logging in or signing up Booch Lecture Coralie Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 250 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: January 04, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript The Promise The Limits The Beauty of Software : The Promise The Limits The Beauty of Software Grady Booch IBM FellowSlide2: Our civilization runs on software. Bjarne StroustrupSlide3: You have riches and freedom here but I feel no sense of faith or direction. You have so many computers, why don’t you use them in the search for love? Lech Walesa Epstein, J., Yale Book of Quotations, New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press, 2006The Promise: Software-intensive systems can amplify human intelligence They cannot replace human judgment Software-intensive systems can fuse, coordinate, classify, and analyze information They cannot create knowledge The Promise Software-intensive systems can amplify human intelligence Software-intensive systems can fuse, coordinate, classify, and analyze information •The Limits: Not everything we want to build can be built There exist pragmatic theoretical and technical limits Not everything we want to build should be built There exist moral, economic, social, and political limits The Limits Not everything we want to build can be built Not everything we want to build should be built •The Beauty: Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Software is invisible to most of the world The best software is simple, elegant, and full of drama as manifest in the cunning patterns that form its structure and command its behavior The Beauty Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans •The Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans The Internet provides an environment where terrorists and other criminal enterprises can operate with little fear of detection The Internet changes the way that individuals communicate and businesses collaborate • Internet Mapping Project @ http://www.cheswick.com/ches/map/index.htmlThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans The Web creates a greater opportunity for the exploitation of children as well as fraud and theft directed against individuals and organizations The Web provides unprecedented mechanisms for social networking • Britney Spears @ http://www.myspace.com/britneyspearsThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Software-intensive systems can erode personal privacy and other basic human rights Software-intensive systems permit real time and distributed access to information • WeatherLink @ http://www.davisnet.comThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Email and the aging of digital archives threatens the preservation of history Email and other software-intensive mechanisms increase the velocity of communication • Project Gutenberg @ http://www.gutenberg.orgThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Piracy disrupts the economic underpinnings of traditional media companies and can dilute the intellectual property of artists Software-intensive systems create new forms of artistic expression • Halion @ http://www.steinberg.netThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Software-intensive systems are at the center of a new generation of offensive and defensive weapons Software-intensive systems enable and accelerate scientific research • Entrez Genome Project @ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrezThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans The complexity of software-intensive systems continues to grow; this complexity impacts its users as well as the stakeholders who develop, deploy, operate, and evolve them Software is a part of the very fabric of civilization, living in its interstitial spaces •Alan Turing: The Promise: Alan Turing: The Promise I believe that in about 50 years time it will be possible to program computers…to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70% chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning. Alan Turing Turing, A., Computing Machinery and Intelligence, Mind, vol. 49, 1950Alan Turing: The Limits: Alan Turing: The Limits This special property of digital computers, that they can mimic any discrete-state machine, is described by saying that they are universal machines. Alan Turing Turing, A., On Computable Numbers, Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society, Series 2, 42, 1936Alan Turing: The Beauty: Alan Turing: The Beauty Mathematics, rightly viewed, possesses not only truth but supreme beauty, a beauty cold and austere like that of sculpture. Alan Turing The Alan Turing Memorial @ http://www.btinternet.com/~glynhughes/sculpture/turing.htm Alan Turing: The Contradiction: Alan Turing: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Later in his life, Turing himself faced personal oppression by the society he helped preserve With his work in cryptanalysis, Turing helped defeat Hitler’s oppressive forces •Alan Turing: The Discoveries: Alan Turing: The Discoveries 1935: Quantum mechanics, probability, logic 1936-38: Turing machine, computability 1938-39: Logic, algebra, number theory 1939-42: Bombe (machine for Enigma decryption) 1947-48: Computer and software design 1948: Programming, neural nets, AI 1950: First serious mathematical use of computer 1952: Non-linear theory of biological growth Hodges, A., Alan Turing: The Enigma, New York, New York: Walker & Company, 2000The Limits of Software: The Limits of Software Laws of physics Laws of software Challenge of algorithms Difficulty of distribution & concurrency Problems of design Importance of organization Impact of economics Influence of politics Limits of human imagination •Laws of Physics: Laws of Physics The speed of light Has pragmatic implications for distributed