ISHTAR CONCLUSIONS AND EXPLO PERSPECTIVES

Slide1: 

Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development Key Actions: The city of tomorrow and cultural heritage Fifth framework programme of the European Community for research, technological development and demonstration activities (1998-2002) Rome Final Conference 17 – 18 March 2005 AGOSTINI , M. LELLI, E. NEGRENTI (ENEA) ISHTAR PROJECT CONCLUSIONS AND EXPLOITATION PERSPECTIVES

THE ORIGINAL PROMISES : SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL OBJECTIVES : 

THE ORIGINAL PROMISES : SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL OBJECTIVES Integration of a relevant number of existing and newly developed software tools Evolution of modelling techniques in crucial environmental areas : citizens behaviour, vehicle emissions, road safety, exposure and health effects Creation of integrated modules within the overall Suite (transport module, direct impacts module, dispersion module, overall evaluation module) Keeping Space and Time total flexibility (from 1 road in 1 hour to a network in 1 year)

Final Assessment: 

Final Assessment Has ISHTAR Project achieved all the key expected results ?

WP1 : Policies effects on citizens behaviour : 

WP1 : Policies effects on citizens behaviour WP leader ISIS (Italy) Results : a Software tool, the CTM (Cellular Transport Methodology) Task: Simulation of the effects of policies and measures on citizens behaviour in terms of modification of the mobility patterns Main output : Predicted new Origin Destination matrices representing the modified behaviour of the population related to the implementation of the postulated measure

WP2 : Integrated Transport Analysis Module : 

WP2 : Integrated Transport Analysis Module WP leader: STRATEC (B) Role of WP2 : on the basis of the modified O-D matrices provided by WP1, to describe at best the movements distribution within the city network (calculation of flows of vehicle, speed……) Results : VISUPOLIS (by PTV) born from the merging of VISUM (strategic model) with METROPOLIS (dynamic model) will be integrated within the ISHTAR Suite (good simulation of congestion and demand distribution at peak hours) and applied in Paris case study Other traffic models (e.g. TRANSCAD in Rome and Athens) will be used as input providers to the suite without a strict software integration

WP3 : Integrated Transport Direct Impacts (pollutant emissions, noise, accidents) : 

WP3 : Integrated Transport Direct Impacts (pollutant emissions, noise, accidents) WP Leader: ENEA Results : The direct impacts model integrated within the suite is TEE-2004 (Transport Energy and Environment), developed by ENEA and ASTRAN. This code has been further developed and adapted for the ISHTAR project starting from the TEE2002 version Specific achievements in ISHTAR are: Refinement of the vehicle kinematics description Inclusion of new models for: the estimation of cold start emission distribution, parking process emissions of new categories of pollutants noise emissions (acoustic power) accident occurrence (with and without pedestrians)

WP4 : Pollutants Dispersion : 

WP4 : Pollutants Dispersion WP4 leader: Graz University Task : to calculate pollutant concentration in a grid of cells of a few hundreds of meter size Results : tool provided by ARIA Technologies (F) : ARIA IMPACTS Gaussian model; gaseous pollutants and particulate matter; no chemical reactions; ‘canyon’ model recently introduced

WP4 : Noise propagation Module: 

WP4 : Noise propagation Module Results: the selected and integrated Noise model is SOUNDPLAN By Bernt &Braunstein GmbH (DE) Commercial tool adapted to the ISHTAR suite Provides noise levels (Lden) in the receptor points placed at ground level and centres of building facades Can provide also the exposure of population to noise Requires detailed 3D description of buildings

WP5: Models suite application and demonstration with 7 case studies: 

WP5: Models suite application and demonstration with 7 case studies WP5 leader: TUG ATHENS-ATTIKI : new motorway from city to airport BOLOGNA : Infrastructure in Imola BRUSSELS : selective traffic banning from city centre GRAZ : new tunnel in city (focus on noise) GRENOBLE : new Public Transport lanes PARIS : Car Free Day ROME : Selective Banning in HEAVEN area

WP6: Population Exposure and Health Impact Module: 

WP6: Population Exposure and Health Impact Module Leader : World Health Organisation Software tools produced : TEX and HIT GIS application (under Arc View by ESRI) disaggregated exposure to air pollutants Static exposure in residential areas and dynamic exposure in traffic links assessment of health impacts related to noise and air pollution Traffic Accidents split in slight, severe, fatal Use of dose-response curves Morbidity, mortality effects ‘TEX’ (Transport Exposure) EXPOSURE MODULE ‘HIT’ Health Impacts of Transport:

WP7: Air Pollution Damage of Monuments : 

