Presentation Transcript
Middle East Oil Dependence and stability : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 Middle East Oil Dependence and stability IEPE/IFE Seminar 2 Oct 2000
John V. Mitchell
Outline : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 Outline Nature of the problem
The frontiers of dependence
Exterior view
Interior view
Nature of the solutions
The problem: where is the frontier between the Middle East and the world? : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 The problem: where is the frontier between the Middle East and the world? Geopolitical Social Economic
Slide4 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 The problem: where is the frontier between the Middle East and the world? Cold war
Israel
Sovereignty Middle East
countries Geopolitical Social Economic
Slide5 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 The problem: where is the frontier between the Middle East and the world? Geopolitical Social Economic
Slide6 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 The problem: where is the frontier between the Middle East and the world? Geopolitical Social Economic
Slide7 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 Each country strikes a different balance Saudi Arabia Geopolitical Social Economic Trade and technology Protected by US Isolates own culture
Slide8 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 World dependence on Middle East
Slide9 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 Share of 38mmbd capacity expansion 2000-20
Slide10 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000
Slide11 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 NET FUEL EXPORTS AS % OF NON-FUEL IMPORTS ($)
Slide12 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 Saudi Arabia: from low to high ‘absorber’
Slide13 : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 OIL RESERVES VERSUS POPULATION 1997-8
The impossible cartel : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 The impossible cartel
Summary of the oil dimensions : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 Summary of the oil dimensions Middle East is important but not dominant in world oil supply
World oil market dominates Middle East economies
Cartel less likely than competition(except in extremis)
Geopolitical connections : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 Geopolitical connections Cold war : policy without ideology
Israel-Palestine remains a problem
Sovereignty is at risk
Social disconnections : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 Social disconnections Governance ( transparency, democracy)
Human rights ( women’s rights)
Religious protection - aggression
What are the risks and to whom ? : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 What are the risks and to whom ? State failure
Domestic change
Political sanctions ( which way?)
The paradoxes of generalisation : John V Mitchell
Oct 2000 The paradoxes of generalisation Each country has different project for its frontiers
The US has a project for the Middle East
Europe has patchwork policies
Catch the
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