systems Relativistic effects There is no such thing as absolute time Quantum effects There are theoretical as well as practical limits to information density Thermodynamic effects Software is weightless/containers for software are not Computation dissipates heatLaws of Software: Laws of Software Sometimes we can’t do it Halting problem Gödel's theorem/highly non-computable problems Sometimes we can’t afford to do it Sorting problem/Towers of Hanoi/chess Exponential time Sometimes we just don’t know Traveling salesman/scheduling/bin packing NP complete Harel, D., Computers, Ltd: What they Really Can’t Do, Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 2003 Challenge of Algorithms: Challenge of Algorithms Compression Photorealistic rendering Speech recognition Simulation Knowledge representation Intimate/massive parallelism Halo 3 @ http://www.bungie.net •Difficulty of Distribution/Concurrency: Difficulty of Distribution/Concurrency A distributed system is one in which the failure of a computer you didn’t even know existed can render your computer unusable (Leslie Lamport) The average developer does not have, as a core competency, the ability to develop secure, concurrent, and distributed systemsProblems of Design: Problems of Design The entire history of software engineering is that of the rise in levels of abstraction The limitations of human understandability Building for resilience Sometimes worse is better The discovery of patternsImportance of Organization: Importance of Organization All meaningful development is formed by the resonance of activities that beat at different rhythms The activities of the individual developer Social dynamics among small sets of developers Dynamics among teams of teams Work products and work flows Parallel development The cacophony of stakeholders The tension of high and low ceremony processesImpact of Economics: Impact of Economics Performance = Effort or time Complexity = Volume of human-generated code Process = Methods, notations, maturity Team = Skill set, experience, motivation Tools = Software process automation Performance = (Complexity) (Process) * (Team) * (Tools) Influence of Politics: Influence of Politics Success as defined by the software development team is sometimes misaligned with success as defined by the management team Software as a strategic weapon Software as a pawnLimits of Human Imagination: Limits of Human Imagination The visionaries Alan Kay, Danny Hillis, Marvin Minsky, Rodney Brooks, Bill Joy, Bill Gates, Adele Goldburg, Tim Berners-Lee, Nicholas Negroponte… The dreamers Arthur C. Clarke, Neal StephensonSlide29: Software development has been, is, and will remain fundamentally hardWhat We Know: What We Know Fundamentals Craft crisp and resilient abstractions Maintain a good separation of concerns Create a balance distribution of responsibilities Process Grow a system’s architecture through the incremental and iterative release of testable executablesWhat We Know: What We Know Reuse Patterns Languages Architectural codification of certain domainsRepresenting Software Architecture: Representing Software Architecture Logical View End-user Functionality Implementation View Programmers Configuration management Process View Deployment View System topology Communication Provisioning System engineering Conceptual Physical Use Case View Kruchen, P. The 4+1 Model View, IEEE Computer, vol. 12 (6), November 1995Gallery of Software Architecture: Air Traffic Control: Gallery of Software Architecture: Air Traffic Control Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: C3I: Gallery of Software Architecture: C3I Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: Games: Gallery of Software Architecture: Games Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Architecture: Games: Gallery of Architecture: Games Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: Google: Gallery of Software Architecture: Google Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: Pathfinder : Gallery of Software Architecture: Pathfinder Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: Speech Recognition : Gallery of Software Architecture: Speech Recognition Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryMovements in Web-centric Architectures: Movements in Web-centric Architectures Simple documents Colorful clients Simple scripting Rise of middleware Rise of simple frameworks Emergence of dynamic frameworks Semantic webHandbook of Software Architecture: Handbook of Software Architecture No architectural reference exists for software-intensive systems Goals of the handbook Codify the architecture of a large collection of interesting software-intensive systems Study these architectural patterns in the context of the engineering forces that shaped them Satisfy my curiosity Handbook of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecturePreservation Of Classic Software: Preservation Of Classic Software No comprehensive and intentional activity has yet been undertaken to preserve the industry’s seminal software artifacts There are a number of reasons to act now Many of the authors of such systems are still alive Many others may have the source code or design documents for these systems collecting dust in their offices or garages Time is our enemy Computer History Museum @ http://www.computerhistory.orgHow We Got Here: How We Got Here 1910s beginning of automation 1920s beginning of expansion 1930s beginning of dependence 1940s beginning of von Neuman machines 1950s rise of the machines 1960s rise of the languages and methods 1970s death of the mainframe 1980s age of the personal computer 1990s age of the Internet and new methods 2000s retrenchmentThe Current State: The Current State The typical software-intensive system is Continuously evolving Connected, distributed & concurrent Multilingual and multiplatform Secure Autonomic Most systems are actually systems of systems Services and other messaging mechanisms dominateWhere We Are Going: Where We Are Going 2010s age of transparency 2020s total dependence 2030s rise of the machinesThe Future State: The Future State Every advance leading to the future state of the world requires the presence of software yet-unwritten as of todayLanguages & Algorithms: Languages & Algorithms Most programmers still write algorithmic snippets in the context of a sea of objects Legacy XML, Java, C++, and UML persist Some algorithmic breakthroughs have emerged Searching massive quantities of information is still a bit of a struggle Domain-specific frameworks are mainstream • •Platforms: Platforms Moore’s law has died The typical personal computer contains multiple processors, a petabyte of main memory, an exabyte of external memory, and untethered terabit connectivity Virtual high resolution displays dominate; 3D windows, mice, gestures, and voice are the usual mechanisms for interaction Form factors will change such that most personal computers will be wearable or embedded; most software is embedded in devices • •Operating Systems & Middleware: Operating Systems & Middleware Operating systems have largely been commoditized Middleware that does transaction isolation, load balancing, resource management, and data access still dominates but it too has largely been commoditized, forcing the platform vendors to keep growing the value pile • •Connection: Connection More than ever, the network is the computer Monolithic -> client/server -> Web -> grid Network access is a global utility Not everything is an enterprise system, but most applications are connected to several • •Security: Security New kinds of cybercrime have arisen Unlimited piles of money still do not yield secure systems Air gaps are still not enough Rolling failures still plague some systems • •Autonomics: Autonomics No computer has yet passed the Turing Test (but we have come close) Most interesting systems exhibit signs of agency and self-repair • Star Trek@ http://www.startrek.com •Developer Experience: Developer Experience Most developers have grown up believing that the Internet has always existed Most programming occurs on the edge of a system and in the interstitial spaces among systems Most programming is now done by domain-specific developers who only incidentally know how to program There have been only incremental improvements in programmer productivity and the programming model CLI-> IDE -> XDE -> CDE • •Slide55: It is a tremendous privilege to be a software professional it is also a tremendous responsibility •Slide56: The Promise The Limits The Beauty of Software Grady Booch IBM Fellow You do not have the permission to view this presentation. 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Booch Lecture Coralie Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 250 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: January 04, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript The Promise The Limits The Beauty of Software : The Promise The Limits The Beauty of Software Grady Booch IBM FellowSlide2: Our civilization runs on software. Bjarne StroustrupSlide3: You have riches and freedom here but I feel no sense of faith or direction. You have so many computers, why don’t you use them in the search for love? Lech Walesa Epstein, J., Yale Book of Quotations, New Haven, Connecticut: Yale University Press, 2006The Promise: Software-intensive systems can amplify human intelligence They cannot replace human judgment Software-intensive systems can fuse, coordinate, classify, and analyze information They cannot create knowledge The Promise Software-intensive systems can amplify human intelligence Software-intensive systems can fuse, coordinate, classify, and analyze information •The Limits: Not everything we want to build can be built There exist pragmatic theoretical and technical limits Not everything we want to build should be built There exist moral, economic, social, and political limits The Limits Not everything we want to build can be built Not everything we want to build should be built •The Beauty: Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Software is invisible to most of the world The best software is simple, elegant, and full of drama as manifest in the cunning patterns that form its structure and command its behavior The Beauty Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans •The Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans The Internet provides an environment where terrorists and other criminal enterprises can operate with little fear of detection The Internet changes the way that individuals communicate and businesses collaborate • Internet Mapping Project @ http://www.cheswick.com/ches/map/index.htmlThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans The Web creates a greater opportunity for the exploitation of children as well as fraud and theft directed against individuals and organizations The Web provides unprecedented mechanisms for social networking • Britney Spears @ http://www.myspace.com/britneyspearsThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Software-intensive systems can erode personal privacy and other basic human rights Software-intensive systems permit real time and distributed access to information • WeatherLink @ http://www.davisnet.comThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Email and the aging of digital archives threatens the preservation of history Email and other software-intensive mechanisms increase the velocity of communication • Project Gutenberg @ http://www.gutenberg.orgThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Piracy disrupts the economic underpinnings