the limits 21st century energy drivers Technological change New discoveries Resource substitution The proper energy mix Old oil and new oil Gas and more gas Coal and less coal Renewables New energy sources

The economic problem: EROEI: 

The economic problem: EROEI Gasoline taxes Carbon taxes Fixed costs Sugar versus oil Market mechanisms Supply and demand Cost considerations Energy substitutes Policy incentives

Towards a Post-Petroleum World: 

Towards a Post-Petroleum World British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum

The Energy “Internet”: 

The Energy “Internet” Buckminster Fuller Global Energy Network Institute GENI.org

Bioenergy and“eternal” energy: 

Bioenergy and “eternal” energy The cells of life Photosynthesis CO2 + 2 H2O + light → (CH2O) + O2 + H2O From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates Craig Venter and his petroleum bacteria Bacteria Clostridium acetobutylicum produces ethanol naturally Bacteria Petroleum artificiali produces “gasoline”

Sheik Ahmed Yamani, 2000 Saudi Arabia: 

Sheik Ahmed Yamani, 2000 Saudi Arabia The Stone Age did not end because of lack of stones, and the Oil Age will end soon and not because of lack of oil.

NASA: Space Solar Power(in stand-by): 

NASA: Space Solar Power (in stand-by)

Global Energy Scenario 4:: 

Global Energy Scenario 4: Political Turmoil

Political Turmoil Key elements: 

Political Turmoil Key elements Failure of nation-states to make serious decisions about serious issues. Aging population forces government cuts Terror2 – Multi-weapon 3-continent attack Organized Crime 3x total world military budgets Increasing environmental and economic migrations (water migrations in China and India trigger ethnic and racial conflicts) Increased conflicts over oil (Saudi Arabia, China, Iraq, Angola, the Caucasus, China, and Nigeria)

Terror Version 2.0: Multi-Weapon, Multi-Continent: 

Terror Version 2.0: Multi-Weapon, Multi-Continent 3-continents, multi-weapon attack: oil, airports, seaports, and cities Three twinned dirty bombs; one twin for each continent Major oil extraction points, refineries, supply depots, and shipping lane choke-points hit with conventional explosives within several minutes Human bioweapons in airports Partial alliance of Islamic and ecoteorrists with organized crime

Oil-Related Political Flash Points: 

Oil-Related Political Flash Points The conflicts in Saudi Arabia, China, Iraq, Angola, the Caucasus, China, and Nigeria The Caucasus – pipelines down, Armenians/Azerbaijan, Kurds/ Turkey undeclared wars Northwest China – pan-Islamic, pan-Turkic breaks with China disrupt oil supplies China-Japan conflicts over East China Sea oil fields Canada, US, Denmark, Russia, Norway conflict over Arctic jurisdictions for oil now more accessible due to Global Warming Nigerian Instability continues Changes in the Persian/Arab Gulf

Other Factors Behind Political Turmoil: 

Other Factors Behind Political Turmoil Income gaps continued to widen making more economic refugees increasing social tensions Environmental Backlashes in Scenario 2 compound political conflicts AIDS orphans feeding, toughening transnational organized crime