WP7: Air Pollution Damage of Monuments WP7 leader : ENEA Results : a new Software developed by ENEA and PHAOS (GR) Calculation of : the crust formation the loss of material the cost of maintenance and/or restoration OPTION 1: damage on monument materials without specifying a monument OPTION 2: damage on specific monument(s) With the following options:

WP8: Software Integration and Interfacing : 

WP8: Software Integration and Interfacing WP8 leader: INRETS Tasks : Producing the ISHTAR Suite Interface Producing the ISHTAR Suite Manager Guidelines for realising ‘software connectors’ (of the various tools) Management of ISHTAR Suite Data Base Connection with a Geographic Information System

WP8: Software Integration and Interfacing : 

WP8: Software Integration and Interfacing

Slide14: 

Main INPUT data OUTPUT The ISHTAR Suite

WP9: Overall Analysis Modules: 

WP9: Overall Analysis Modules WP leader: London Metropolitan University Task : to quantify or evaluate the benefits of postulated policies compared to current status and ‘business as usual’ trends Results : New software tool realised, based on two alternative methodologies: Cost-Benefit Analysis MultiCriteria Analysis

WP11: Dissemination and Exploitation : 

WP11: Dissemination and Exploitation WP Leader : ENEA Main tasks : Definition of Networks of potential users Participation in Conferences and Special Events Dissemination Material : annual brochures, Web Site, Final Public Reports, CD, CORDIS web site Technology Implementation Plan - drafted in Jan 2003 Establishment of an ‘exploitation task force’ including partners interested in the marketing of the suite

Conclusions - Project status: 

Conclusions - Project status Single tools essentially finalised and working Integration work to be refined Interface to be improved Case studies to be re-run with the integrated software suite

Conclusions - Suite status: 

Conclusions - Suite status Prototype delivered in March 2005 (end of contract) Subject to further use by most of the ISHTAR cities To be used as a beta version by interested potential users (please ask for this !!)

Slide19: 

Which perspectives of near future marketing or further Research and Development ?

Future perspectives: 

Future perspectives Marketing the suite and calculation services after a pre commercialisation testing phase of 9 to 12 months (start on April 2006 ?). The possible outcomes of the EC Thematic Strategy on Urban Environment B. Further research and development: Regional dimension Adding more impacts on line data monitoring systems short term forecasts and adverse events management Developing ‘environment and health’ dimension

A key step : Software Agreement Signature: 

A key step : Software Agreement Signature Planning of Pre commercialisation and Marketing phases following project conclusion Involves partners and external organisations (B&B ... PTV .... ESRI.....) Anticipates revenues from Suite sale and calculation services Defines the duty of a warranty period following project end Implies the activation of an Exploitation Task Force including partners wishing to participate in the commercialisation Major input for the Technology Implementation Plan due at project end

Activities for the pre commercialisation phase: 

Activities for the pre commercialisation phase Further testing of the modules and of the integrated suite Refinement of the interface and assessment of the software connectors vs the data model Agreement of an upgrading activity for all components Agreement and implementation of error management standards and of software quality criteria Definition of the principles and detailed terms for the marketing of the tool and the provision of services

Who will market the suite ?: 

Who will market the suite ? A legal entity being one of the partner, or a group of sw providers, or a new company e.g being a spin-off of a partner Example : Spin off project denominated ‘Spinta’ (‘push’) involves ENEA, receives funds from the Italian government and aims at the exploitation of research projects results through the building of new enterprises >>> New ‘exploitation company’ in 12 months ?!

R&D in FP6 and ISHTAR follow up: 

R&D in FP6 and ISHTAR follow up Interest shown by several partners for an ISHTAR future in FP6 Possibility to cover part of the costs for the planned Pre commercialisation Possible integration with other complementary FP5 projects (see initiatives from LUTR cluster) CLEAR cluster on AQ Modelling can work as a ‘lab’ of proposals Strategic directions : more impacts (e.g. on water), regional scale, complementary models (pedestrians, other emission sources), improved exposure model Proposition of an Integrated Project expected (e.g. E&H related)

Contacts: 

Contacts ISHTAR Web Site www.ishtar-fp5-eu.com Emanuele Negrenti (Project Coordinator) negrenti@casaccia.enea.it Alessandro Agostini (Responsible for Dissemination and Exploitation) alessandro.agostini@casaccia.enea.it

‘ISHTAR’: 

‘ISHTAR’ In the land of Sumer Ishtar was the goddess of Love and War ! The word means ‘Star’, very close to the English term !… In the cities of ‘yesterday’ (e.g. Babylon) citizens could reach a balance between ‘development’ and ‘environmental quality’ The ‘city of tomorrow’ will be a great life opportunity or a place of increasing conflicts from where to leave ? The answer depends on the commitment of us all !