of traditional media companies and can dilute the intellectual property of artists Software-intensive systems create new forms of artistic expression • Halion @ http://www.steinberg.netThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Software-intensive systems are at the center of a new generation of offensive and defensive weapons Software-intensive systems enable and accelerate scientific research • Entrez Genome Project @ http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrezThe Contradiction: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans The complexity of software-intensive systems continues to grow; this complexity impacts its users as well as the stakeholders who develop, deploy, operate, and evolve them Software is a part of the very fabric of civilization, living in its interstitial spaces •Alan Turing: The Promise: Alan Turing: The Promise I believe that in about 50 years time it will be possible to program computers…to make them play the imitation game so well that an average interrogator will not have more than 70% chance of making the right identification after five minutes of questioning. Alan Turing Turing, A., Computing Machinery and Intelligence, Mind, vol. 49, 1950Alan Turing: The Limits: Alan Turing: The Limits This special property of digital computers, that they can mimic any discrete-state machine, is described by saying that they are universal machines. Alan Turing Turing, A., On Computable Numbers, Proceedings of the London Mathematical Society, Series 2, 42, 1936Alan Turing: The Beauty: Alan Turing: The Beauty Mathematics, rightly viewed, possesses not only truth but supreme beauty, a beauty cold and austere like that of sculpture. Alan Turing The Alan Turing Memorial @ http://www.btinternet.com/~glynhughes/sculpture/turing.htm Alan Turing: The Contradiction: Alan Turing: The Contradiction Software-intensive systems are perhaps the most intellectually complex artifacts created by humans Later in his life, Turing himself faced personal oppression by the society he helped preserve With his work in cryptanalysis, Turing helped defeat Hitler’s oppressive forces •Alan Turing: The Discoveries: Alan Turing: The Discoveries 1935: Quantum mechanics, probability, logic 1936-38: Turing machine, computability 1938-39: Logic, algebra, number theory 1939-42: Bombe (machine for Enigma decryption) 1947-48: Computer and software design 1948: Programming, neural nets, AI 1950: First serious mathematical use of computer 1952: Non-linear theory of biological growth Hodges, A., Alan Turing: The Enigma, New York, New York: Walker & Company, 2000The Limits of Software: The Limits of Software Laws of physics Laws of software Challenge of algorithms Difficulty of distribution & concurrency Problems of design Importance of organization Impact of economics Influence of politics Limits of human imagination •Laws of Physics: Laws of Physics The speed of light Has pragmatic implications for distributed systems Relativistic effects There is no such thing as absolute time Quantum effects There are theoretical as well as practical limits to information density Thermodynamic effects Software is weightless/containers for software are not Computation dissipates heatLaws of Software: Laws of Software Sometimes we can’t do it Halting problem Gödel's theorem/highly non-computable problems Sometimes we can’t afford to do it Sorting problem/Towers of Hanoi/chess Exponential time Sometimes we just don’t know Traveling salesman/scheduling/bin packing NP complete Harel, D., Computers, Ltd: What they Really Can’t Do, Oxford, England: Oxford University Press, 2003 Challenge of Algorithms: Challenge of Algorithms Compression Photorealistic rendering Speech recognition Simulation Knowledge representation Intimate/massive parallelism Halo 3 @ http://www.bungie.net •Difficulty of Distribution/Concurrency: Difficulty of Distribution/Concurrency A distributed system is one in which the failure of a computer you didn’t even know existed can render your computer unusable (Leslie Lamport) The average developer does not have, as a core competency, the ability to develop secure, concurrent, and distributed systemsProblems of Design: Problems of Design The entire history of software engineering is that of the rise in levels of abstraction The limitations of human understandability Building for resilience Sometimes worse is better The discovery of patternsImportance of Organization: Importance of Organization All meaningful development is formed by the resonance of activities that beat at different rhythms The activities of the individual developer Social dynamics among small sets of developers Dynamics among teams of teams Work products and work flows Parallel development The cacophony of stakeholders The tension of high and low ceremony processesImpact of Economics: Impact of Economics Performance = Effort or time Complexity = Volume of human-generated code Process = Methods, notations, maturity Team = Skill set, experience, motivation Tools = Software process automation Performance = (Complexity) (Process) * (Team) * (Tools) Influence of Politics: Influence of Politics Success as defined by the software development team is sometimes misaligned with success as defined by the management team Software as a strategic weapon Software as a pawnLimits of Human Imagination: Limits of Human Imagination The visionaries Alan Kay, Danny Hillis, Marvin Minsky, Rodney Brooks, Bill Joy, Bill Gates, Adele Goldburg, Tim Berners-Lee, Nicholas Negroponte… The dreamers Arthur C. Clarke, Neal StephensonSlide29: Software development has been, is, and will remain fundamentally hardWhat We Know: What We Know Fundamentals Craft crisp and resilient abstractions Maintain a good separation of concerns Create a balance distribution of responsibilities Process Grow a system’s architecture through the incremental and iterative release of testable executablesWhat We Know: What We Know Reuse Patterns Languages Architectural codification of certain domainsRepresenting Software Architecture: Representing Software Architecture Logical View End-user Functionality Implementation View Programmers Configuration management Process View Deployment View System topology Communication Provisioning System engineering Conceptual Physical Use Case View Kruchen, P. The 4+1 Model View, IEEE Computer, vol. 12 (6), November 1995Gallery of Software Architecture: Air Traffic Control: Gallery of Software Architecture: Air Traffic Control Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: C3I: Gallery of Software Architecture: C3I Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: Games: Gallery of Software Architecture: Games Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Architecture: Games: Gallery of Architecture: Games Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: Google: Gallery of Software Architecture: Google Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: Pathfinder : Gallery of Software Architecture: Pathfinder Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryGallery of Software Architecture: Speech Recognition : Gallery of Software Architecture: Speech Recognition Gallery of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecture/architecture.jsp?part=GalleryMovements in Web-centric Architectures: Movements in Web-centric Architectures Simple documents Colorful clients Simple scripting Rise of middleware Rise of simple frameworks Emergence of dynamic frameworks Semantic webHandbook of Software Architecture: Handbook of Software Architecture No architectural reference exists for software-intensive systems Goals of the handbook Codify the architecture of a large collection of interesting software-intensive systems Study these architectural patterns in the context of the engineering forces that shaped them Satisfy my curiosity Handbook of Software Architecture @ http://www.booch.com/architecturePreservation Of Classic Software: Preservation Of Classic Software No comprehensive and intentional activity has yet been undertaken to preserve the industry’s seminal software artifacts There are a number of reasons to act now Many of the authors of such systems are still alive Many others may have the source code or design documents for these systems collecting dust in their offices or garages Time is our enemy Computer History Museum @ http://www.computerhistory.orgHow We Got Here: How We Got Here 1910s beginning of automation 1920s beginning of expansion 1930s beginning of dependence 1940s beginning of von Neuman machines 1950s rise of the machines 1960s rise of the languages and methods 1970s death of the mainframe 1980s age of the personal computer 1990s age of the Internet and new methods 2000s retrenchmentThe Current State: The Current State The typical software-intensive system is Continuously evolving Connected, distributed & concurrent Multilingual and multiplatform Secure Autonomic Most systems are actually systems of systems Services and other messaging mechanisms dominateWhere We Are Going: Where We Are Going 2010s age of transparency 2020s total dependence 2030s rise of the machinesThe Future State: The Future State Every advance leading to the future state of the world requires the presence of software yet-unwritten as of todayLanguages & Algorithms: Languages & Algorithms Most programmers still write algorithmic snippets in the context of a sea of objects Legacy XML, Java, C++, and UML persist Some algorithmic breakthroughs have emerged Searching massive quantities of information is still a bit of a struggle Domain-specific frameworks are mainstream • •Platforms: Platforms Moore’s law has died The typical personal computer contains multiple processors, a petabyte of main memory, an exabyte of external memory, and untethered terabit connectivity Virtual high resolution displays dominate; 3D windows, mice, gestures, and voice are the usual mechanisms for interaction Form factors will change such that most personal computers will be wearable or embedded; most software is embedded in devices • •Operating Systems & Middleware: Operating Systems & Middleware Operating systems have largely been commoditized Middleware that does transaction isolation, load balancing, resource management, and data access still dominates but it too has largely been commoditized, forcing the platform vendors to keep growing the value pile • •Connection: Connection More than ever, the network is the computer Monolithic -> client/server -> Web -> grid Network access is a global utility Not everything is an enterprise system, but most applications are connected to several • •Security: Security New kinds of cybercrime have arisen Unlimited piles of money still do not yield secure systems Air gaps are still not enough Rolling failures still plague some systems • •Autonomics: Autonomics No computer has yet passed the Turing Test (but we have come close) Most interesting systems exhibit signs of agency and self-repair • Star Trek@ http://www.startrek.com •Developer Experience: Developer Experience Most developers have grown up believing that the Internet has always existed Most programming occurs on the edge of a system and in the interstitial spaces among systems Most programming is now done by domain-specific developers who only incidentally know how to program There have been only incremental improvements in programmer productivity and the programming model CLI-> IDE -> XDE -> CDE • •Slide55: It is a tremendous privilege to be a software professional it is also a tremendous responsibility •Slide56: The Promise The Limits The Beauty of Software Grady Booch IBM Fellow